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don wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:48 am Like I said earlier we don't have a lot of data when it comes to disturbances coming out of Mexico. So there's always a chance that the disturbances will behave differently than what the models show. I found the snippet interesting from HGX this morning. Houston is almost 6 inches above normal for this time of year when it comes to rainfall.With more rain coming next week...

CLIMATE...

January`s rainfall total so far for the City of Houston stands at
8.29 inches which is 5.84 inches above normal. This makes this
period the second wettest Jan. 1-20th on record, with records
dating back to 1889 (First place is 9.23 inches in 1991).

The 8.29 inches currently stands as the 7th wettest January on
record. The wettest January on record is 13.11 inches in 1891.

On an average year, the City of Houston does not reach 8.29 inches
until March 14th.

Wasn't most of this the single day event on the 9/10th of the month? I certainly haven't had near 8 inches of rain this month in Cypress. Im pretty sure we are at around 2" for the year so far. There was a pretty big gradient on the storms from earlier this month.

Yes most of that fell during the mini tornado outbreak earlier this month.With such a large county/city theirs always going to be variation in rainfall amounts(Houston is not only one of the largest cities in the country by population but also by square miles). But if it falls at the official recording station (Bush) it counts for records regardless of distribution across the area.

8 days out but just something interesting that I saw in the 12z EPS members

The storm system late next week is one to watch.We need it to dig to the southwest more though if we want a winter storm,but something to keep an eye on.

Don seems like the models mostly keep it a rain maker, but I guess with the EPS showing “something” it bears watching

Will we have the cold tho? That's the 64 million dollar question

Of course nothing wintry is showing up yet but the overall setup is their.Hence why i mentioned the storm would need to dig more. The GFS and EURO both have the storm becoming negativity tilted over the southeast with the EURO showing frozen precip to the gulf coast of Alabama and the Florida panhandle. If the system is able to dig more to the southwest it could tap into colder air while over Texas.(Models are showing a strong cold core low setup with the 540mb thickness reaching the gulf). Just something to watch and see how things trend over the next week.

9 days out and I know before anyone says it doesnt look like much, but its showing something just like the EPS for late next weekend saturday-sunday timeframe

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 5:42 pm 9 days out and I know before anyone says it doesnt look like much, but its showing something just like the EPS for late next weekend saturday-sunday timeframe

You don't get shi* this time! You had your fun yesterday

Kingwood36 bahaha hey just move north of highway 105 jk

Forecast was for it to be colder tonight. Not seeing it. It's still 41 here.

Dropping fast here in Beaumont. Already 35. Radiational cooling in full swing. Our low is supposed to be 27 tonight and 29 Saturday night.

This is only 5-7 Days out on the 6z GEFS

Iceresistance Seems like most of the action this time will be confined to North Texas/ oklahoma, but still something interesting

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 10:06 am Iceresistance Seems like most of the action this time will be confined to North Texas/ oklahoma, but still something interesting

15/20 (75%) of the Members has snow for Oklahoma &/or Texas in the same general timeframe.

EPS has it too, even though it's a little later & it's around 50% of it's members.

Texas needs a good snowpack to its north. Too much moderation going on with these fronts.

FWIW the 12z GFS does develop a strong coastal Low by next friday, though we would need the temps to trend much colder cor any sort of wintry mischief to occur

Next week sure looks active.We could potentially see 3 storm systems back to back.Whether any of them will be able to tap into any arctic air is another story though.We'll see...

Any cold suppose to come down soon

The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.