January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
869MB
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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:05 am

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
317 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022


TXZ195-197-210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437-312330-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.220131T1400Z-220201T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Burleson-Washington-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Wharton-Fort Bend-Inland
Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria-Coastal Jackson-Coastal
Matagorda-Coastal Brazoria-Matagorda Islands-Brazoria Islands-
Including the cities of Brookshire, Pearland, Caldwell, Bellville,
Bay City, Columbus, Hempstead, Wharton, Missouri City, Pecan Grove,
Palacios, Lake Jackson, Surfside Beach, Freeport, First Colony,
Clute, Eagle Lake, Mission Bend, Brenham, Waller, Sugar Land,
Prairie View, Sealy, Rosenberg, Edna, Alvin, Ganado, El Campo,
Angleton, Somerville, and Weimar
317 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM CST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas and southeast Texas,
including the following areas, in south central Texas, Coastal
Jackson and Inland Jackson. In southeast Texas, Austin, Brazoria
Islands, Burleson, Coastal Brazoria, Coastal Matagorda, Colorado,
Fort Bend, Inland Brazoria, Inland Matagorda, Matagorda Islands,
Waller, Washington and Wharton.

* WHEN...From 8 AM CST this morning through late this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy rainfall will begin this morning and
continue through late this evening. Rain totals in the Watch
area will be between two to four inches with localized
amounts of five to seven inches. Rainfall rates of up to two
inches per hour or higher will be possible with embedded
thunderstorms that develop this afternoon. The Flood Watch
may need to be expanded in further updates depending on
latest trends.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:09 am

Image

869MB
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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:11 am

WPC 24-HOUR DAY 1 QPF - 1.31.2022.gif

869MB
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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 5:57 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
437 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
The high pressure that has been giving us the dry conditions the last
few days is now out over the eastern Gulf. An upper level low swinging
through Texas will form a surface low pressure later this morning
over the south-central part of the state. This disturbance will
begin to trigger isolated to scattered showers west of the Brazos
River by daybreak, and this precipitation will expand in coverage
and intensity through the day. Moderate to heavy rainfall from
showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into Wharton County
up through Washington County by the mid morning. The rainfall will
expand eastward through the late morning with precipitation
reaching portions of Harris County by noon. The surface low pressure
will deepen through the afternoon causing the precipitation to
fill in across the western portion of the region. The disturbance
will not be in a rush to exit, so expect showers and thunderstorms
to persist through the day before exiting to the east by around
midnight tonight. Widespread totals of two to four inches will be
possible along and west of I-45, but localized higher amounts up
to around seven inches will be possible for areas west of the
Brazos River. The exact location of these locally higher amounts
will heavily depend on the development and track of the surface low
that develops later this morning. Rainfall rates of one to two inches
per hour or higher could occur with the isolated thunderstorms.
One hour FFG is around two to three inches with the three hour FFG
around four inches, so flash flooding may be possible where those
higher rain totals occur and essentially in areas of poor
drainage. A Flood Watch will go in effect from 8am until midnight
tonight for Burleson, Washington, Waller, Fort Bend, Brazoria,
Colorado, Wharton, Matagorda, and Jackson counties. The area of
the watch may need to be expanded further east through later
updates based on latest trends after the surface low has
developed. While Harris County/City of Houston is not in the FF
Watch currently, urban and small stream advisories may be needed
this afternoon as the low pressure slides into the region. If the
surface low ends up developing or moving a little further east
than currently expected, then the FF Watch may need to push into
Harris and Galveston counties. Remember to monitor the weather
through the day and have a way to receive warnings if issued. Do
not cross flooded roadways or passages. The WPC has placed areas
south and west of Huntsville in a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall today.

While flooding will be the main concern today, there is a chance for
isolated strong thunderstorms to develop bringing the threat of
strong gusty winds and small hail. SPC has placed areas south of I-
10 and west of I-45 in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms
today.

The bulk of the rain will have moved offshore and to the east by
midnight tonight with some lingering showers possible east of I-45.
Tuesday will be a day of reprieve from the active weather with
partly to mostly cloudy skies lingering. Temperatures this afternoon
will struggle to get out of the mid to upper 60s thanks to the rain
cooled air and cloud cover. A slight warm up is expected on Tuesday
with afternoon highs climbing to near 70. Overnight low temperatures
tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Very few changes were made to the ongoing extended forecast.
Wednesday starts out with some areas of fog. Warm, with temps
climbing into the 70s. Expect increasing chances of precip heading
thru the afternoon into the evening hours as moisture and large
scale lift begins increasing ahead of the Arctic front that'll be
making its way closer to the region.

