January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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CPV17 gotcha! The NAM is the only meso model showing this right now, not sure how good the NAM is with wintry precip though
txsnowmaker
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:23 pm CPV17 gotcha! The NAM is the only meso model showing this right now, not sure how good the NAM is with wintry precip though
Any time you get a short-term model, any model, showing snow in Houston it’s an eye-opener. Certainly something worth keeping an eye on.
Stratton20
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txsnowman interesting! Definitely didnt know that, I usually dont focus too much on the meso scale models
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sambucol
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 9:32 pm 00z Nam 12k , what do yall think? Its only 84 hours out
What’s the date for snow on that run? Thanks
Stratton20
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sambucol monday january 3rd! So definitely really close
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don
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HGX now calling for lows in the 20s for many locations.
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Kingwood36
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Euro coming along with next week's front
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Stratton20
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What a joke 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ another above normal map from NOAA
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:51 pm What a joke 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ another above normal map from NOAA
I really don’t put much stock into those forecast anymore.
Stratton20
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CPV17 I know, it seems like they arent taking into account what the GEFS and other ensembles are showing
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:12 pm CPV17 I know, it seems like they arent taking into account what the GEFS and other ensembles are showing
True, the GEPS and GEFS ensembles are selling some reinforcing cold on Thursday. 8-)

GFS has bought in on 18z.

Euro wants to place their bet as well.

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Stratton20
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DoctorMu loving this trend for a reinforcing shot of arctic air, nothing better than sitting outside with a nice fire going and thise cold temps!🙂🙂
Kingwood36
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Front is hauling *** lol
Cpv17
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Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:16 pm Front is hauling *** lol
These fronts are very heavy. A heck of a lot of momentum is barreling down south so that explains why these types of fronts usually come in earlier than forecasted.
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djmike
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What time is the frontal passage expected today?
Mike
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Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:00 am What time is the frontal passage expected today?
If I had to make a guess, I’d say it should be passing through Beaumont anytime between 11pm-2am.
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djmike
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Thank you CPv. I dont know why I thought it was a lot sooner in the day. Happy New Year!!
Mike
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:35 pm
Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:16 pm Front is hauling *** lol
These fronts are very heavy. A heck of a lot of momentum is barreling down south so that explains why these types of fronts usually come in earlier than forecasted.
53°F drop in CLL expected. lol
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DoctorMu
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^I may take that back because of instability across northern LA, MS, AL, TN. Tornado watch just posted in Alabama. Active tornado warning in TN. Could be a long day for that mid-South again along the front.
Cpv17
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It may end up being a little colder tomorrow than currently forecasted. Also, wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of wind chill readings in the teens.
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