January 2022

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Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:28 am

Models in the medium range are starting to pick up on a pattern change late next week, looks like the PNA goes slightly negative/near neutral as the cold air looks to be more centered in the western half of the country, definitely some interesting scenarios in the 12z models, could be a intriguing pattern developing, the 12z GEFS is trending towards much colder weather in the 8-10 day range

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tireman4
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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:03 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251746
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1146 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR ceilings are beginning to transition to MVFR. Drier air moving
in overnight will clear out most low level clouds and usher in VFR
conditions, starting in NE counties around 06-08Z. This drier air
will slowly push southwest during the early morning hours and
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR by 10-12Z for IAH, HOU, and
SGR. This drier air won`t make it towards the coast, so MVFR
ceilings will persist through the TAF period for southern and
coastal sites like GLS and LBX.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 444 AM CST Tue Jan 25 2022/...


.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Areas of fog should begin dissipating toward mid morning. That said,
anticipate cloudy skies to persist throughout the day across most of
the area with some moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion.
Possible exception might be across our sw zones near the Matagorda
Bay area who may see some peaks of sun and temps a few degrees
higher than those that don`t.

A reinforcing shot of dry air will backdoor into the region
overnight as a broad area surface high pressure sags sewd across the
Plains and Midwest toward the southern Great Lakes and Tennessee
Valley. This should bring clearing skies from ne to sw and possibly
allow for a light freeze across extreme ne parts of the CWA.

Another shortwave, currently situated across northern CO & UT should
track across the Red River Wed night. Other than drawing some cloud
cover back into the area from the sw/w, it should be moisture
starved so am not anticipating any precip with this feature. 47


.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

E/SE winds are expected to return Thurs with SE TX kind of between
systems in this somewhat progressive pattern of late. Temperatures
will remain just below normal with highs in the mid and upper 50s.

As the next (in a series of) mid/upper shortwave moves down/across
the Plains, it will help to drag the next cold front down into the
area Thurs night and early Fri morning. Did increase POPs a little
with this FROPA, mainly based on slightly better dynamics aloft as
progged moisture levels are still quite limited (PWs at/around 1").
But that being said, only going with a 20-30% range mainly over SW
and coastal areas through Fri morning. Cool/dry weather to prevail
through the weekend in the wake of the front with highs in the 50s
on Fri and slowly warming into the 60s by Sun. The return of freez-
ing/slightly below freezing low temperatures Fri night should also
slowly warm with lows in the 40s by Sun night.

There are indications from long-range global models that the first
part of next week could trend more active/wet as embedded disturb-
ances in the southern stream jet make their way across the region.
41


.MARINE...

Based on current trends, have kept the SCEC in place for the off-
shore waters through mid morning. Otherwise, with strong surface
high pressure pushing off into the SE CONUS, light to moderate N
and NE winds will prevail across our coastal waters the next day
or two. The next cold front is forecast to move into the coastal
waters late Thur night. Winds/seas will be increasing once again
starting on Fri with Small Craft Advisories/Caution Flags likely
heading into the weekend. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 38 54 38 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 30
Houston (IAH) 40 55 39 57 44 / 0 0 0 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 45 54 47 57 47 / 0 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:23 pm

This is 8 days out but FWIW the 12z Euro is showing a similar set up as the CMC is
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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:38 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:23 pm
This is 8 days out but FWIW the 12z Euro is showing a similar set up as the CMC is
Out of the next 10 days I see the Euro is only showing 2 days to be above normal (next Tuesday/Wednesday). The rest are near normal or below. It also gets really interesting towards the middle to end of next week.

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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:47 pm

Yep models are starting to look interesting late next week.Lets see if the trends continue...

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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 1:51 pm

Also something that caught my eye on the Euro run was the strength of the coastal Low it develops, 998 Mb is pretty dang strong

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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jan 25, 2022 3:17 pm

FXUS64 KHGX 252053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
253 PM CST Tue Jan 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Though the heaviest of the week`s weather may have occurred
yesterday, we`re still looking for the active pattern to continue
through the week. A weak front moves through the area this
afternoon and evening, reinforcing northeasterly winds and keeping
temperatures below seasonal averages, though rain chances will be
slim to none. Another front arrives Thursday night into Friday,
which will bring a chance of showers, mainly near the coast, and
continue to keep temperatures below average across the area.
Though we do expect temperatures to warm back to near and above
average by early next week, fair weather this weekend looks to
yield to some more chances of rain along with that warmer Gulf
air.


