January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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83°F to 25°F.

A 58°F drop in less than 18 hours. That's a record IMBY over the 30 years we have lived in Texas. The wind and low dewpoint (15°F) combined for virtually no ice accumulation, at least with standing water.

40 mph gusts here.

Maybe the cold snap will kill the dang weeds that sprouted up (despite applying pre-emergence in the Fall) in our front yard and put to sleep the mosquitos! :lol:
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jasons2k
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I had not yet brought-in the lemon and lime trees from the patio. I think they may be zapped now.

The novelty has already worn off for me. I'm over it. Can't do anything outside now. I'm ready for the warm weather to be back. At least I got to enjoy the most awesome "winter" staycation ever though. I didn't post much because I was outside the whole time, enjoying nature!! Now I get to stare at a screen again. :lol:

Time to catch-up on Yellowstone.
Cromagnum
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Really? 8 months of summer wasn't enough for you?

My AC and my sweat glands sure appreciate the break from the heat.
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jasons2k
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:55 pm Really? 8 months of summer wasn't enough for you?

My AC and my sweat glands sure appreciate the break from the heat.
Last summer wasn’t bad at all. Hardly had to run the sprinklers. The fall was perhaps the most pleasant fall we’ve had since moving here in 2005. I spent as much of the holiday break outdoors as I could and loved it.

I saw a news article last week (can’t recall the source) talking about “summertime heat” down here in Texas. The author obviously hasn’t been here in August lol.

Enjoy the cool snap while it lasts. This winter looks to be short and sweet.
Stratton20
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Lol this winter is no where near over, we we still get some pretty big cold snaps between now and march
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:36 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:55 pm Really? 8 months of summer wasn't enough for you?

My AC and my sweat glands sure appreciate the break from the heat.
Last summer wasn’t bad at all. Hardly had to run the sprinklers. The fall was perhaps the most pleasant fall we’ve had since moving here in 2005. I spent as much of the holiday break outdoors as I could and loved it.

I saw a news article last week (can’t recall the source) talking about “summertime heat” down here in Texas. The author obviously hasn’t been here in August lol.

Enjoy the cool snap while it lasts. This winter looks to be short and sweet.
I'd rate Fall 2020 - Summer 2021 as the best 12 months of weather in 30 years in Texas.

Since then we've had periods of near 70°F dewpoints through the end of December. Walks/runs were uncomfortable. A/C was on College Station utilities charge an exorbitant rate and we can't opt to a co-op. I try to use October - April to get in shape for the summer. Not this year. At this point - I'll take stretches in the 60s - 70s as long as the DPs are in the 50s or less. The window is getting smaller.
Cromagnum
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Bottomed out at 32 based on my backyard thermometer in Manvel.
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djmike
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29 for a low in Beaumont. Originally forecasted 32. Looks like by next weekend we are back to near 80. Smh.
Mike
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Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:57 am 29 for a low in Beaumont. Originally forecasted 32. Looks like by next weekend we are back to near 80. Smh.
Yeah there’s a possibility of another brief cool down around Thursday/Friday of this week but after that it looks like we go back into another torch. Models can always change though but I’ll admit models are looking ugly right now.
Stratton20
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If we go back to the 80’s then this should officially be declared as one of the worst winters in recent memories
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don
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A Spring like pattern may be setting up over the next week.While temps look to be mild, as ridging builds overhead it may allow storm systems to get trapped under the ridge and become cut off from the main flow.Could be looking at a muggy(sea fog) and wet pattern for the first half of the month at least.And hopefully some needed rainfall. ;)
Stratton20
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I dont think a blow torch pattern is coming, after looking at the 12z GFS, their appears to be another front around next sunday/monday and that keeps temps in the upper 50’s to low 60’s with a stormy pattern for a few days at least
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Belmer
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All I'm seeing out of the models is a volatile Pacific west-to-east flow with a few disturbances riding along the Pacific jet giving us some opportunities for some rain over the next 2+ weeks. Definitely don't see the warmth this month like we saw in December, but with below normal snow pack across the lower 48, any arctic air intrusions will be heavily modified due to Pacific air entrainment and the lack of snow to our north. Should keep things relatively seasonable for the meantime. Maybe things will start looking more dormant around here... crazy to see so much green grass and weeds into January and still having to mow.

Happy New Year everyone!
Blake
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Stratton20
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I have a question and hope someone can probably explain this to me, It appears towards hour 288 and beyond the GFS is showing signs of a stratospheric warming event taking place that would dislodge a piece of the polar vortex southward, is this something that should be ignored this far out on a model run? I know these events can take a few weeks to happen in the atmopshere
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:03 pm I have a question and hope someone can probably explain this to me, It appears towards hour 288 and beyond the GFS is showing signs of a stratospheric warming event taking place that would dislodge a piece of the polar vortex southward, is this something that should be ignored this far out on a model run? I know these events can take a few weeks to happen in the atmopshere
I’d answer this but I’m not really very knowledgeable with sudden stratospheric warming events. All I know about it is that the atmosphere has a bunch of different layers with a bunch of different names and that if it happens it’s supposed to cause the AO to tank (I think) which would cause the polar vortex to break up into smaller pieces and possibly one of those pieces could head south closer towards us. And if it happens you probably won’t see it show up in the models till about 4-6 weeks later. Last year in February thats what supposedly caused our cold snap. That’s about all I know. That’s a question for some really smart person to answer which isn’t really me lol
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DoctorMu
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Yeah, the Arctic is not holding down the cold air less as it loses ice. Sign of more things to come.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/arcti ... rent-state
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Today was brilliant blue sky perfection. Not much wind. Plenty of sun. Highs in the 50s. Low dewpoint. No A/C on or sprinklers running. Bottle it up. MOAR. 8-)
Stratton20
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Cpv17 your good! Thats a pretty good explanation!
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jasons2k
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Well folks I had some very minor leaf burn on the tips of few shrubs, but other than that, I am happy to report the garden made it through the freeze virtually untouched. A welcome change after everything froze to the ground last year!!

2 more months of watching but the next few weeks don’t seem to bring any additional freezing threats. Hopefully this weekend’s system can bring us some rain. The plants and grass could use a drink.
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