A band of rain, and maybe a few embedded thunderstorms will be
moving into the area ahead of the boundary Wed evening and
overnight. Precip could be moderate at times with average
accumulations of 1-1.5" expected. Front and associated much colder
airmass should move into the College Station area ~9pm, Houston
~3am, coast ~5-8am. Anticipate some trailing post frontal precip.
Forecast soundings still show a stout warm nose between 900-700mb.
Would be very tough to see sleet/snow surviving that depth of
higher temps based upon what I'm seeing with the data that's
available at the moment. However, we'll still need to monitor
surface temps for the potential that any liquid precip freezes on
the ground upon contact. Based on fcst temp grids, locations
generally north of a Brenham to Crockett line would be the place
to watch after around 6am Thurs. That said, as temperatures
continue to fall...the column becomes increasingly less saturated
thru the mid morning into the afternoon hours - indicating
diminishing chances of precip. Overall fcst confidence remains on
the low side at this point. (Assume it'll probably begin to
improve going into Tuesday as we start seeing the the event fall
within the NAM & eventually the higher res model data windows.

Still seeing the expected model fluctuations in regards to post
frontal temps as well. Generally did a 50/50 blend of the past
fcst and the colder available solutions at the moment. Residents
can still expect several hours of freezing temperatures in the
evening thru early morning hours Thurs-Sat. Potential for hard
freezes (23F for 2+ hours) looks highest roughly north of a
Columbus-Cleavland line at this point. After the rain today, take
advantage of the warm wx to make any preparations needed (the 4
P's) before the cold wx arrives.

We'll remain in a sw flow aloft through the weekend and will
monitor for potential disturbances embedded in the flow passing
through. GFS, ECMWF & ICON show some light, insignificant, iso/sct
qpf blips late Fri or early Sat with such features. Have some
silent 10%'ers in the grids for now. Otherwise, we should see a
slight warmup thru the weekend...still below normal and cool by
our standards...with lows edging upward toward the low-mid 30s
and highs in the 45-55 degree range. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be on the rise as a storm system makes its way
into the upper Texas coastal waters later this afternoon and
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are
expected as this occurs. Small craft advisories are in effect. On
Tuesday, a warmer airmass will be moving over the cool shelf waters
and provide a favorable set up for sea fog development through
Wednesday night. An Arctic cold front is forecast to push off the
coast between 4 and 8 am Thursday. Much colder conditions along
with strong north winds, possibly approaching gale force, can be
expected in its wake. Low water conditions are anticipated as well
Thursday into the weekend. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 62 54 70 54 70 / 100 80 10 0 60
Houston (IAH) 65 56 71 56 73 / 90 90 20 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 65 58 67 58 69 / 80 90 10 0 40

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tireman4
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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 3:14 pm

FXUS64 KHGX 311737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022

.AVIATION...
Areas of -RA with embedded SHRA/TSRA can be expected this afternoon
as surface low pressure heads toward the Matagorda Bay area and then
moves off the coast this evening. MVFR/IFR ceilings and/or visibilities
can be expected with the stronger activity. IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible
tonight through tomorrow morning while rains move off to the east. Expect
ceilings to be slow to lift during the day tomorrow.

Winds will be SE to E around 10 knots today (possibly a little stronger
and gusty closer to the coast as the low heads toward the waters), becoming
light (mainly N) tonight through tomorrow morning.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CST Mon Jan 31 2022/

AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Light scattered showers are beginning to spread across the
western half of the area with most of the region, and this
precipitation will continue to expand and intensify through the
morning. SHRA with VCTS will occur for all terminal beginning in
the late morning and will continue through this evening. Moderate
to heavy rainfall will bring temporary periods of 2 to 4 mile
visibilities along with gusty winds. These conditions will be
possible at all terminals, but LBX, SGR, CLL, IAH, HOU, and GLS
will have the highest chances, especially in the afternoon and
evening hours. Precipitation will end tonight from 6z to 9z from
west to east. MVFR CIGS of around 1500 to 2500ft will develop by
the mid to late morning, then lower to below 1000ft this afternoon
and remain low through the night. Lingering low level moisture
will lead to patchy fog through Tuesday morning.

Fowler

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:01 pm

3.4 in of rain so far.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Jan 31, 2022 8:32 pm

This has to go down as one of the biggest busts that I can remember in quite some time at least for my area.

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djmike
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Re: January 2022

Post by djmike » Mon Jan 31, 2022 9:05 pm

Thats a wrap for January 2022. …On to Feb thread.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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