January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:24 am

don wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:10 am
0Z ICON showing the beginning of the storm. And 0Z CMC
That’s actually some pretty heavy precip on the ICON. That’s interesting to see because a lot of the time systems don’t really get going till their east of Texas. So to see it juiced up over Texas like that catches my attention.

walsean1
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Re: January 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:17 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:31 pm
Pretty strong signal from the 00z GEFS members
I will not by into model runs until a local authorities such as Jeff Linder or David Paul mentions possible winter precipitation which they are cautious because we are in a warm climate region where this sort or weather is hard to forecast. We need cold air in place first to cool the ground enough for it to matter. I wouldn’t mind a day off from work but let’s remember that the 2021 Winter Storm was devastating for a lot of people.

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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:10 am

walsean1 when you get a signal like that in the GEFS it is always something to watch regardless, plus David Paul did mention this last night

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Re: January 2022

Post by walsean1 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:29 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:10 am
walsean1 when you get a signal like that in the GEFS it is always something to watch regardless, plus David Paul did mention this last night
I heard Chita Johnson faintly mention next WednesdayThursday storm to see if the freeze line would reach further south. Is the GEFS trusted within weather circles? Only one I hear mentioned are GFS, European, and American models. Also would the storm system need to dig further south as off shore Gulf of Mexico 100miles or so?

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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 7:38 am

walsean1 well the GEFS is the GFS just run 20 different times, so technically it is the same model but with 20 members, as for the storm setup i think a pro met might be able to answer that better than me, im still learning just like you🙂

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tireman4
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Re: January 2022

Post by tireman4 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:14 am

Meanwhile, today......000
FXUS64 KHGX 271026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
426 AM CST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

A mix of mid-upper cloud cover is expected today with daytime
highs in the 58-63 degree range. Shortwave currently making its
way down the Rockies will phase with a digging trough across the
eastern 1/3 of the country. Associated cold front will be pushing
across the area late tonight. Some scattered showers will be
possible across southwest/south parts of the CWA a stream of
Pacific moisture & weak disturbances embedded in the upper flow
move through about the same time. Not much in the way of llvl
convergence/forcing with the front considering flow will already
be out of the ne/n. Looking at fcst soundings, the further north
and east of the Matagorda Bay area one goes a more distinct dry
subcloud layer exists. Suspect we`ll see quite a few radar returns
in the 9pm-9am time period, but also expect a decent amount being
in the form of virga so have tapered POPs back a touch. Clearing
skies from north-to-south can be expected during the day Friday.
Winds should taper off inland Friday night, and combined with
clear skies lead to a light freeze for most locations...exceptions
being inside the Beltway near the metro area and also at the
beaches. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

After a cold start, Sat should warm up as high pressure settles
over the region. Winds will become more light/variable and with
mostly clear skies, highs should top off in the lower 60s. Lows
Sat night will range from the mid/upper 30s for most locations,
except for the Houston metro and the coast (lower and mid 40s).
This dry/quiet pattern is expected to hold into Sun with a slow
warming trend continuing. Highs Sun will range from the mid and
upper 60s with lows in the 40s and lower 50s.

The changeover to a more active/wet pattern is still progged for
late Sun night/early Mon. The first in a series of strong closed
mid/upper lows moving in from the west should be near enough for
a decent spike of PWs across our western/southwestern CWA during
this same time frame (and low POPs). Rain chances are set to in-
crease abruptly for Mon as this seemingly robust system moves in
to and across S/SE TX (with perhaps a slight negative tilt) at a
rather steady clip. Some weak CAA possible in its wake Mon night
and Tues, but onshore winds should quickly return...all ahead of
the next system progged for Weds (or so). Current runs are hint-
ing that this next longwave trof could drag a rather strong cold
front down into the state for the latter part of next week. Stay
tuned as we still have a ways to go. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Seas over the offshore waters remain slightly elevated this morn-
ing, so will keep the SCEC in place through noon. Otherwise...the
rest of today is expected to remain fairly quiet with a generally
light/moderate N/NE flow prevailing. The next cold front is still
on track to move into the coastal waters overnight with winds in-
creasing to 15-25kts by sunrise. Small Craft Advisories are going
to be likely for most of Fri (especially across the Gulf waters).
Conditions are set to improve Fri night as high pressure moves in
the region. As the high shifts E/SE, a moderate west to southwest
flow is expected to prevail by late Sat night...and then carrying
on into early next week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...

Variable mid-upper ceilings today, but VFR regardless. Increasing
Pacific moisture and 5-7kft ceilings overnight. Scattered light
showers possible in advance of an incoming cold front in the 8-15z
time period with better chances/coverage south of I-10 and more
specifically west of Highway 288. Will probably throw in some VCSH`s
for terminals in the next set of TAFs south of IAH beginning around
9z, but overall precip amounts/impacts should be minimal. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 60 41 55 32 63 / 0 10 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 61 44 56 35 61 / 0 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 48 56 43 58 / 0 20 20 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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Re: January 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:08 am

Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.

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Rip76
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Re: January 2022

Post by Rip76 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:57 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:08 am
Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.
This Monday?

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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:09 pm

Rip76 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:57 am
Cpv17 wrote:
Thu Jan 27, 2022 11:08 am
Monday is looking really intense on the GFS. Euro has it as well.
This Monday?
Yep, could be a heavy rain threat as a potent storm system comes through.
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Rip76
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Re: January 2022

Post by Rip76 » Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:10 pm

Oh, 10-4.
Thank you, I've been traveling and not paying attention.

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