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Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:36 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from usπŸ˜†

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:29 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 8:36 pm Cpv17 it definitely could be worse, just as long as that pesky SE Ridge stays away from usπŸ˜†
There is a SE Ridge on the 12z GFS in the medium/long range, but that feature gets defeated by -EPO Trough & -AO Push.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:45 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep I saw that, interesting pattern ahead, showed some winter storms forming over Texas but thays super far out

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:22 pm
by Cpv17
I think the first few days or possibly even the first week of February might be near average temps or slightly above it but after that I’m seeing a potential major pattern change.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 7:30 pm
by Stratton20
CPV17 yep the GFS is showing signs of a big pattern change, looks like the PNA will stay negative for a while but it looks to trend back towards neutral around the 5th or 6th

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 8:47 pm
by Kingwood36
Lol I'm honestly sick of hearing about a pattern change...all talk and no action

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 9:01 pm
by Stratton20
Kingwood36 a pattern change is coming... we all said the samething last january and look what happened in february, most model guidance is bringing the PNA back towards neutral around the first week of february, that is very good news for us

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:47 pm
by Stratton20
9 days out on the 00z CMC , probably gonna change on the next run, but any sort of system that shows up within 10 days on a model is at least something of interest

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:38 am
by Cpv17
There’s a massive difference between the Euro ensemble and the GFS ensemble in the medium to long range. Models are definitely confused right now.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:23 am
by Stratton20
CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:41 am
by Iceresistance
6z GFS WOW! If it was not being 300+ Hours out.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:42 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:23 am CPV17 yeah, i think the MJO and some of the teleconnections may be the reasoning behind that
It's the MJO that is mostly out of action, it has really messed up the models.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:16 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:17 am
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:16 am Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run
Yeah and it has some support from the GEFS as well to back it up.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:20 am
by Stratton20
CPV17 yup! We got a interesting few weeks ahead of us, if the GFS is right, man could we be in for some big time cold snaps

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:11 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 9:16 am Iceresistance well the latest GFS is very cold throughout its whole run
The Euro is in action as well, but the 12z GFS only solidifies the cold that is coming in February.

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:12 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance yep we are going to be seeing some bug changes coming in the next 10 days or so, I love the cold so bring it on!!

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:14 am
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:12 am Iceresistance yep we are going to be seeing some bug changes coming in the next 10 days or so, I love the cold so bring it on!!
It seems like that the MJO is no longer needed for this one. (Unless it speeds back into Phases 8-2)

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:17 am
by Stratton20
Iceresistance maybe! THE GFS keeps persistent troughiness out to our west, bringing multiple storm systems over texas and oklahoma, this is a good setup for potential winter storms!

Re: Winter Long Range Discussion

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:57 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:17 am Iceresistance maybe! THE GFS keeps persistent troughiness out to our west, bringing multiple storm systems over texas and oklahoma, this is a good setup for potential winter storms!
The CMC just went INSANE with a POWERFUL winter storm next week!

Kansas has reported 2 feet of snow from Yesterday's Storm, they did not see that coming.