January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Jan 29, 2022 10:41 am

Figures…

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:00 pm

Rain-snow line for Thursday's front and storms is about I-35 on GFS and CMC and drifting in the models slightly east-southeastward. Stay tuned!

11 inches of snow on GFS for Granbury. It's going to be in the 30s all day here in CLL thrusday.

It might as well snow because cold rain does suck anyway. C'mon down! :lol:
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:01 pm

DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:03 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:01 pm
DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station
Yep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right. 8-)

txsnowmaker
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Re: January 2022

Post by txsnowmaker » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:09 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:03 pm
Stratton20 wrote:
Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:01 pm
DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station
Yep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right. 8-)
You can have it. We don’t want that freezing rain/ice mess down in Houston.

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:12 pm

I'm not rolling the dice for ice, my friend! The 4 letter word: SNOW

Trend is your friend on UKMet:

Image

Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:28 pm

Trust me I dont want ice here either, my apartment is surrounded by concrete pathways and roads, that spells big time trouble for any ice accumulations, id practically be stuck in my apartment lol

Cpv17
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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:02 pm

Bad trends for Monday. Was really wanting some good rain and storms. Looks to be more towards Victoria now.

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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:07 pm

Models actually trended more east today with Mondays system than yesterday when they trended west.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...

21Z Update...

A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.

Chiari
Attachments
Screenshot 2022-01-29 at 14-48-36 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
wpc_excessive_rainfsall_day3.us_sc.png

Cpv17
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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:12 pm

don wrote:
Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:07 pm
Models actually trended more east today with Mondays system than yesterday when they trended west.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...

21Z Update...

A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.

Chiari
I saw the NAM and HRRR have it more focused towards Victoria.

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