Wx Infinity Forums

Don FWIW the 12z Euro shows some wintry mischief in central texas on day 5, all liquid precip in SE Texas though

walsean1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:44 am There was a reason HGX didn't issue any watches or advisories. Nothing supported that and in places with wintery mix possible the chances were so low that it is a surprise nothing much happened except the small novelty in College Station.

It's not over 'til the Fat Lady melts.

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:16 pm

walsean1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

Right. Something cold core out of the Rockies.

Had a forecast low of 28. Actual low was 30, which is fine with me. The wind is a tad chilly for me but it's not too bad. The dogs liked it on their walk. Hoping for a nice soaking on Monday since I got robbed the last two systems.

18z GFS still develops a coastal low next week/ weekend, alao has trended slightly colder, 12z run had rain around but temps in the upper 40’s to low 50’s, 18z run has rain now in the low to mid 40’s, something to watch as its 5-7 days out

Snowfall signal on GEFS is gone.

don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 1:16 pm

walsean1 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 22, 2022 12:50 pm The ingredients for a Winter Storm maybe less of what we had in 2021 would be Arctic air diving all the way down to Texas, but not with dry air, but moist air so that we would have a shot at winter precipitation. Otherwise look what happens with the last week forecast which didn’t pan out. We need to keep in mind that our part of the state is not properly prepared for what we saw in 2021.

Arctic air is going to be dry by nature.And the colder the air the drier it will be. To overcome that dryness you need a potent storm system to dig far enough south to tap into the moisture from the Pacific and or Gulf.The reason why we had a storm last year even with the dry arctic air in place is because the storm system dug south into Mexico. And then became negatively tilted over the area as it ejected across the state.Thus allowing it to tap into better moisture and also produce stronger lift over the state. If Thursdays system would have been stronger it would have been able to overcome the dry air better, and also would have been able to tap into colder arctic air from the north.A trough of low pressure or better yet a cut off low, that digs into north Mexico can be your best friend if you want a winter storm in Texas.

Right. With enough energy, moisture, and cold air if Thursday's storm were stronger here we could have had a few inches of now and ice. If the precip is heavy it can cool the column and negate a warm nose. The precip. was just too light and most became verga, although we had some sleet, snow flurries, light rain.

HGX has an article up on the tornado outbreak earlier this month.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220108-to ... ng-houston

It appears the weather is about to get really boring after mondays storm system, I dont see anything of interest in the models in the near to long term, yawn, only thing I see is the dreaded SE Ridge showing up in the GFS

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 23, 2022 11:28 am It appears the weather is about to get really boring after mondays storm system, I dont see anything of interest in the models in the near to long term, yawn, only thing I see is the dreaded SE Ridge showing up in the GFS

Spring is about come..I think our cold weather is going to the east

18z GFS got a little interesting about 6 days from now, forms a coastal low and brings in the 540 line a little further south with moisture around, shows a rain/snow mix towards the hill country

Friday looks to be a pretty cold day regardless of what happens.

It will be a chilly rainy Monday today. Watch for slick streets.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241017
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
417 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tomorrow/Tuesday Night]...

Activity starting to pick up from the west this morning as the mid/
upper level shortwave approaches. Down the coast, we`re also seeing
signs of the coastal low starting to form. And so it`s looking like
the forecast is coming together for the development/passage of wide-
spread rains across SE TX today. Current runs are keeping the track
of this coastal low just off the TX coast this afternoon before mov-
ing it east into the Gulf late tonight. This track along with progs
of the deeper moisture (PWs up to 1.8 inches) staying over the near
and offshore waters is keeping in line with the ongoing forecast of
heavier rains/possible thunder for the southern/coastal portions of
the CWA today. Rainfall totals for locations generally north of I-
10 should average around 0.5 inch through tonight, but areas closer
to the coast could see totals closer to 1 to 1.5 inches.

This activity will be moving out from west to east by late this aft-
ernoon/early evening...likely east of the CWA around midnight. This
does present a small window of favorable conditions for the develop-
ment of some patchy fog for our W/NW counties overnight (decreasing
clouds/light winds/wet grounds). Another surge of cool/dry air will
be on tap in the wake of this system tomorrow. Light to moderate NE
winds to prevail as surface high pressure builds down from MS River
Valley to the SE CONUS.

