What he means is that is moving farther south and east....
Ah ok, so we're basically not going to get anything here but rain but 20 miles up the road in Sugarland they are in the advisory lol crazy stuff I guess
I cannot speak for Jason, but I do not think he intimated that. I think he was puzzled by the temperature span. I suppose it could happen...
I think you have a chance for ice and advisories for you may be coming later on. But if you look at the temperature and ice forecasts there is a gradient from north to south, and in SE Texas there is an even sharper gradient from east to west. It's complicated because there are two waves of precipitation involved. You may just see rain with wave one and then some ice or a wintry mix with the second disturbance.
The temperature forecast gets very complex. The area of highest pressure rises and the most direct CAA (Cold Air Advection) will have the coldest temperatures, sooner. Topography and downsloping is also a factor. The wind and wind trajectory complicates it even more.
In Texas, with shallow arctic air masses pushing against SW flow aloft, the leading edge of the cold air will tend to just ooze southward. During the day, it fights the sun. A lot of times the air will push further south, faster, rather than towards the east and southeast, because the topography to our northwest is higher and the cold air can ooze south, down the high plains, into the Edwards Plateau, and down the front of the Balcones fault with little effort. Further to the east, it gets more complicated. You can see some temperature variations downstream of the Ouichita mountains in NE Texas/SE OK today. There have been many cold snaps in the past where it was colder from Victoria down to Beeville than it was up in the Houston area.
There is also less variation in the wind. Low temps on Friday Morning are going to be more uniform with an advective freeze, and that's when you may have some wintry precipitation along the coast. In those situations it is generally colder to the north and west. When it's calm with radiational cooling, that's when the urban heat island and microclimates dominate. In these situations, it's usually colder at Lake Jackson/Angleton airport than it is at Bush, Tomball or Sugar Land -- further north. It just depends on the situation, where the cold air is coming from and form what angle, timing of the moisture, wind speed, cloud cover, etc.
Last weekend, it was colder on the island of Cuba than it was in the Florida Keys. Parts of South Florida were colder than North Florida. One could write a whole thesis just on the unusual observations in Florida's freeze event last weekend. It was something...
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:19 pm
Guys and gals, this has happened many times before. Just be ready for anything. Even the greats, one example, Harold Taft, was subject to error even within a few hours. I lived in Dallas in the early 80s. He swore all of the winter precip. would be confined to far north Texas and Oklahoma. Got up the next day and had icicles longer than my arm, and several inches of snow. It happens in spite of everything.
Harold Taft - "The World's Greatest Weatherman" was one of the great ones of all time. But he was notoriously conservative when it came to forecasting snow - and he was open and honest about it too. One of his many famous sayings was "In Texas, we don't forecast snow until we see it falling from the sky!" Miss that guy. Back in the day, He, David Finfrock, Scott Chesner, and Jimmy Darnell the photographer put on quite a show.
He also always used to say "Spring isn't here until you see the mesquite trees bloom"...
biggerbyte wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:19 pm
Guys and gals, this has happened many times before. Just be ready for anything. Even the greats, one example, Harold Taft, was subject to error even within a few hours. I lived in Dallas in the early 80s. He swore all of the winter precip. would be confined to far north Texas and Oklahoma. Got up the next day and had icicles longer than my arm, and several inches of snow. It happens in spite of everything.
Harold Taft - "The World's Greatest Weatherman" was one of the great ones of all time. But he was notoriously conservative when it came to forecasting snow - and he was open and honest about it too. One of his many famous sayings was "In Texas, we don't forecast snow until we see it falling from the sky!" Miss that guy. Back in the day, He, David Finfrock, Scott Chesner, and Jimmy Darnell the photographer put on quite a show.
He also always used to say "Spring isn't here until you see the mesquite trees bloom"...
don wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:34 am
Here we go..wasn't expecting that this early since HGX tends to be more conservative than some of the surrounding WFO.
Really annoying how the Houston NWS office seems to usually be a day behind the private mets. Been like that for years. (I've also noticed that for some reason they seem to never issue a Hazardous Weather Outlook in their region, unlike all the other surrounding offices.)
I need to quit wasting time going to their website for anything other than current or short term info.
