January 2022

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tireman4
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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:51 pm

FXUS64 KHGX 271737
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1137 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the entire TAF
period. Northeasterly winds persist through the daytime hours
today before becoming light and variable overnight ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front will push through all the
inland sites by 10Z-12Z with moderate northerly winds following in
its wake. For our southwestern and coastal sites (SGR, LBX, GLS),
there will be enough moisture in place to support rain showers so
VCSH has been added to the TAFs ahead of and lingering behind the
front. Some of the rain, if not all, will evaporate before
reaching the surface, so light rain at most is expected. Clouds
move out in the mid-morning/afternoon hours and northerly winds
become gusty with sustained winds around 12-15 knots with gusts up
to 20-23 knots. Surface high pressure will move overhead on
Friday night leading to lighter winds.

Batiste

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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:11 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281117
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
517 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Cold front is pushing through the area this morning ushering in
clearing skies and a breezy northerly wind in its wake. Some light
scattered showers are popping up around SGR, HOU, LBx, and GLS
this morning out ahead of the front. Nevertheless, VFR conditions
prevail through the period. Expect SKC conditions area wide by
the early afternoon that will continue through Saturday. Northerly
winds around 10 to 15kts with gusts to 25kts will be possible
through sunset, then gradual weakening winds through the night.
Light and variable winds are expected by Saturday morning.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 417 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...
A weak cold front is pushing through the region this morning, but
most of us won`t really notice as very dry air out ahead of the
front has limited precipitation. Some higher PWATs down around
Matagorda Bay will lead to an isolated shower or two through the mid
morning. Expect mostly cloudy skies through the morning with gradual
clearing from northwest to southeast giving way to mostly clear
skies for the entire area by the mid afternoon. CAA behind the front
will lead to daytime high temperatures today to be around 5 degrees
lower than yesterday with most of the area climbing into the mid to
upper 50s. There will be a 30kt 850mb LLJ over the area through the
afternoon, so expect some occasional gusts 20-25mph through around
sunset.

Mostly clear skies and lowering winds will lead to plenty of
radiational cooling tonight across the region with areas north of I-
10 dipping down to around freezing (and even a few degrees cooler
north of Huntsville). The City of Houston and coastal areas will dip
into the mid to upper 30s. High pressure will be overhead on
Saturday leading to a rather pleasant, albeit cool, day for SE Texas
with sunny skies and high temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
Saturday night will be a few degrees warmer than tonight as the high
pressure slides east ushering in a southerly flow for our region.
Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to low 40s for most of the
area.

Fowler


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Surface high pressure will be moving off to the east during the
day Sunday. Pressure gradient will tighten Sunday night and draw
Gulf moisture back into the region. A potent upper level storm
system, currently seen on wv imagery about 500 miles west of CA,
will be tracking across the area Monday and Monday evening and
bringing widespread showers and possible thunderstorms (specifics
on what/where instability looks like at the time is still a bit
uncertain). Think the 1-3" rain amounts already advertised look
reasonable...esp southwest of a College Station-Liberty line.
There are signals that some localized higher amounts might be
possible. (GFS has been pinging on the southern I-45 corridor/Galveston
Bay area for the last several runs - in the vicinity of where a
potential mirrored surface low might develop). Just something to
watch in the coming days...

This system pushes off to the east Monday night with fairly benign
wx then persisting into the day Wednesday.

Canadian high pressure surges south thru the central parts of the
country and pushes a strong cold front and associated precip
through Wednesday night. Cold, dry & windy conditions should
prevail in its wake Thurs. It`s beyond the scope of this forecast
package, but extended guidance indicates a reinforcing surge next
Fri-Sat. Most deterministic models show the potential for temps a
good 15-20 degrees below normal and the potential for several
freezes across portions of the area Thurs night into the weekend.
NBM is still chilly, but higher than deterministic solns at this
point. 47


.MARINE...
A cold front will be pushing off the coast early this morning.
Winds and seas will be on the rise. SCAs issued for all waters
with the exception of Galveston Bay which should be borderline.
We`ll go with the caution flags there and monitor trends to see
if we`ll need to upgrade. Gradually improving conditions are
anticipated tonight and favorable marine conditions are
forecast for the remainder of the weekend as high pressure moves
overhead then off to the east. Depending on wind speeds, there is
a slight chance of sea fog development Sunday night into Monday
morning as warmer air begins moving back over the cooler shelf
waters. A potent upper level storm system will track across the
waters Monday and Monday night bringing unsettled weather conditions.
Expect building seas and good chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Things should settle down Tue into the day Wed. A strong cold
front is forecast to push into the waters Wed night with potential
gales in its wake. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 56 31 65 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 57 35 62 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 56 43 57 50 64 / 20 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for the following zones: Galveston Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 12:57 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281724
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 28 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

As dry air continues to funnel in following the passage of this
morning`s cold front, skies have steadily cleared from north to
south through the mid-morning hours. 850mb (~5000 ft) winds are
around 30-35 knots and with steep low-level lapse rates some gusts
are mixing down to the surface. Northerly winds will continue to
remain sustained around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 18-23 knots
through sunset. With surface high pressure moving overhead
tonight, winds will become light and variable. The area of high
pressure will drift to the east on Saturday allowing for winds to
gradually transition to southwesterly by the mid-morning hours.
Skies will remain clear through Saturday.

Batiste

&&

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:43 pm

Next Thursday's set-up and potential for wintry mischief in NW parts of the Houston weather advisory area remains something to watch.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:56 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Fri Jan 28, 2022 4:43 pm
Next Thursday's set-up and potential for wintry mischief in NW parts of the Houston weather advisory area remains something to watch.
The 18z GFS has freezing rain down to the coast.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Jan 28, 2022 6:18 pm

Latest GFS is suggesting some areas could get up to 6” of rain Monday.

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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:12 pm

If you look at the radar loop, this blip is moving south. Thought it was a transitory thing but it’s been tracking on the whole loop…so it’s something. Wonder what it is….
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Re: January 2022

Post by TexasBreeze » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:16 pm

Looking at visible, there is a forest fire around that general area. Maybe a smoke plume.

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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:46 pm

Maybe, but it’s not stationary. It’s moving.
Anyway, time to trudge outside on a Friday evening to put the frost/freeze covers out. Joy. At least I have a couple of glasses of wine in me to keep me warm.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Andrew » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:22 am

For Monday's storm models have the upper-level shortwave trough dipping further south and the coastal low developing further southeast across the GOM. As a result, a lot of the convection associated with a possible MCS may stay further south and west than initially anticipated. One more thing to keep an eye on.
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