February 2022
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Stratton20
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00z GFS has trended towards a winter storm setup somewhere in Texas next week, details remain uncertain, but definitely worth watching
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Channel 11 (David Paul) says 30%.
This comes to mind….
This comes to mind….
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Iceresistance
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All I can say for the 0z GEFS is RUN.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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Iceresistance that is colder than the operational run wow!
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
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6z GEFS also has a very similar map as well . . .Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:24 am Iceresistance that is colder than the operational run wow!
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Stratton20
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Iceresistance and its staying cold the entire run! Plus the 00z CMC is showing the formation of a winter storm next week!
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
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- Location: Tecumseh, OK
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Heard the Euro is now showing the storm for Next WeekStratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 17, 2022 8:39 am Iceresistance and its staying cold the entire run! Plus the 00z CMC is showing the formation of a winter storm next week!
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Kingwood36
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I like that gulf low the cmc is showing
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Stratton20
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- Location: College Station, Texas
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Kingwood36 yeah that would be good if we can get one to develop, at least in this run, the cold air could be in place
Is this a one day event, or more?
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 171126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Dreary conditions to start the day, with IFR and low MVFR
conditions across the area along with a mixture of light fog,
drizzle, and very light rain showers. Cold front sweeps through
later today, bringing an end to precipitation, CIGs, and switching
gusty southerlies to gusty northwesterlies. Gusty winds expected
to carry through the night, only beginning to diminish
around/after dawn on Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 408 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
Gusty south winds are fueling drizzle and light rain across
Southeast Texas early this morning, which will continue until a
dry line, and then a cold front cross the area later today. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the east can be expected
with their arrival into the middle of the day. Once the front has
passed, look for winds to stay strong and gusty, but flip around
to northerly, bringing in considerably colder and drier air.
This sets us up for a long stretch of fair weather through the
weekend and into next week. Friday and Saturday will be on the
chilly side, with lows falling into the 30s and highs in the 50s
and lower 60s. However, as southeast winds return by Saturday
night, we can expect a gradual increase in warmth and humidity
early next week. Above average temperatures will emerge, with some
highs reaching 80 degrees by Tuesday, and then we get to go
through the cycle all again with a midweek cold front.
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
A low impact, but still interesting look on the radar early this
morning. Over much of the area, we see the signature of some heavy
drizzle and very light showers, as moisture-laden air streams in
from the Gulf. Towards the northwestern edge of KHGX`s range (and
a little more obviously if you switch to KGRK or KFWS) are more
substantial showers and some thunderstorms from our long-
advertise, finally almost here cold front.
Before the front, we can expect a pre-frontal trough/dryline to
move into the area this morning. It appears from radar that this
feature is poised to move into the area from the northwest shortly.
This will begin to veer winds more westerly, and surge some drier
surface air into the western portions of the forecast area.
This...should...put an end to the drizzle/shower activity under
the cap out there, while it is more likely to continue as you head
east across the area.
This dryline should be quickly followed by the cold front itself
in the afternoon. As the front rolls through, we may get one more
gasp at showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and east of I-45.
The line of showers and storms out in Central Texas is not looking
healthy - perhaps not a surprise given the time of night. But
given the relatively poor lapse rates and inhibition, I don`t
really anticipate it`s going to get any better, even after the sun
comes up and starts to give us some modest heating. Should we
probably expect some lightning here and there way up in the
Houston-Trinity-Polk trio of counties? Yeah, that seems
reasonable. I`m not sure about anything southwest of there,
though.
What is more certain? Gusty north winds developing this afternoon
and tonight in the wake of the front. It`s marginal, but I decided
to go ahead and issue a wind advisory in the western part of the
area and along the coast, which tend to see the highest winds. We
do have a gale warning on the Gulf waters, and those tend to be
accompanied by advisory-level winds at least at the coast in
these situations. Did give a thought to including the entire
forecast area in the advisory, but I think I might be stretching
it a little in the inland west to begin with, and winds tend not
to crank up as much in the inland east. They`re not too far
behind, though, so a last minute addition may be needed today if
the north winds come in stronger than forecast.
With the north winds will come a surge of colder, drier air. Highs
today look to be in the 70s, even threatening to crack 80 degrees
on the coastal plain should the front be fashionably late. And
from there, we tumble. I`ve got a small part of the forecast area
falling to below freezing by Friday morning - this is on/north of
a line from Livingston to College Station to Caldwell. Further
south, I think we should stay above freezing, but temperatures
should still fall into the 30s unless you are right on the water.
Wind chills overnight should not fall to a point that needs any
sort of wind chill advisory, but apparent temps in the 20s aren`t
likely to be too comfortable.
