Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Im just gonna call this years winter early spring, its going to be a bust, I just dont see any cold snaps this season, oh well tine to move to sprint
Cpv17
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This is what happens when you have colder water and lower heights in the NE Pacific south of Alaska. It’s called a +EPO and it’s absolutely killing our winter. Need to start chipping away on this so we can have a backloaded winter.
Stratton20
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im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Iceresistance
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O

Image
Stratton20
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Iceresistance far out but thats definitely something that ive heard about today, fingers crossed that the EPO goes negative around christmas🤞🤞🤞
Kingwood36
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Well the next 12 days look depressing..tank tops and shorts
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snowman65
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Iceresistance wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:00 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 11:53 am im starting to hear that after christmas their are signs that the EPO might go negative
Take a look at this! O_O

Image
nahh...not buying it this year
Stratton20
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snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
Iceresistance
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
Kingwood36
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Well the cool down was nice while it lasted all of one day
Cpv17
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Iceresistance wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:00 am
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:38 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Mon Dec 06, 2021 5:38 pm snowman65 it literally is only december.......
Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.
If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?
I think November was cold, December was warm, January was kinda warm too, then February was very cold. At least that’s how I remember it.
Kingwood36
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Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
JDsGN
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Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.
Kingwood36
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JDsGN wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:52 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:42 am Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?
Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.
I did also but it's still showing a warning every time I refresh the oage...might be the site itself..
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tireman4
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I DMd Steve. I think the certificate is out of date.
Stratton20
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12z GFS for the week of christmas is now suggesting a disruption of the polar vortex allowing for some arctic air to spill southward, the trough is beginning to develop around the 24th
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Kingwood36
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Anyone still having problems accessing the site?
Stratton20
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We are starting to see signs of a major pattern change in days 11-12 on the 12z GFS, lets see if this trend continues
Kingwood36
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Didn't the 12z show a rain snow mix here in south east texas? I know it's 200 plus hrs out but it could be catching on to something
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