January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Texashawk
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srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:45 pm TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.
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don
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From HGX afternoon discussion.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Showers from Wednesday`s front will continue to push offshore
Thursday morning. Gusty northerly winds behind the front will
usher in colder temperatures. Combined with cloudy skies, high
temperatures will only get into the 40s on Thursday. Moisture
seems to linger in the wake of the front. With a few shortwaves at
mid- level and upper level divergence from an approaching
shortwave trough over W Texas/New Mexico, precipitation chances
return across most of the area by Thursday night. Given the amount
of dry and colder air filtering behind the front and a well-
saturated boundary layer, the main question will be precipitation
type. Most forecast soundings suggest a fully saturated profile in
the mid-level dendritic zone, but a warm nose between 900:850 mb,
suggests mixed precipitation across parts of the region.
Uncertainty remains high as any changeover to freezing
rain/snow/sleet will strongly depend on how fast the upper trough
moves eastward and how quickly sfc/road temperatures cool off
through the night. With that being said, areas south of Conroe may
see some mixed precipitation (slight chance for rain/freezing
rain/sleet), with better chances south of I-10. Still some
uncertainty between models, though, with low levels drying, out no
ice accumulation is expected. On the other hand, there is a
moderate to high confidence that it will be cold by Friday
morning. Breezy winds and cold temperatures will bring wind chills
in the 20s overnight.

By Friday morning, lingering coastal showers will bring some
rain/freezing rain.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1
Kingwood36
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"With that being said, areas south of Conroe may
see some mixed precipitation (slight chance for rain/freezing
rain/sleet), with better chances south of I-10"

Wow better chances south of I-10...wasn't expecting that
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Texashawk wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:51 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:45 pm TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.
A few years ago, MODOT pre-treated Bridges due to snow in SW Missouri, there was too much uncertainty in the forecast.
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Knowing my luck we probably wont get anything in college station lol
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srainhoutx
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Texashawk wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:51 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:45 pm TXDOT will be pre treating major roads and bridges in 10 Counties in the Corpus WFO Region.
Interesting. Who advises TXDoT? The regional WOs or the NWS at large? I just feel like this could really creep up on people, and after last February’s ice storms, a little transparency from all involved could go a long way, but I also get that they may be afraid people will panic over a low probability event, so… huh.
It's a coordinated decision from NWS, State, County and Local Emergency Management officials.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:59 pm Knowing my luck we probably wont get anything in college station lol
Your location says Katy, which is West of Houston, College Station is NW of Houston
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Iceresistance I need to update that lol Im a junior at A&m college station
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:10 pm Iceresistance I need to update that lol Im a junior at A&m college station
Makes total sense since you're at Texas A&M in College Station, TX
Kingwood36
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It's nice seeing the board so active!
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Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:15 pm It's nice seeing the board so active!
Yep, Many threw in the towel for this system a few days ago, now comes this!
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Jeff Linder just doesn't wanna bite

Strong cold front will move across the region Wednesday evening.

Slight chance of a mixture of precipitation Thursday night over portions of the area.

Today and tomorrow will be warm as southerly winds bring warmth and humidity back into the region ahead of a strong cold front on Wednesday evening. Enough moisture may be in place for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front Wednesday evening and a few could become strong or severe. This is a very marginal threat for severe weather as parameters are on the low side and will favor areas near the coast and around Galveston Bay and SE toward Chambers County.

Thursday:

Strong cold air advection will onset and expect temperatures to remain in the 30’s and low 40’s for the day. NAM guidance has been trending colder which is usual in these sort of cold air intrusions and would not be surprised if most areas remained in the 30’s all day. WSW/SW flow aloft will remain in place over top of the building surface cold dome and a short wave trough will approach Thursday afternoon and evening from the west. This trough will spread lift across the region and work with the remaining limited moisture to produce light precipitation. Strong northerly winds will be in place on Thursday resulting in wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s over the region.

Thursday night:

Warm layer (nose) noted in forecast sounding Thursday afternoon begins to erode over the area with profiles becoming more conducive for sleet or a mixture of sleet/rain/freezing rain mainly north of HWY 105. Moisture is still available in the evening hours, but between midnight and 600am on Friday the moisture begins to shift southward and drier air from the north works in. Surface freezing line will progress southward on Thursday evening and reach a line from roughly Huntsville to Hempstead to Columbus by late evening and possibly as far south as I-10 by Friday morning. Think the greatest potential for the moisture and cold air to overlap will be NW of a line from Livingston to Columbus where a transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will be possible. Toward I-10 including the northern portions of Harris County sleet could mix with the light rain on Thursday night and there may be a brief period where light rain/drizzle could briefly freeze if the 32 line can get into northern Harris County…think this is slightly more likely into Waller and Montgomery Counties.

Impacts:

Ground temperatures will be warm on Thursday and Thursday night given mid 70’s likely on Wednesday and only about 24 hours of cold air across these surfaces. Elevated surfaces (trees, powerlines, rooftops, bridges) may cool closer to the air temperature yielding some potential for light icing on these surfaces from any freezing rain or drizzle. Precipitation amounts look to be on the low side….maybe .05 to .20 of liquid with the higher amounts closer to the coast where temperatures will be above freezing. Overall not expecting any accumulations at this time, although an icy patch on a bridge or light ice on trees and power lines is possible especially north of HWY 105.

Confidence:

As with most winter weather events in SE TX, the confidence on where the surface freezing line will be along with what type of precipitation may fall is always low confidence until close to the event. Many of the parameters with this upcoming event are marginal with both the cold air and moisture. Will see how models guidance trends today and see what the shorter range guidance outputs as we move into that time period later today into Wednesday.
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Jeffs update came out before the latest 18z runs including the NAM, im sure hes going to be changing his mind soon
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Texaspirate11
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:26 pm Jeffs update came out before the latest 18z runs including the NAM, im sure hes going to be changing his mind soon
Because Jeff has no real experience right?
LOL.
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Stratton20
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Texaspirate11 im not saying he doesnt, i just said he might change his mind because he said lets wait and see what the latest mesoscale models show
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My confidence is definitely increasing. I’m still going to be on the conservative side for now since we do live in southeast TX but I’d go with about a 30% chance for now.
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:32 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:26 pm Jeffs update came out before the latest 18z runs including the NAM, im sure hes going to be changing his mind soon
Because Jeff has no real experience right?
LOL.
Since we live in southeast Texas I think pro mets are always going to be conservative till about 24-36 hours prior to an event. If models are indicating an event within that timeframe then they will slowly begin to bite. That’s just something I’ve noticed with each winter weather event we’ve had here.
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Texaspirate11
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I've worked with enough pros in disasters to listen to the pros, and of course we here know that anything can turn on a dime.
I'm just sayin - he's laid out a scenario that will happen and of course mother nature will have her way. We just need to always be prepared.
Models flip and flop.
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Iceresistance
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:42 pm I've worked with enough pros in disasters to listen to the pros, and of course we here know that anything can turn on a dime.
I'm just sayin - he's laid out a scenario that will happen and of course mother nature will have her way. We just need to always be prepared.
If I were in this scenario, I would say: "There is a chance that this may happen, but I'm not confident on it due to high Uncertainty. Things will change as it gets closer."
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