January 2022

[Texaspirate11]

I believe our NWS intimated that at one point....

[Iceresistance]

I believe our NWS intimated that at one point....

Yeah, even though that I'm in Oklahoma & would only get light snow, it's still worthy to watch since it could suddenly jump northward.

The GEFS is being mostly consistent with this system, & the SREF is literally going crazy with snow in Southern Texas, but the Operational models are having a tough time deciding on where the system will be. Which is causing the high uncertainty.

[Cpv17]

The trend is your friend…

I agree with this. It seems like there’s been a trend that with each passing model run being slightly more aggressive than the one before it.

[Texaspirate11]

Yup sure is and could and its winter and its hard to get a hold on it.
After last February's disaster (and yes I worked that too) I just say -
just prepare.

[don]

Jeffs update came out before the latest 18z runs including the NAM, im sure hes going to be changing his mind soon

Because Jeff has no real experience right?
LOL.

Since we live in southeast Texas I think pro mets are always going to be conservative till about 24-36 hours prior to an event. If models are indicating an event within that timeframe then they will slowly begin to bite. That’s just something I’ve noticed with each winter weather event we’ve had here.

Yep its always that way 9 times out of 10 when it comes to winter precip events down here which is understandable.Though David Paul is slowly starting to buy into it.We'll need to watch the mesoscale models tonight and tomorrow,and see if the trends continue.

[DoctorMu]

I would say the model is overdoing the amounts, but there is more support for more than cold rain with a sleet pellet. If I remember it overdid the amounts last February. Hard to remember though.

Record snow in CLL last Feb....but HOU saw mostly cold. The advection was super cold and dry. Not this time.

[DoctorMu]

If you want to see anything resembling snow, better try the Hill Country with this system.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
536 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

.AVIATION...
While VFR conditions prevail for the time being gusty south winds
have brought enough moisture back into South Central Texas that fog
and low stratus are likely overnight tonight. While DRT should remain
VFR through the forecast period, with a notable wind northwesterly
windshift Wednesday afternoon as the dryline moves through, the trio
of I-35 terminals will not be as lucky. MVFR ceilings should build in
between 08z-09z and will ceilings will quickly drop as fog also
develops. IFR ceilings and visibility are likely between 10z and
12z, with LIFR likely at all three I-35 terminals by 13z. Conditions
will slowly start to improve through the late morning and into the
early afternoon, but VFR may not prevail again at all TAF sites until
around 19z-20z. With the complexity of the AM TAFs did not include a
line in the 30 hour TAFs, but a front will move through between 01z
and 03z Wednesday evening resulting in a northerly wind shift.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
This morning saw a batch of mid-level clouds move across portions of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor with some virga and light sprinkle
activity. Since then, clouds have mostly mixed out and skies are now
mostly sunny. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s over the majority
of the region while moderate to breezy southerly winds continue for
locations along and east of the I-10/37 corridor. Wind gusts up to 30
mph have been observed.

Tonight will see temperatures well above average with most locations
only dropping into the 50s. A few spots in the coastal plains may not
get below 60 degrees. Winds diminish from this evening and into the
overnight. Given the humid conditions and the lessening winds, expect
development of low stratus and patchy to areas of fog late overnight
into Wednesday morning. The low clouds and fog should mix out by
Wednesday afternoon. As the dryline pushes eastward from the west and
compressional heating occurs ahead of the front, afternoon highs on
Wednesday climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. The strong cold front
arrives during the Hill Country and exits south of the area by around
midnight. The front could generate a band of showers and perhaps a
storm or two across the coastal plains before pushing activity toward
the south. Breezy northerly winds and much colder air filters south
behind the front. It will allow temperatures across the Hill Country
and along portions of the I-35 corridor to drop near or below the
freezing by sunrise Thursday. Attention then turns toward the upper
level disturbance arriving from the west and the wintry precipitation
potential, which will be covered in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
With cold air in place in the low levels behind the front, an upper
level trough will move across Texas. The upper trough will provide
lift to generate light precipitation. Model soundings show that
precipitation will be some mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and
snow. Precipitation will begin Thursday morning over the western half
of the CWA and spread eastward. Precip chances will be less than 50%
and any precip will be light. At this time we expect minimal impacts
from frozen precipitation. The most likely results will be icy spots
on elevated surfaces including bridges and overpasses. Temperatures
Thursday will be cold with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. The
precipitation shield will move southward through the evening and
overnight. Models today have shortened the period for precip and it
should all be over by Friday morning. Low temperatures Friday will be
below freezing over the entire area. Lows in the lower 20s are
likely over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau.
Temperatures will warm Friday, but will still be chilly in the upper
40s and lower 50s. Warming will continue Saturday. Another upper
level trough will move across Texas Saturday night and Sunday. This
will bring a slight chance for rain to the southern half of the CWA.
Another upper system will bring one more chance for rain Monday. This
system looks to be a bit stronger with better chances for rain to
more of the area. Temperatures Sunday and Monday will remain below
normal with lows in the upper 30s and highs in the 50s to near 60.
Tuesday will be warmer.

