Re: January 2022
Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2022 10:41 am
Figures…
Yep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:01 pm DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station
You can have it. We don’t want that freezing rain/ice mess down in Houston.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:03 pmYep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 2:01 pm DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...
21Z Update...
A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.
Chiari
I saw the NAM and HRRR have it more focused towards Victoria.don wrote: ↑Sat Jan 29, 2022 3:07 pm Models actually trended more east today with Mondays system than yesterday when they trended west.
Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022
Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...
21Z Update...
A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.
Chiari