Winter Long Range Discussion

[Kingwood36]

Well the cool down was nice while it lasted all of one day

[Cpv17]

snowman65 it literally is only december.......

Yeah. If the MJO can get out of phase 6 into 7 that will start helping the EPO and we could have a backloaded winter. Late December around Christmas towards New Years could be interesting.

If I recall correctly, was Winter 2020-2021 mostly backloaded as well?

I think November was cold, December was warm, January was kinda warm too, then February was very cold. At least that’s how I remember it.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?

[JDsGN]

Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?

Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone else having problems accessing the site for safety reasons?

Yes I just got a warning i had to accept a security risk to access. Once i accepted its been normal.

I did also but it's still showing a warning every time I refresh the oage...might be the site itself..

[tireman4]

I DMd Steve. I think the certificate is out of date.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS for the week of christmas is now suggesting a disruption of the polar vortex allowing for some arctic air to spill southward, the trough is beginning to develop around the 24th

[Kingwood36]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

[Stratton20]

We are starting to see signs of a major pattern change in days 11-12 on the 12z GFS, lets see if this trend continues

[Kingwood36]

Didn't the 12z show a rain snow mix here in south east texas? I know it's 200 plus hrs out but it could be catching on to something

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 a little bit yes by hour 280 or so, far out, but the gfs has been showing this arctic blast the past 3 runs, hope the trend continues

[Cpv17]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.

[Kingwood36]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Once I accepted the security risk, it’s been working normally for me. It said the certificate is out of date.

I accepted it also and its still not working on my end on internet explorer..working fine now on Firefox

[Stratton20]

The 00z GFS run by days 11-12 continues to show a major pattern change potentially on the table around the 22nd, this would send arctic air plunging southward as the porlar vortex weakens and a piece of energy breaks off

[Cpv17]

I’m still not too confident. The GEFS looks terrible but it’s looking more promising than it did a few days ago.

[Kingwood36]

Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont

[Cpv17]

Ya, I'm 60/40 on this..40% it will and 60% it wont

Same here. Need to see more support from the ensembles.

[Stratton20]

Im 60% confident in a pattern change, this warm weather pattern will have to come to an end eventually

[Iceresistance]

Anyone still having problems accessing the site?

Yes, you have to accept the risk. (Finally in!)

[Iceresistance]

GFS has been showing snow for Oklahoma at around the 20th or 21st, it has trended south to DFW lately as well.