January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:16 pm

The 18Z NAM does, but most of the models have the bulls eye further east. And the HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet to see how the MCS evolves, it stops when the MCS starts to come together.
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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Jan 29, 2022 6:55 pm

What a beautiful day!! Even better tomorrow. Enjoy this weekend - it’s about as good as it gets around here.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Andrew » Sat Jan 29, 2022 11:21 pm

GFS and other global models have shifted north with the surface low and more of Central SE Texas looks under the bullseye. GFS is showing a pretty good chunk of the region receiving a quick 2-3 inches. Obviously, we won't know the exact specifics until a couple of hours out but something to watch going into Monday.
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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sun Jan 30, 2022 11:34 am

Stay weather aware tomorrow.
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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:21 pm

From earlier this PM..

Mesoscale models are coming into play now. Houston Metro seems to be on the edge.
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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:48 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:21 pm
From earlier this PM..

Mesoscale models are coming into play now. Houston Metro seems to be on the edge.
The 0z HRRR just finished running and it has 5-10” across Wharton County.

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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sun Jan 30, 2022 8:57 pm

Looks like a MesoLow may develop tomorrow, i wonder if they will issue a flash flood watch if the HRRR continues to show those qpf amounts.

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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:08 am

FYI...The 06Z NAM 12km has shifted the more significant rainfall accumulations toward the Houston Metro area for Monday as compared to the 00Z run:

NAM-12km Total Accumulated Precipitation - Init 00z 1.31.2022.png
NAM-12km Total Accumulated Precipitation - Init 06z 1.31.2022.png

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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:13 am

screenshot-www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov-2022.01.31-03_49_39.png
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There will be the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall over
portions of Texas as a rather potent mid level trough taps an
increasingly moisture rich atmosphere as it approaches the Gulf of
Mexico. Maintained the Slight Risk area with only minor
adjustments based on the latest WPCQPF and the
deterministic/ensemble guidance. The numerical guidance has been
pretty steady in depicting isolated maximum values in the 3 to 5+
inch range with enough ingredients to support some local 1 to 2
inch per hour rates closer to the coastline. That region has the
best overlap between the precipitable water values at or above
1.25 inches...moisture flux in the 1000 to 850 mb layer peaking at
nearly 2 standardized anomalies greater than climatology during
the late afternoon and early evening and best low level jet.
Flash flood guidance is generally in excess of 2.5 inches per hour
and 4 inches per 3 hours. Some rainfall rates may be enough to
challenge the hourly flash flood guidance...with urbanized
urbanized areas being more vulnerable to problems of runoff and
flash flooding. The potential for excessive rainfall will
gradually decrease from west to east as the upper system makes its
way out over the Gulf of Mexico.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

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Re: January 2022

Post by 869MB » Mon Jan 31, 2022 4:29 am

As of 4 am, the 06Z NAM 3km is a little closer to reality in my opinion as compared to the 06Z NAM 12km as of this time with respect to what they're each depicting vs. the current radar reflectivity...

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_4.png
download (1).png

Btw, the 06Z NAM 3km keeps the highest rainfall accumulations totals centered slightly off to the west of the Houston metro area...

nam3km_apcpn_scus_11.png

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