Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Panhandle snow mid month on GFS. 2-3 frosts around here. First major blue norther. We'll see.
Stratton20
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Model trends over the past 24 hours have been very positive! Lets hope this continues🤞🤞
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Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:27 am Model trends over the past 24 hours have been very positive! Lets hope this continues🤞🤞
The GEFS is having a weaker signal now
Kingwood36
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Models are just having one hell of a time trying to figure out what to do
Stratton20
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Iceresistance of course it is, but im buying it, the operational euro and GFS runs have been consistent the past 36 hours
Iceresistance
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18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:47 pm 18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
1078 MB on the 0z GFS. Crazy.
Iceresistance
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 05, 2021 12:07 am
Iceresistance wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:47 pm 18z GFS has a 1070 MB high over Greenland by Late-December
1078 MB on the 0z GFS. Crazy.
Good grief! That's near the record of 1080 MB! :shock:
Kingwood36
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It won't verify...9 times out of 10 they never do
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snowman65
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we could have 60's-80's all winter except for a 3 day last with ice and there will be pople that say we had a harsh winter🤣🤣🤣
Stratton20
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Im just gonna call this years winter early spring, its going to be a bust, I just dont see any cold snaps this season, oh well tine to move to sprint
Cpv17
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This is what happens when you have colder water and lower heights in the NE Pacific south of Alaska. It’s called a +EPO and it’s absolutely killing our winter. Need to start chipping away on this so we can have a backloaded winter.
Stratton20
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im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O

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Stratton20
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Iceresistance far out but thats definitely something that ive heard about today, fingers crossed that the EPO goes negative around christmas🤞🤞🤞
Kingwood36
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Well the next 12 days look depressing..tank tops and shorts
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snowman65
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Iceresistance wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:00 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O

Image
nahh...not buying it this year
Stratton20
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snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
Iceresistance
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
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