Winter Long Range Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:40 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:32 pm
This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro
That definitely looks pretty good.

Stratton20
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:42 pm

CPV17 yep! And the fact that the euro isnt the only model showing this setup is a good thing or something to watch

Stratton20
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Jan 12, 2022 11:41 pm

Tonights GFS run got really interesting
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Stratton20
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jan 13, 2022 1:28 pm

12z GEFS ensemble members for next friday
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Stratton20
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:41 am

The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference
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Cpv17
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:38 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:41 am
The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference
Always go with the ensemble, especially this far out.

Stratton20
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:43 am

Cpv17 I mean technically 6 days isnt that far out, but its weird to see the operational run that much “warmer” but fwiw 7 of the 20 GEFS members still show a potential wintery precip setup, also 00z Euro run is out

Iceresistance
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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:43 pm

This may not happen since it's in the long range (18z GFS) but YIKES! :shock:

Image

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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:49 pm

Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant

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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Post by Iceresistance » Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:52 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:49 pm
Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant
I remembered seeing models that were similar to this last year, but it was pushed back to February, could this also repeat that? Only time will tell if that's true . . .

EDIT: I do want to mention that the PNA is expected to become Neutral at the end of this month.

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