Highs today should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s depending on
the cloud/rain coverage...with lows tonight from lower 40s north to
the mid and upper 40s elsewhere. Even with the weak CAA, tomorrow`s
highs should be a bit warmer (upper 50s to mid 60s)...but lows will
be cooler (lower to mid 30s north and the upper 30s/lower 40s south
and coast). 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...

Decreasing cloud cover can be expected on Wednesday. It will be another
cool day with high temperatures ranging from around 50 far north to
the low to mid 50s elsewhere. A shortwave will be moving rapidly across
the area Wednesday night, but no rain is expected. Low temperatures
will range from the low to mid 30s north to the low to mid 40s south
and coast. The temperatures (similar to the highs and lows listed above)
hold pretty steady through the end of the week with another reinforcing
cold front racing through the area Thursday night. This front might
be able to generate some showers, especially near and to the south
of the Interstate 10 corridor. Strongish surface high pressure building
in behind this front will bring our temperatures down a bit with lows
on Friday night- Saturday morning ranging from the upper 20s to around
30 north to the upper 30s to lower 40s near the coast as skies clear
out and winds lighten up. The surface high moves off to the east Saturday
night and Sunday and allows for a more southerly flow to return to the
area resulting in slightly warmer temperatures on Sunday (lows in the
30s/40s and highs in the 60s). As we head into Sunday night and Monday
(and beyond), we`ll have to see how the evolution of next shortwave
occurs as there are some pretty significant timing/strength/location
differences showing up in the models. Stay tuned!

42

&&

.MARINE...

A coastal low pressure center is expected to develop near the Matagorda
Bay area today then track eastward off the coast this afternoon and
tonight. Throughout the day, winds will veer more southeasterly and
strengthen and seas will build. Expect increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms with some of the storms possibly becoming strong.
This storm system will move off to the east tonight and will be followed
by the passage of a cold front on Tuesday. After the front, expect several
days with moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds. Another cold
front is expected to move through the area Thursday night. Behind this
front, we will see increasing north winds and building seas as the
week comes to an end.

42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Will likely keep with the messy/wet forecast already in place with
this next package. May add the mention of TS for GLS but will wait
to see how things trend closer to TAF issuance time. Otherwise, we
should start to see activity end from west to east late this after-
noon/early evening for our western terminals, with the bulk of the
activity east of our sites at/around midnight. Patchy fog possible
for our NW counties overnight given progs of favorable conditions.
41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 53 44 60 37 52 / 90 40 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 46 61 39 53 / 90 60 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 61 52 61 44 54 / 100 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Is this it for the rain today? Was expecting more and heavier. I have a bad habit of seeing 90% and thinking oh its going to rain a LOT. I have to keep reminding myself the percentage is COVERAGE. Lol

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:09 pm Is this it for the rain today? Was expecting more and heavier. I have a bad habit of seeing 90% and thinking oh its going to rain a LOT. I have to keep reminding myself the percentage is COVERAGE. Lol

I was expecting more today too. This is pretty weak sauce. I thought the rain today would be a light to at times moderate rain lasting all day. There was a wave that moved through earlier this morning that lasted for maybe an hour or so but other than that nothing. Looks like another round coming from Victoria but that looks like even less of an event than the first one. After that passes it looks like that’s it.

This rain event was a complete bust

This will answer your questions...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Mon Jan 24 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

First round of SHRA pushing east with a brief break in rain
expected. However, coastal low currently near Matagorda Bay will
continue to push east and bring more RA and IFR ceilings across
Southeast Texas. This next round of rain will persist through most
of today and begin to clear out from western sites by 04Z and
eastern sites by 09Z. Some isolated VCTS is possible this
afternoon for coastal sites, otherwise no tstorms expected. IFR
ceilings will persist through the remainder of the TAF period with
some patchy fog building in during the overnight hours for areas
west of I-45.

Lenninger

Looking like a freeze for Friday night.