The gusty north winds should diminish late tonight and through the
day Friday, but it will keep a regime of cold advection in place,
making Friday a chilly one indeed. The entire area should struggle
to see temps rise much through the day, with highs in the middle
to upper 50s forecast. With northerly boundary layer flow
continuing, Friday night is likely to be a chilly one as well. Low
temps look to be in the same ballpark as tonight, maybe just a
touch warmer as an upper trough axis swings through, and may give
us enough cloud cover to disrupt the efficiency of radiational
cooling.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Calm, cool, and drier conditions continue on Saturday as a surface
high moves nearly directly overhead. The resultant decrease in wind
speeds will significantly reduce post-frontal CAA, thereby paving
the way for a slightly warmer day with afternoon highs in the mid-
60s. During the overnight period and into the early hours of Sunday,
this surface high will gradually drift eastward towards the central
Gulf, allowing for a return of onshore winds. A developing lee
cyclone in Western KS/eastern CO will work to tighten the synoptic
pressure gradient, and as a result increased WAA/moisture transport
offshore will provide an increase in both temperatures and cloud
cover on Sunday that persists into the early part of next week.
Scattered showers will be possible area-wide on Sunday night as a
surface warm front pushes onshore, though rainfall will neither be
sustained nor intense. Daytime highs look to reach the upper 60s,
while increased cloud cover will greatly inhibit nocturnal cooling
and lead to overnight lows in the upper 50s/near 60.
Model consensus has improved regarding the synoptic pattern next
week, though there`s still some uncertainty to iron out regarding
the timing of precipitation and the arrival of our next surface cold
front. With a persistent southeast wind providing ample moisture to
SE TX (total PWs of 1.5+ in), a series of midlevel disturbances will
trigger showers and isolated storms on Monday and Tuesday as a
deepening surface low begins to drag a surface cold frontal boundary
into the Central Plains. More widespread precipitation is expected
as this boundary arrives in SE TX on Wednesday and potentially
stalls along the coast. However, timing differences are still
present among latest GFS/EC runs and so far have been somewhat
bearish with PoPs given the spread amongst deterministic solutions
in the past few days.
Temperatures will continue to warm heading into the upcoming week,
with highs on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front
reaching the 80s and overnight lows confined to the upper 50s/60s.
Greater uncertainty surrounds the temperature forecast for Wednesday
given differences in fropa timing, though with current GFS/EC
consensus highs should dip into the 60s/low 70s.
.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue to increase over the next several hours
ahead of the approach of a strong surface cold front this afternoon.
Elevated winds have thus far inhibited the development of sea fog
overnight, but should winds relax at any point some brief periods of
fog will be possible in the bays. Following the passage of the
frontal boundary and associated showers, strong north winds will
develop in its wake with Gale conditions expected in the nearshore
and offshore waters with Advisory conditions in the bays. Winds and
seas will begin to diminish on Friday as an area of surface high
pressure moves into the area. As the surface high slides to the east
by early Sunday, an onshore wind pattern will redevelop. A warm
front will approach the coastal waters late on Sunday, bringing with
it a chance of additional showers.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Weather conditions in regards to fire do not look to be
particularly favorable today, though not quite to any sort of
critical levels. Cold air now appears to lag a bit, giving us an
opportunity for warm, but still dry air to mingle with gusty winds
around mid-day and early this afternoon west of the Houston metro.
In the plus column, the strongest winds should hold off until the
colder air does start to surge in, and per TFS, it appears that
even 10 hour fuels are in decent enough shape to mitigate the
potential for explosive fuel growth.
Because of this, I`m holding off on any sort of red flag warning,
but still want to urge caution with fire and potential fire-
sparking activities. This is of particular emphasis in the rural,
grassy areas west of Houston. This is not only where that overlap
of drier air and winds will occur, but also the most fine fuels
will react the most quickly to lower RH, and become conducive to
fire growth more rapidly. Functionally, my wind advisory could be
seen as a "Not Quite a Red Flag Warning".
In the days to come, the continued push of dry air will keep
relative humidity low into the weekend. Fortunately, winds should
also be dying down, so again we should be able to avoid red flag
warnings. Still, the very dry conditions will probably require
continued caution, particularly in dense fuel beds where wind may
not be quite as important to fire spread.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 32 56 33 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 35 57 38 63 / 50 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 40 55 46 58 / 50 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island...Matagorda
Islands.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Madison...Waller...Washington.