.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Mostly cloudy skies will persist through the remainder of this
afternoon and evening, but there are a few peaks of sunlight through
this stratus layer. Despite northeasterly winds advecting cold/dry
air, these breaks in cloud cover allowed temps to rise to the upper
50s this afternoon. As a dry back door cold front approaches from
the north during the overnight hours, skies will begin to clear out
from the northeast towards the southwest, but still remain mostly
cloudy towards the coast. Therefore, northeastern counties will cool
much more effectively tonight while southwestern counties will be
several degrees warmer. Temps tonight will be a little tricky since
much depends on cloud cover overnight and how quickly skies become
clear, but most areas west of I-45 and south of I-10 will remain in
the mid 40s while areas north of I-10 will be in the mid to upper
30s and our northeastern counties will cool to the low 30s.

Despite mostly clear skies tomorrow and increased solar heating,
continued cold air advection from a strong surface high centered
over Missouri and Illinois will inhibit warming, so daytime highs
are expected to be a few degrees colder and in the low to mid 50s.
Meanwhile, a mid level shortwave from the Rockies will push through
Central Texas and increase cloud cover tomorrow night for Southeast
Texas. This will also slow down radiational cooling overnight and
lows will reach the low 40s for areas around and south of I-10 and
the 30s for areas north of I-10 and the Houston Metro area.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

Thursday looks to see us getting squeezed between two different
features - first, we`ll see subtle coastal troughing down in South
Texas. This will mainly serve to ensure that winds here between
that trough and high pressure on the Atlantic Seaboard stay
northeasterly. However, some slight rain chances may try to creep
up the coast and into the lower Gulf waters in our forecast area
during the day.

Meanwhile, another in our series of upper troughs starts to dig
into Texas, helping to support a cold front attached ultimately to
a low way up in Canada. In normal cases, such a front probably
wouldn`t be worth mentioning or anywhere near here, but with it
getting linked up with this vort max working through Texas, it`ll
get a little extra oomph. Since we`re not looking for any onshore
flow ahead of this front, moisture available will be relatively
meager. In fact, the Euro is pretty much dry with this front, with
its passage merely marked by winds backing some and some modest
cold advection. The GFS - perhaps because it also includes
contributions from a real subtle shortwave coming out of Mexico
that briefly makes for some onshore flow at 850 mb, may be just
enough extra moisture and dynamical support to get some rain
showers. I`m not totally selling out to this idea, but it`s enough
for me to toss in some 30ish percent PoPs Thursday night and
early Friday morning, mainly coastward of I-10.

The frontal passage should also effectively wipe out any warming
we`ll see after tonight`s front, and keep high temperatures in
the 50s area-wide. Friday night looks chilly, with much of the
forecast area slipping just below freezing, in the 30-32 degree
range. The Houston urban core and the coast will still higher up
in the 30s, while the coldest spots on the northern edge of the
forecast area may slip into the upper 20s briefly around dawn.

Fair weather looks to be the story for the weekend, and while any
warming on Saturday looks to be rather modest, the return of
onshore flow Saturday night will usher in warmer, more humid Gulf
air for a decided warmup to above average temperatures early next
week. Of course, with more heat and humidity back in place, that
sets us up for better rain chances once the next upper trough in
this progressive train rolls through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR ceilings are beginning to transition to MVFR. Drier air moving
in overnight will clear out most low level clouds and usher in VFR
conditions, starting in NE counties around 06-08Z. This drier air
will slowly push southwest during the early morning hours and
ceilings will gradually lift to VFR by 10-12Z for IAH, HOU, and
SGR. This drier air won`t make it towards the coast, so MVFR
ceilings will persist through the TAF period for southern and
coastal sites like GLS and LBX.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to gusty northeasterly winds are in place this afternoon,
and will remain for the next day or so. If anything, they should
strengthen a little tonight following the passage of a weak, dry
front. This will require caution flags on all of the coastal
waters. Indeed, in the offshore zones from 20 to 60 NM out, we may
be on the edge of needing a small craft advisory.

On the other end, in the bays, winds of 15 to 20 knots should be
largely restricted to the lower portions of the bays, particularly
near the Texas City Wye and West Bay on Galveston Bay, and
towards Port O`Connor on Matagorda Bay. Farther up in the bays,
winds are generally not expected to be quite as strong. One
exception may be between Red Bluff and Eagle Point on the west
shore of Galveston Bay, as that area will see a favorable fetch
down Trinity Bay.

