January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:15 pm

Don FWIW the 12z Euro shows some wintry mischief in central texas on day 5, all liquid precip in SE Texas though
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Last edited by Stratton20 on Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:16 pm

walsean1 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm
The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.
Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas. ;)

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:30 pm

TexasBreeze wrote:
Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:44 am
There was a reason HGX didn't issue any watches or advisories. Nothing supported that and in places with wintery mix possible the chances were so low that it is a surprise nothing much happened except the small novelty in College Station.
It's not over 'til the Fat Lady melts. :lol:

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 22, 2022 2:33 pm

don wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:16 pm
walsean1 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm
The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.
Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas. ;)
Right. Something cold core out of the Rockies.

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jasons2k
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Re: January 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Jan 22, 2022 4:34 pm

Had a forecast low of 28. Actual low was 30, which is fine with me. The wind is a tad chilly for me but it's not too bad. The dogs liked it on their walk. Hoping for a nice soaking on Monday since I got robbed the last two systems.

Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:07 pm

18z GFS still develops a coastal low next week/ weekend, alao has trended slightly colder, 12z run had rain around but temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, 18z run has rain now in the low to mid 40’s, something to watch as its 5-7 days out
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Iceresistance
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Re: January 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Sat Jan 22, 2022 5:51 pm

Snowfall signal on GEFS is gone.

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DoctorMu
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Re: January 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Jan 22, 2022 6:49 pm

don wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:16 pm
walsean1 wrote:
Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm
The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.
Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas. ;)
Right. With enough energy, moisture, and cold air if Thursday's storm were stronger here we could have had a few inches of now and ice. If the precip is heavy it can cool the column and negate a warm nose. The precip. was just too light and most became verga, although we had some sleet, snow flurries, light rain.

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don
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Re: January 2022

Post by don » Sun Jan 23, 2022 10:54 am

HGX has an article up on the tornado outbreak earlier this month.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220108-to ... ng-houston

Stratton20
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Re: January 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:28 am

It appears the weather is about to get really boring after mondays storm system, I dont see anything of interest in the models in the near to long term, yawn😴😴, only thing I see is the dreaded SE Ridge showing up in the GFS

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