Yeah that looks to be headed out west. Not down the central part of the country.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Winter Long Range Discussion
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Nooooo, not the SE Ridge!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
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How is this not hyping anyone? Lol
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Because it’s probably not coming here lol
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With the MJO out of action right now, it's really messing up the models, making forecasts over 5 days out very diffcult.
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The only good news I can see say right now is the 12z GEFS heading into the first week of february is trending cooler than normal conditions for the central US
I actually don’t really think the models look all that bad. I see a lot of average or below average temps for the next couple weeks.
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Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us
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There is a SE Ridge on the 12z GFS in the medium/long range, but that feature gets defeated by -EPO Trough & -AO Push.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:36 pm Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us
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Iceresistance yep I saw that, interesting pattern ahead, showed some winter storms forming over Texas but thays super far out
I think the first few days or possibly even the first week of February might be near average temps or slightly above it but after that I’m seeing a potential major pattern change.
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CPV17 yep the GFS is showing signs of a big pattern change, looks like the PNA will stay negative for a while but it looks to trend back towards neutral around the 5th or 6th
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Lol I'm honestly sick of hearing about a pattern change...all talk and no action
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Kingwood36 a pattern change is coming... we all said the samething last january and look what happened in february, most model guidance is bringing the PNA back towards neutral around the first week of february, that is very good news for us
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There’s a massive difference between the Euro ensemble and the GFS ensemble in the medium to long range. Models are definitely confused right now.
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CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that
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