High Rip Current Risk until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cady
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
FXUS64 KHGX 171126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
526 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022
.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Dreary conditions to start the day, with IFR and low MVFR
conditions across the area along with a mixture of light fog,
drizzle, and very light rain showers. Cold front sweeps through
later today, bringing an end to precipitation, CIGs, and switching
gusty southerlies to gusty northwesterlies. Gusty winds expected
to carry through the night, only beginning to diminish
around/after dawn on Friday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 408 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022/...
.DISCUSSION...
Gusty south winds are fueling drizzle and light rain across
Southeast Texas early this morning, which will continue until a
dry line, and then a cold front cross the area later today. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the east can be expected
with their arrival into the middle of the day. Once the front has
passed, look for winds to stay strong and gusty, but flip around
to northerly, bringing in considerably colder and drier air.
This sets us up for a long stretch of fair weather through the
weekend and into next week. Friday and Saturday will be on the
chilly side, with lows falling into the 30s and highs in the 50s
and lower 60s. However, as southeast winds return by Saturday
night, we can expect a gradual increase in warmth and humidity
early next week. Above average temperatures will emerge, with some
highs reaching 80 degrees by Tuesday, and then we get to go
through the cycle all again with a midweek cold front.
.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...
A low impact, but still interesting look on the radar early this
morning. Over much of the area, we see the signature of some heavy
drizzle and very light showers, as moisture-laden air streams in
from the Gulf. Towards the northwestern edge of KHGX`s range (and
a little more obviously if you switch to KGRK or KFWS) are more
substantial showers and some thunderstorms from our long-
advertise, finally almost here cold front.
Before the front, we can expect a pre-frontal trough/dryline to
move into the area this morning. It appears from radar that this
feature is poised to move into the area from the northwest shortly.
This will begin to veer winds more westerly, and surge some drier
surface air into the western portions of the forecast area.
This...should...put an end to the drizzle/shower activity under
the cap out there, while it is more likely to continue as you head
east across the area.
This dryline should be quickly followed by the cold front itself
in the afternoon. As the front rolls through, we may get one more
gasp at showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and east of I-45.
The line of showers and storms out in Central Texas is not looking
healthy - perhaps not a surprise given the time of night. But
given the relatively poor lapse rates and inhibition, I don`t
really anticipate it`s going to get any better, even after the sun
comes up and starts to give us some modest heating. Should we
probably expect some lightning here and there way up in the
Houston-Trinity-Polk trio of counties? Yeah, that seems
reasonable. I`m not sure about anything southwest of there,
though.
What is more certain? Gusty north winds developing this afternoon
and tonight in the wake of the front. It`s marginal, but I decided
to go ahead and issue a wind advisory in the western part of the
area and along the coast, which tend to see the highest winds. We
do have a gale warning on the Gulf waters, and those tend to be
accompanied by advisory-level winds at least at the coast in
these situations. Did give a thought to including the entire
forecast area in the advisory, but I think I might be stretching
it a little in the inland west to begin with, and winds tend not
to crank up as much in the inland east. They`re not too far
behind, though, so a last minute addition may be needed today if
the north winds come in stronger than forecast.
With the north winds will come a surge of colder, drier air. Highs
today look to be in the 70s, even threatening to crack 80 degrees
on the coastal plain should the front be fashionably late. And
from there, we tumble. I`ve got a small part of the forecast area
falling to below freezing by Friday morning - this is on/north of
a line from Livingston to College Station to Caldwell. Further
south, I think we should stay above freezing, but temperatures
should still fall into the 30s unless you are right on the water.
Wind chills overnight should not fall to a point that needs any
sort of wind chill advisory, but apparent temps in the 20s aren`t
likely to be too comfortable.
The gusty north winds should diminish late tonight and through the
day Friday, but it will keep a regime of cold advection in place,
making Friday a chilly one indeed. The entire area should struggle
to see temps rise much through the day, with highs in the middle
to upper 50s forecast. With northerly boundary layer flow
continuing, Friday night is likely to be a chilly one as well. Low
temps look to be in the same ballpark as tonight, maybe just a
touch warmer as an upper trough axis swings through, and may give
us enough cloud cover to disrupt the efficiency of radiational
cooling.
.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...
Calm, cool, and drier conditions continue on Saturday as a surface
high moves nearly directly overhead. The resultant decrease in wind
speeds will significantly reduce post-frontal CAA, thereby paving
the way for a slightly warmer day with afternoon highs in the mid-
60s. During the overnight period and into the early hours of Sunday,
this surface high will gradually drift eastward towards the central
Gulf, allowing for a return of onshore winds. A developing lee
cyclone in Western KS/eastern CO will work to tighten the synoptic
pressure gradient, and as a result increased WAA/moisture transport
offshore will provide an increase in both temperatures and cloud
cover on Sunday that persists into the early part of next week.
