February 2022

[Kingwood36]

Corpus issued an advisory for their area. Our coastline w/o anything issued sticks out like a sore thumb now! I expect that to change seeing latest modeling...

It's ALWAYS like that...always the last ones to do anything

[don]

From HGX

[tireman4]

I think as more models come in, the conversation will take a more concerned tone. Stay tuned.

[Stormlover2020]

Anybody have weathernerd for icon 18z run

[sau27]

Icon looks about the same as 12Z

[Stratton20]

Yep models are locked in

[Kingwood36]

Why does Corpus have their coastal counties under a winter advisory but hou/gav doesn't? Doesn't make sense to me

[jasons2k]

Why does Corpus have their coastal counties under a winter advisory but hou/gav doesn't? Doesn't make sense to me

The cold shallow air is going to have a hard time progressing to the east. The 12Z GFS showed a low on Saturday Morning of 28 in Corpus and 35 at Bush & Hobby. Seems a little on the warm side around here to me though.

[Kingwood36]

Why does Corpus have their coastal counties under a winter advisory but hou/gav doesn't? Doesn't make sense to me

The cold shallow air is going to have a hard time progressing to the east. The 12Z GFS showed a low on Saturday Morning of 28 in Corpus and 35 at Bush & Hobby. Seems a little on the warm side around here to me though.

That doesn't make sense

[tireman4]

Why does Corpus have their coastal counties under a winter advisory but hou/gav doesn't? Doesn't make sense to me

The cold shallow air is going to have a hard time progressing to the east. The 12Z GFS showed a low on Saturday Morning of 28 in Corpus and 35 at Bush & Hobby. Seems a little on the warm side around here to me though.

That doesn't make sense

What he means is that is moving farther south and east....

[Kingwood36]

The cold shallow air is going to have a hard time progressing to the east. The 12Z GFS showed a low on Saturday Morning of 28 in Corpus and 35 at Bush & Hobby. Seems a little on the warm side around here to me though.

That doesn't make sense

What he means is that is moving farther south and east....

Ah ok, so we're basically not going to get anything here but rain but 20 miles up the road in Sugarland they are in the advisory lol crazy stuff I guess

[Cpv17]

Why does Corpus have their coastal counties under a winter advisory but hou/gav doesn't? Doesn't make sense to me

It doesn’t matter. Your area will probably be added later tonight or tomorrow morning.

[tireman4]

That doesn't make sense

What he means is that is moving farther south and east....

Ah ok, so we're basically not going to get anything here but rain but 20 miles up the road in Sugarland they are in the advisory lol crazy stuff I guess

I cannot speak for Jason, but I do not think he intimated that. I think he was puzzled by the temperature span. I suppose it could happen...

[biggerbyte]

Folks, don't get your hopes up. The models have been flopping around, and they will continue until event time. We seasoned veterans have been around this forum, myself 20 years, to know better. Most weather forecasting these days has come down to nowcasting. I've seen things change on a dime the night before, and even the day of. All we can do is prepare for the possibility, but understand how this works. If you start reading a popular word around here, bust, or comments like maybe next week because the models, well you get the picture. It is an endless cycle year after year, season after season.

[tireman4]

As much as I agree with you Bigger, I will say the models have been trending in the direction of some P-Type. I think being aware, knowing what to do (if it happens) and how to prepare would be the watchwords.

[Stratton20]

Biggerbyyte the models have not been flopping around, the past 2 days the models have been extremely consistent on this....

[Stormlover2020]

Hrr is the way to go and radar watching !!

[biggerbyte]

Guys and gals, this has happened many times before. Just be ready for anything. Even the greats, one example, Harold Taft, was subject to error even within a few hours. I lived in Dallas in the early 80s. He swore all of the winter precip. would be confined to far north Texas and Oklahoma. Got up the next day and had icicles longer than my arm, and several inches of snow. It happens in spite of everything.

[sau27]

18Z GFS already coming in a few degrees colder.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS a little colder and has upped its freezing rain totals some, this is very unlikely to be a bust lol