Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us

[Iceresistance]

Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us

There is a SE Ridge on the 12z GFS in the medium/long range, but that feature gets defeated by -EPO Trough & -AO Push.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance yep I saw that, interesting pattern ahead, showed some winter storms forming over Texas but thays super far out

[Cpv17]

I think the first few days or possibly even the first week of February might be near average temps or slightly above it but after that I’m seeing a potential major pattern change.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yep the GFS is showing signs of a big pattern change, looks like the PNA will stay negative for a while but it looks to trend back towards neutral around the 5th or 6th

[Kingwood36]

Lol I'm honestly sick of hearing about a pattern change...all talk and no action

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 a pattern change is coming... we all said the samething last january and look what happened in february, most model guidance is bringing the PNA back towards neutral around the first week of february, that is very good news for us

[Stratton20]

9 days out on the 00z CMC , probably gonna change on the next run, but any sort of system that shows up within 10 days on a model is at least something of interest

[Cpv17]

There’s a massive difference between the Euro ensemble and the GFS ensemble in the medium to long range. Models are definitely confused right now.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that