I haven't noticed similar issues for the DFW or Austin/SA offices, at least not to the same extent. DFW has been pretty close to the private mets on this storm (though to be fair, that was probably an easier call for that area on this particular storm.)
This is accurate.
It limits time for people to prepare. Many work or have limited time and resources.
tireman4 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:22 pm
I think as more models come in, the conversation will take a more concerned tone. Stay tuned.
We're getting close to Nowcasting anyway.
I can't stay up all night Thursday night and nowcast cuz I have work in the a.m lol..unless we get ice then I'm not going in lol..so it's a catch 22 ya see the dilemma I'm in lol
The cold shallow air is going to have a hard time progressing to the east. The 12Z GFS showed a low on Saturday Morning of 28 in Corpus and 35 at Bush & Hobby. Seems a little on the warm side around here to me though.
That doesn't make sense
What he means is that is moving farther south and east....
That's not it. The Corpus Wx Office is seeing that second wave (ejected cutoff low) on Friday.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022
.SHORT TERM [through Friday Night]...
Winter weather will begin to impact the region late tonight into
late Thursday night as a strong cold front moves through the
region.
Tonight: Early this afternoon, a sfc low pressure was centered
near the Arklatex region, with the region positioned in the warm
zone. With deep moisture in the boundary layer and low-level
convergence, this has resulted in isolated showers across portions
of the region. The associated cold front, currently extending
over the Brazos Valley, will continue to move east-southeast into
the Houston metro area this evening and along the coast shortly
after midnight. Scattered showers with a few lightning strikes are
expected ahead and along its passage.
The main weather concern arrives behind the FROPA as the Arctic
High pressure builds in over the High Plains, pushing in strong
CAA and breezy to windy conditions into our region. Latest Hi-
Res/CAMS and deterministic models suggest precipitation continuing
on Thursday. In fact, the frontogenetic forcing is actually
impressive between 6AM - 2PM CST over our region, especially along
and west of a line from Wharton to Katy to Livingston. This
narrow band of frontogenic forcing at 850mb is coupled with weakly
stable to unstable EPV* aloft. At the same time, these models
show pockets of strong lift within the dendritic growth zone. In
other words, if it verifies, these features could provide enhanced
lift and locally higher amounts in locations within the band. In
terms of p-type, forecast soundings continue to suggest a warm
layer aloft for the most part of the day on Thursday, resulting in
rain with a changeover to freezing rain and sleet. Precipitation
chances will be decreasing from northwest to southeast Thursday
evening into early Friday. While colder air filters in, any
precipitation type should transition to ice pellets/sleet into the
evening hours.
Temperatures:
Very cold temperatures will be another concern. Thursday`s high
temperatures will only climb into the mid 30s to mid 40s inland,
and from the upper 40s to low 50s along the islands. Temperatures
will gradually plummet into the 20s to low 30s by Thursday night.
A similar trend in temperatures is possible Friday and Friday
night. Tight pressure gradient is expected behind the FROPA,
leading to breezy to windy conditions Thursday into Friday
morning. The combination of gusty north winds and cold
temperatures will lead to wind chill values from the teens to low
20s, with the coldest readings Thursday and Friday nights.
Accumulations and Headlines:
As of now, the main winter weather threat will be freezing rain
and sleet, with the highest chances over the Brazos Valley area. A
Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Brazos, Burleson, Houston,
and Madison counties from 6AM Thursday to 9AM Friday with ice
accumulations of an eighth of an inch possible. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect from 6AM Thursday for Washington, Grimes,
Colorado and Austin Counties with ice accumulations up to a tenth
of an inch possible. A secondary segment of Winter Weather
Advisory has been added to include Trinity, Walker, San Jacinto,
Montgomery, Waller, Inland Harris, Wharton, inland Jackson and
Fort Bend Counties, starting at 2PM Thursday. Ice accumulations up
to a tenth of an inch will be possible over these locations. It
is worth to mention that the greatest threat for icing across
Harris, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Wharton and Jackson should remain
over the western most portions of these counties. Wind Chill
Advisories and Hard Freeze Warnings will likely be issued for the
next forecast update.
05
.LONG TERM [Saturday through Wednesday]...
Little time was spend adjusting the forecast beyond Saturday with
greater focus on the short term system.