Scattered showers will be possible area-wide on Sunday night as a
surface warm front pushes onshore, though rainfall will neither be
sustained nor intense. Daytime highs look to reach the upper 60s,
while increased cloud cover will greatly inhibit nocturnal cooling
and lead to overnight lows in the upper 50s/near 60.
Model consensus has improved regarding the synoptic pattern next
week, though there`s still some uncertainty to iron out regarding
the timing of precipitation and the arrival of our next surface cold
front. With a persistent southeast wind providing ample moisture to
SE TX (total PWs of 1.5+ in), a series of midlevel disturbances will
trigger showers and isolated storms on Monday and Tuesday as a
deepening surface low begins to drag a surface cold frontal boundary
into the Central Plains. More widespread precipitation is expected
as this boundary arrives in SE TX on Wednesday and potentially
stalls along the coast. However, timing differences are still
present among latest GFS/EC runs and so far have been somewhat
bearish with PoPs given the spread amongst deterministic solutions
in the past few days.
Temperatures will continue to warm heading into the upcoming week,
with highs on Monday and Tuesday ahead of the approaching cold front
reaching the 80s and overnight lows confined to the upper 50s/60s.
Greater uncertainty surrounds the temperature forecast for Wednesday
given differences in fropa timing, though with current GFS/EC
consensus highs should dip into the 60s/low 70s.
.MARINE...
Onshore winds will continue to increase over the next several hours
ahead of the approach of a strong surface cold front this afternoon.
Elevated winds have thus far inhibited the development of sea fog
overnight, but should winds relax at any point some brief periods of
fog will be possible in the bays. Following the passage of the
frontal boundary and associated showers, strong north winds will
develop in its wake with Gale conditions expected in the nearshore
and offshore waters with Advisory conditions in the bays. Winds and
seas will begin to diminish on Friday as an area of surface high
pressure moves into the area. As the surface high slides to the east
by early Sunday, an onshore wind pattern will redevelop. A warm
front will approach the coastal waters late on Sunday, bringing with
it a chance of additional showers.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Weather conditions in regards to fire do not look to be
particularly favorable today, though not quite to any sort of
critical levels. Cold air now appears to lag a bit, giving us an
opportunity for warm, but still dry air to mingle with gusty winds
around mid-day and early this afternoon west of the Houston metro.
In the plus column, the strongest winds should hold off until the
colder air does start to surge in, and per TFS, it appears that
even 10 hour fuels are in decent enough shape to mitigate the
potential for explosive fuel growth.
Because of this, I`m holding off on any sort of red flag warning,
but still want to urge caution with fire and potential fire-
sparking activities. This is of particular emphasis in the rural,
grassy areas west of Houston. This is not only where that overlap
of drier air and winds will occur, but also the most fine fuels
will react the most quickly to lower RH, and become conducive to
fire growth more rapidly. Functionally, my wind advisory could be
seen as a "Not Quite a Red Flag Warning".
In the days to come, the continued push of dry air will keep
relative humidity low into the weekend. Fortunately, winds should
also be dying down, so again we should be able to avoid red flag
warnings. Still, the very dry conditions will probably require
continued caution, particularly in dense fuel beds where wind may
not be quite as important to fire spread.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 75 32 56 33 65 / 30 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 79 35 57 38 63 / 50 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 72 40 55 46 58 / 50 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island...Matagorda
Islands.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Madison...Waller...Washington.
High Rip Current Risk until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.
Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for the
following zones: Fort Bend...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Wharton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cady
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Cady
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cady
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs
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Iceresistance
- Posts: 577
- Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
- Location: Tecumseh, OK
- Contact:
FWIW the 12Z ICON looks similar to the CMC with a weak surface low developing in the gulf as the main upper trough passes to our north with cold air in place. It has a statewide ice storm including SE Texas with frozen precip almost to the coast Wednesday night/Thursday.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Man do we have an interesting week ahead of us
-
mcheer23
- Pro Met
- Posts: 535
- Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
- Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
- Contact:
12z GEFS
Looks like about 50-60(ish) percent of the individual ensemble members have frozen precip in SE TX
Looks like about 50-60(ish) percent of the individual ensemble members have frozen precip in SE TX
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Last edited by mcheer23 on Thu Feb 17, 2022 11:34 am, edited 2 times in total.
I like how the models keep trending more aggressive with each passing run. That’s definitely encouraging.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 19/30 (63%) of the GEFS members have a winter storm in our area, thats some really good support for something 7 days out