[DoctorMu]

The trend is your friend…

I agree with this. It seems like there’s been a trend that with each passing model run being slightly more aggressive than the one before it.

This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting.

[txsnowmaker]

The trend is your friend…

I agree with this. It seems like there’s been a trend that with each passing model run being slightly more aggressive than the one before it.

This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting.

I suppose that depends on your location. NWS had no mention of wintry precipitation for metro Houston until this afternoon. Now they have a 30% chance overnight Thursday.

[DoctorMu]

I agree with this. It seems like there’s been a trend that with each passing model run being slightly more aggressive than the one before it.

This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting.

I suppose that depends on your location. NWS had no mention of wintry precipitation for metro Houston until this afternoon. Now they have a 30% chance overnight Thursday.

Wintry mischief gone from our NOAA forecast for now, but added in Austin, San Antonio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg

[walsean1]

David Paul went from just a passing snowflake or sleet pellet North and West of Houston to see some sleet creep into Houston Thursday night/ Friday Morning. LOL

[txsnowmaker]

This run is more of a bust, but the 0z runs will be telling. After that we're nearly in Nowcasting.

I suppose that depends on your location. NWS had no mention of wintry precipitation for metro Houston until this afternoon. Now they have a 30% chance overnight Thursday.

Wintry mischief gone from our NOAA forecast for now, but added in Austin, San Antonio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg

Where are you located? Still in the forecast for SW Houston. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... edmDBZMHDs

[Kingwood36]

I suppose that depends on your location. NWS had no mention of wintry precipitation for metro Houston until this afternoon. Now they have a 30% chance overnight Thursday.

Wintry mischief gone from our NOAA forecast for now, but added in Austin, San Antonio, Kerrville, Fredericksburg

Where are you located? Still in the forecast for SW Houston. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... edmDBZMHDs

Still in mine as well

[Iceresistance]

NWS Corpus Christi has the entire area under a good chance of Wintry Mix

[Kingwood36]

NWS Corpus Christi has the entire area under a good chance of Wintry Mix

That has to come up the coast this way

[Iceresistance]

NWS Corpus Christi has the entire area under a good chance of Wintry Mix

That has to come up the coast this way

Special Weather Statement from NWS-Brownsville

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...

A strong arctic front will move through South Texas Wednesday
night with temperatures falling to around freezing by Thursday
night. The combination of these temperatures with abundant
moisture will result in rain mixing with snow, sleet and freezing
rain at times Thursday night and Friday morning. Light
accumulations of snow and ice will be possible away from the coast
before, temperatures warm to above freezing by mid to late Friday
morning. Wind chills as low as the upper teens are possible
Thursday night and Friday morning.

There still remains enough uncertainty in the duration and
intensity of wintry precipitation and freezing temperatures.
Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates.

[walsean1]

This is stupid that NWS Houston/Galveston are just Luke warm to in denial of the potential of wintry precipitation. They are South of us

[don]

0Z HRRR showing the start of the event . It wont go out far enough to see how the storm transpires until tomorrow.

[txsnowmaker]

Anyone care to explain how points south as far as Brownsville would see snow while Houston would be left with freezing rain/sleet?

[Kingwood36]

I've been bumped from 20%.... to 50% then 20%