High pressure system will quickly builds in over Texas Friday into
the weekend, resulting in cool and dry conditions. Temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 40s on Saturday and into the mid 50s
on Sunday. With clear skies and good radiational cooling,
overnight lows are expected to dip into the low 20s for areas
north of I-10 and into the low 30s south, both Saturday and
Sunday. A gradual/slow warming trend is expected for the upcoming
week with temperatures climbing into the 60s by mid-week. Rain
chances look to return by midweek as a coastal low develops over
South Texas.
05
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Even with the fog starting to lift (and improved visibilities), we
will continue with this rather messy forecast for the rest of this
afternoon and tonight. While CIGS will slowly improve to VFR these
next few hours, the strong cap/deep moisture over the region could
bring the quick return of lower BKN/OVC decks and patchy fog (some
spots of dense fog) to the terminals by early this evening. All of
this will be ahead of the strong arctic cold front pushing into SE
TX tonight. Chances for SH/TSRA will begin this afternoon and will
continue well into tomorrow/Thur. Some of the stronger storms this
evening into the morning will be capable of producing strong gusts
and reduced VIS (due to the heavier downpours) as well as frequent
lightning. Expect strong/gusty N winds behind this front. There is
a chance of -FZRA and/or PL starting tomorrow morning for CLL/UTS,
and have included its mention in CLL for now. Rain chances will be
tapering off tomorrow evening, but clouds could linger. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Dense sea fog has lingered over the nearshore waters through the
afternoon, but we have seen improved visibilities over the bays.
Will be expecting the sea fog to move back into the bays shortly
after sunset (or even a bit sooner). Otherwise, we are still ex-
pecting a strong arctic cold front to push off the coast tonight
(which should bring an end to this fog). Scattered showers along
with isolated thunderstorms will prevail ahead of/with the front
itself. In the wake of this cold front, strong/gusty north winds
and elevated seas are forecast. A Gale Warning remains in effect
across Matagorda Bay and all our Gulf Waters starting early Thur
morning as sustained winds of 25-35kts with gusts up to 40-45kts
develop across the CWA. Presently, Galveston Bay remains under a
Small Craft Advisory as models keep the stronger winds to the SW
(and S) of the bay. However all marine interests should continue
to monitor the latest forecasts as it could be be upgraded to a
Gale Warning with later updates. These increased winds will lead
to seas climbing to 8 - 11ft with occasionally higher seas. Con-
ditions should begin to improve by Fri to Small Craft Advisories
and then to Caution levels late Sat/Sat night. 41
TX...Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday for
the following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Houston...Madison.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Fort Bend...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Montgomery...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Wharton.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones:
Austin...Colorado...Grimes...Washington.
GM...Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday for
the following zones: Galveston Bay.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05(JM)
LONG TERM...05 (JM)
AVIATION...41
MARINE...41
They're keeping an eye on the potential for enhanced banding.
In fact, the frontogenetic forcing is actually
impressive between 6AM - 2PM CST over our region, especially along
and west of a line from Wharton to Katy to Livingston. This
narrow band of frontogenic forcing at 850mb is coupled with weakly
stable to unstable EPV* aloft. At the same time, these models
show pockets of strong lift within the dendritic growth zone. In
other words, if it verifies, these features could provide enhanced
lift and locally higher amounts in locations within the band.
First, thank you so much for keeping us very well informed. You are appreciated.
Do we in 77377 Tomball need to drain pool pipes? Will we be below freezing long enough to worry about that? Thank you!!
jabcwb2 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:43 pm
First, thank you so much for keeping us very well informed. You are appreciated.
Do we in 77377 Tomball need to drain pool pipes? Will we be below freezing long enough to worry about that? Thank you!!
I’m not sure about that. Don’t have any experience dealing with pools but I’d expect low to mid 20’s possible for your area.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:08 pm
Biggerbyyte the models have not been flopping around, the past 2 days the models have been extremely consistent on this....
Yeah, the've been inching southward, but hardly flip-flopping...and getting the timing right... unraveling cut off lows and impulses
It's the physics of very cold, dense cold air riding down a fairly flat surface (Great Plains). Anyone with institutional knowledge of winter weather in the area should have known. It's been obvious. As the shallow cold air arrives early with overrun and impulses, freezing rain and sleet pellets are likely. Also the energy is there...
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
