January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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cperk wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:54 pm
don wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:02 pm Yep Models are being fairly consistent on a potent MCS moving through on Monday.Could be a heavy rain threat setting up.The storm on Wednesday looks to be a heavy rain and severe weather threat.Possibly followed by wintry precip.A lot will change,but next week is looking very active around here.
Wow i thought after seeing that graphic this board would perk up.
We need to get this inside 5 days and hope for even better trends and for the GFS to get onboard.
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tireman4
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I think February will be a topsy turvy month, like 2021. Again, this in uniformed opinion.
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tireman4
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XUS64 KHGX 262109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
309 PM CST Wed Jan 26 2022

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

An approaching shortwave over the Southern Rockies will continue
to push eastward across Northern Texas tonight, helping to
increase cloudiness for our area overnight. Temperatures will get
plenty of opportunity to cool before this cloud deck moves in and
traps heat, so overnight lows will cool down to the lower 30s
again for northeastern counties, mid 40s for the coast, and near
40 everywhere else.

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer with partly cloudy skies
and temps in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another leeside shortwave
coming off the Rockies on Thursday will push a cold front through
our region Late Thursday night. Some weak upper level forcing
will invigorate isolated to scattered showers across the area,
especially south of I-10 and west of I-45. Increased cloudiness
and moisture tomorrow night means temps will dip down into the
mid 40s for areas south of I-10 and in the lower 40s elsewhere.


&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

By Friday morning, the front should be through the area...or at
least, mostly slow. A frontal passage on the slower end of the
guidance envelope probably puts it right around the coast Friday
morning, so I do hold some low-end PoPs south of I-10 in the
morning for any lingering showers/drizzle, but we should see
largely fair weather and a clearing sky as the day presses on.

Of course, this sets us up for a relatively cool weekend with
Friday likely to be the coldest day as cold advection will be
strongest in the wake of the front. Friday night looks good and
chilly, with a light freeze for most everyone not on the immediate
coast or within the Houston heat island. At the far northern end
of our forecast area, we could definitely see the temp dip into
the upper 20s for a short bit right around dawn, but for most that
see a freeze, it looks like lows in the 30-32 degree range.

By Saturday, it appears that the deepest, coldest part of the low
pressure system will have pushed off to the east, but we`ll still
find ourselves in northwest flow to combat the full sun. I`ve got
temperatures a bit warmer on Saturday as we`re more than a month
past the solstice now, and full sun should at least help us out in
overcoming the cold start and any lingering cold air filtering in.

Sunday gives us the return of onshore flow as the surface high
drifts off to the east, and ridging aloft begins to stack over
Texas. This should put an end to any potential for freezing temps
overnight, and pump highs well into the 60s on Sunday, and the
return of 70-plus temps as early as Monday, but definitely by
Tuesday.

Of course, as our progressive pattern continues, don`t get used to
warm, sunny days. The next upper trough will push the
aforementioned ridging out of the way on Monday, so the fair and
warm weather Sunday may give way to warm and showery weather on
Monday. The model guidance has really come together on this
trough, so I`ve let the first bit of Likely PoPs sneak into the
forecast Monday at the coast and over the Gulf waters. This is
just a lead shortwave trough for a deeper upper low expected to
dig into Texas towards the middle of the week, so the rain chances
don`t really clear out Tuesday or Wednesday, and a front may push
its way into Southeast Texas as early as Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Northeast winds are relaxing slightly early this afternoon, and
will continue to diminish slowly through the night. Moderate to
occasionally gusty northeast winds persist until Thursday night.
Then, another cold front is forecast to move into the coastal
waters with increasing north winds and building seas developing in
its wake by early Friday. Small Craft Advisories and/or Caution
flags will likely be required Friday. Moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to prevail late Saturday night, and carry into
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 37 60 42 56 31 / 0 0 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 38 59 44 57 35 / 0 0 20 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 46 57 47 56 42 / 0 0 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs
Iceresistance
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Winter Storm Warning considered for SW Oklahoma, up to 6 inches of snow expected there now

Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are being picked up on radar.
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sambucol
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Pow Ponder was talking about this for next week this afternoon.
Iceresistance
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Snowing outside, 33°F & falling.
walsean1
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don wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:09 pm 12Z EURO Showing a winter storm after the arctic front Wednesday.
Since Oklahoma is going to see Snow, we may start seeing a cooling down of the atmosphere further south due to the snowpack to our north which may help contribute to a possibility of winter precipitation in SE Texas. That’s what seemed to Happen in 2021. We may see this happen the first or second week in February
Stratton20
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Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 pm Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members
Well it’s getting there. I’d say about half of those members are showing something. When about 3/4 of them are onboard then I’ll start to get really interested.
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don
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0Z ICON showing the beginning of the storm. And 0Z CMC
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:10 am 0Z ICON showing the beginning of the storm. And 0Z CMC
That’s actually some pretty heavy precip on the ICON. That’s interesting to see because a lot of the time systems don’t really get going till their east of Texas. So to see it juiced up over Texas like that catches my attention.
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 pm Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members
I will not by into model runs until a local authorities such as Jeff Linder or David Paul mentions possible winter precipitation which they are cautious because we are in a warm climate region where this sort or weather is hard to forecast. We need cold air in place first to cool the ground enough for it to matter. I wouldn’t mind a day off from work but let’s remember that the 2021 Winter Storm was devastating for a lot of people.
Stratton20
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walsean1 when you get a signal like that in the GEFS it is always something to watch regardless, plus David Paul did mention this last night
walsean1
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:10 am walsean1 when you get a signal like that in the GEFS it is always something to watch regardless, plus David Paul did mention this last night
I heard Chita Johnson faintly mention next WednesdayThursday storm to see if the freeze line would reach further south. Is the GEFS trusted within weather circles? Only one I hear mentioned are GFS, European, and American models. Also would the storm system need to dig further south as off shore Gulf of Mexico 100miles or so?
Stratton20
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walsean1 well the GEFS is the GFS just run 20 different times, so technically it is the same model but with 20 members, as for the storm setup i think a pro met might be able to answer that better than me, im still learning just like you🙂
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tireman4
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Meanwhile, today......000
FXUS64 KHGX 271026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

A mix of mid-upper cloud cover is expected today with daytime
highs in the 58-63 degree range. Shortwave currently making its
way down the Rockies will phase with a digging trough across the
eastern 1/3 of the country. Associated cold front will be pushing
across the area late tonight. Some scattered showers will be
possible across southwest/south parts of the CWA a stream of
Pacific moisture & weak disturbances embedded in the upper flow
move through about the same time. Not much in the way of llvl
convergence/forcing with the front considering flow will already
be out of the ne/n. Looking at fcst soundings, the further north
and east of the Matagorda Bay area one goes a more distinct dry
subcloud layer exists. Suspect we`ll see quite a few radar returns
in the 9pm-9am time period, but also expect a decent amount being
in the form of virga so have tapered POPs back a touch. Clearing
skies from north-to-south can be expected during the day Friday.
Winds should taper off inland Friday night, and combined with
clear skies lead to a light freeze for most locations...exceptions
being inside the Beltway near the metro area and also at the
beaches. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

After a cold start, Sat should warm up as high pressure settles
over the region. Winds will become more light/variable and with
mostly clear skies, highs should top off in the lower 60s. Lows
Sat night will range from the mid/upper 30s for most locations,
except for the Houston metro and the coast (lower and mid 40s).
This dry/quiet pattern is expected to hold into Sun with a slow
warming trend continuing. Highs Sun will range from the mid and
upper 60s with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.

The changeover to a more active/wet pattern is still progged for
late Sun night/early Mon. The first in a series of strong closed
mid/upper lows moving in from the west should be near enough for
a decent spike of PWs across our western/southwestern CWA during
this same time frame (and low POPs). Rain chances are set to in-
crease abruptly for Mon as this seemingly robust system moves in
to and across S/SE TX (with perhaps a slight negative tilt) at a
rather steady clip. Some weak CAA possible in its wake Mon night
and Tues, but onshore winds should quickly return...all ahead of
the next system progged for Weds (or so). Current runs are hint-
ing that this next longwave trof could drag a rather strong cold
front down into the state for the latter part of next week. Stay
tuned as we still have a ways to go. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Seas over the offshore waters remain slightly elevated this morn-
ing, so will keep the SCEC in place through noon. Otherwise...the
rest of today is expected to remain fairly quiet with a generally
light/moderate N/NE flow prevailing. The next cold front is still
on track to move into the coastal waters overnight with winds in-
creasing to 15-25kts by sunrise. Small Craft Advisories are going
to be likely for most of Fri (especially across the Gulf waters).
Conditions are set to improve Fri night as high pressure moves in
the region. As the high shifts E/SE, a moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to prevail by late Sat night...and then carrying
on into early next week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable mid-upper ceilings today, but VFR regardless. Increasing
Pacific moisture and 5-7kft ceilings overnight. Scattered light
showers possible in advance of an incoming cold front in the 8-15z
time period with better chances/coverage south of I-10 and more
specifically west of Highway 288. Will probably throw in some VCSH`s
for terminals in the next set of TAFs south of IAH beginning around
9z, but overall precip amounts/impacts should be minimal. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 41 55 32 63 / 0 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 44 56 35 61 / 0 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 48 56 43 58 / 0 20 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Cpv17
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Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.
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Rip76
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:08 am Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.
This Monday?
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don
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Rip76 wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:57 am
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:08 am Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.
This Monday?
Yep, could be a heavy rain threat as a potent storm system comes through.
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Rip76
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Oh, 10-4.
Thank you, I've been traveling and not paying attention.
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