Tomorrow, winds will modestly weaken, and remain more moderate
until Thursday night. Around then, another cold front is forecast
to move into the coastal waters with increasing north winds and
building seas developing in its wake. This front will also bring a
chance of showers to the area Thursday night into Friday morning.
Small Craft Advisories and/or Caution flags will likely need to
return Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 37 53 38 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 39 53 39 57 42 / 0 0 0 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 45 52 47 57 46 / 10 0 0 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 10 PM CST this evening
through Wednesday morning for the following zones: Coastal
waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Wednesday morning
for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs

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Re: January 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:18 pm

January is going to end with a Bang! :D


Image

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:36 pm

djmike wrote:
Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:09 pm
Is this it for the rain today? Was expecting more and heavier. I have a bad habit of seeing 90% and thinking oh its going to rain a LOT. I have to keep reminding myself the percentage is COVERAGE. Lol
Lots of drizzle yesterday. A few showers.

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tireman4
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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 10:08 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 261055
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
455 AM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Drier llvl air continues to backdoor into the region from the
northeast. The persistent low cloudiness has generally lifted east
of a College Station- Houston line and should leave msunny skies
there today. Gradually scattering is anticipated further to the
southwest, but guidance indicates some cloudiness will persist
near the coast and offshore. Despite more sunshine today, CAA will
keep high temps 5-10 degrees below normal.

Shortwave over New Mexico will track ewd across OK and north TX
tonight. Other than drawing back some mid level cloud cover, this
feature should be a non-issue locally. Northeast parts of the CWA
may see a light freeze assuming cloud cover doesn`t return too early.

The next shortwave will dive sewd across the Rockies Thurs.
Associated surface cold front will make its way across the region
late Thurs night. Diffuse coastal troffiness across the mid & lower
TX coast, some Pacific moisture and mid/upper level disturbances
embedded in the mid-upper flow, and incoming cold front should allow
for some precip development across parts of the area. The further
west one goes from a College Station-Galveston line will see the
higher POPs going ito the late night hours Thurs...though nothing
much of significance impact-wise. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday through Wednesday]...

It does look like we`ll be on the backside of the next cold front
by Fri morning. Rain chances (along the front itself) are will be
ending from the north with the best chances likely over the coast-
al waters by mid/late Fri morning. Strong north winds should hold
over the region through most of the afternoon as skies clear from
the north. With surface high pressure expected to build down from
the Southern Plains quickly, decreasing winds and clear skies are
going to make for a rather cold night Fri night/early Sat morning.
Freezing and below freezing low temperatures are progged for much
of the CWA (low 30s/upper 20s)...save for the Houston metro/coast-
al locations (mid/upper 30s).

High pressure lingering over the area will help keep things quiet
and dry through this weekend. Temperatures will be slowly warming
with highs in the 60s and lows and in the upper 30s and 40s. With
the high eventually moving east of the region late Sun, returning
onshore winds (and moisture) appear to be setting the stage for a
return of widespread POPs next week. Long-range models seem to be
keeping with a fairly progressive mid/upper pattern for the West-
ern/Central CONUS as a series of well-defined troughs develop and
move down from the W/NW. 41

&&

.MARINE...

With strong/gusty N/NE winds in place this morning, will continue
to carry the Small Craft Advisories/Caution Flags until their ex-
pected expiration times. A SCEC may need to be extended into this
afternoon for the offshore waters.

Otherwise, wind speeds and seas should continue to slowly decrease
tonight and tomorrow as the pressure gradient weakens. We`re still
looking for the next cold front to move into the coastal waters by
late Thur night...with the NE flow and seas increasing once again.
Small Craft Advisories or Caution Flags are likely for most of the
day Fri. Conditions will be improving by Sat morning with general-
ly light/moderate NE winds prevailing the rest of the weekend. 41

&&

.Aviation...
VFR for most terminals with the exception of LBX and GLS at times.
Drier llvl air has arrived from CLL-HOU. However MVFR cigs are
forecast to hug the coast for much of the day. So, LBX & moreso GLS
may see a mix of SCT025-BKN025 at times. A weak disturbance will
track ewd across north TX & OK tonight bringing some mid-upper
ceilings albeit VFR. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 55 37 59 41 56 / 0 0 0 30 10
Houston (IAH) 56 37 59 43 56 / 0 0 0 30 20
Galveston (GLS) 55 46 57 46 57 / 0 0 0 40 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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