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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:32 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Yeah that looks to be headed out west. Not down the central part of the country.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:38 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 Yep, hope the ridge doesn’t make a return, that would be a blowtorch pattern, good thing this is 16 days out so it’s definitely gonna change

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 7:04 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 20, 2022 6:23 pm Iceresistance saw it, problem is the dreaded SE Ridge is showinf up on the run at the same time period
Nooooo, not the SE Ridge!

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2022 11:42 pm
by Stratton20
00z GFS has moved up this potential dip in the jet from hour 384 to hour 312, when a model moves up something by a few days that’s something to definitely watch

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:14 pm
by Iceresistance
How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:18 pm
by Stratton20
18z GEFS sniffing out maybe another shot at wintry mischief late next weekend? Seems to be the next Sunday timeframe

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:17 pm
by Cpv17
Iceresistance wrote: Fri Jan 21, 2022 10:14 pm How is this not hyping anyone? Lol

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Because it’s probably not coming here lol

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 1:57 pm
by Iceresistance
With the MJO out of action right now, it's really messing up the models, making forecasts over 5 days out very diffcult.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 2:03 pm
by Stratton20
The only good news I can see say right now is the 12z GEFS heading into the first week of february is trending cooler than normal conditions for the central US

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:29 pm
by Cpv17
I actually don’t really think the models look all that bad. I see a lot of average or below average temps for the next couple weeks.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:36 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us😆

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:29 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:36 pm Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from us😆
There is a SE Ridge on the 12z GFS in the medium/long range, but that feature gets defeated by -EPO Trough & -AO Push.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:45 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep I saw that, interesting pattern ahead, showed some winter storms forming over Texas but thays super far out

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:22 pm
by Cpv17
I think the first few days or possibly even the first week of February might be near average temps or slightly above it but after that I’m seeing a potential major pattern change.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:30 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 yep the GFS is showing signs of a big pattern change, looks like the PNA will stay negative for a while but it looks to trend back towards neutral around the 5th or 6th

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:47 pm
by Kingwood36
Lol I'm honestly sick of hearing about a pattern change...all talk and no action

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:01 pm
by Stratton20
Kingwood36 a pattern change is coming... we all said the samething last january and look what happened in february, most model guidance is bringing the PNA back towards neutral around the first week of february, that is very good news for us

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:47 pm
by Stratton20
9 days out on the 00z CMC , probably gonna change on the next run, but any sort of system that shows up within 10 days on a model is at least something of interest

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:38 am
by Cpv17
There’s a massive difference between the Euro ensemble and the GFS ensemble in the medium to long range. Models are definitely confused right now.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:23 am
by Stratton20
CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that