February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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We need to also watch model temp trends for the possibility of prolonged freezing drizzle Thursday/Friday.Not likely at this point but something to watch.
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Stratton20
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Don I feel like freezing drizzle is that precipitation type that is most overlooked by alot of people, even a drizzle can cause problems, definitely something worth monitoring
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:36 am Don I feel like freezing drizzle is that precipitation type that is most overlooked by alot of people, even a drizzle can cause problems, definitely something worth monitoring
Yep you can get higher ice accretion with drizzle than you can with heavy rain sometimes.Especially when temps are borderline right around the freezing mark.Freezing drizzle would make the roads a mess (February 2011).
https://www.weather.gov/crp/feb2011_icestorm
mcheer23
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Latest HRRR drags the front across 59 by 11pm...
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jabcwb2
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I tried to post a picture but couldn't figure it out. 🤔
Tomball shows lows at 43 and highs of 60 and 54 for Wed and Thursday of this week.
Am I understanding correctly that the Temps will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler?!?! Thanks!!!
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff:
Arctic cold front will move across Texas over the next 24-36 hours.

Arctic surface boundary currently extends from near Fort Worth back WSW into WC TX with temperatures of 66 at Fort Worth and 27 at Wichita Falls. Boundary is making good progress to the south well ahead of projected model guidance as is usual in these sort of setups. While the upper level flow is not favorable for a push of cold air to the south, the density of the cold air continues to move it southward against the unfavorable flow aloft. Will follow the fastest and coldest of the short range guidance with this boundary as the global models are too slow and warm.

Arctic front will continue southward today, but ahead of the boundary with breaks in the low level overcast, temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80’s over the region, this will create a large temperature contrast across the state with temperatures in the upper 90’s over deep south Texas and near 0 in the panhandle. Front will slow today and then continue slowly south this evening arriving into SE TX around sunset. Temperatures behind the front will quickly fall into the 40’s with gusty north winds. Front will likely reach the I-10/US 59 corridors by Wednesday morning and then slow again as best forcing and push of the cold air shifts off to the northeast. Main question is where does the front stall, based on current trends, think it will be closer to the coast, but probably not offshore and this will likely yield a strong temperature gradient across the area on Wednesday. For example areas in NW Harris County will likely be in the 40’s while areas near Galveston Bay in the mid to upper 70’s. Cold air mass will be extremely shallow (around 1,000-2,000 ft) deep with temperatures warming to near 60 just above the surface cold dome. Additionally, southerly winds above the surface cold dome will help to lift moisture and result in scattered areas of light rain, drizzle and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. Lots of potential for temperature forecast busts on Wednesday…upwards of 30-35 degrees in some areas depending on frontal location. I am leaning toward the faster and colder solutions which show the front making it south of I-10 and closer to the coast on Wednesday which would bring much of the area into the 40’s and 50’s.

Arctic front may lift back slightly to the north on Wednesday night before getting a secondary push on Thursday which will bring the boundary offshore by afternoon/evening and bring all of SE TX into the cold sector. Highs on Thursday will be cold and mainly in the 40’s although some areas to the north and west may remain in the 30’s. Areas of light rain, drizzle, and fog will continue as the warm upglide over the surface cold dome continues.

Cold air will remain locked in place into the weekend with several upper air disturbances to pass over the region resulting in periods of cloudy, showery, and foggy conditions. Overnight lows on both Friday and Saturday mornings may drop near or below freezing along and north of a line from Columbus to Huntsville and with precipitation possible a mix of rain/freezing rain will be possible in those areas. At this time any ice accumulation is expected to remain mainly to the NW of SE TX, but something to watch in the coming 24-36 hours. Overall temperatures will likely struggle to get much above 50 for highs through the weekend with clouds and lingering light rain/drizzle in place.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 221138
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
538 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.AVIATION...

Mainly MVFR ceilings are across the area early this morning along with
occasionally gusty mainly S winds. Expecting to see lifting ceilings
with skies becoming SCT as the day progresses, expect at the coast where
lingering low clouds are possible along with areas of sea fog. Whatever
scattering happening today will become BKN/OVC this evening and especially
overnight as a cold front moves into the area. Have winds shifting to
the NE behind the front for CLL this evening and similar scenarios down
to IAH before sunrise tomorrow. Uncertainty remains as to how far S
the front will get tomorrow. Look for periods of -RA/-SHRA with possible
embedded -TSRA. 42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST Tue Feb 22 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

Forecast remains tricky with the timing of the next cold front and
the associated temperature falls. First, anticipating another very
warm day across a majority of the area as enough cloud breaks with
persistently moderate/strong south winds dominate the area. There
is a chance that highs in the low to mid 80s with some spots maybe
getting into the upper 80s will occur (today`s record highs are 96
for CLL, 90 for IAH, 86 for HOU and 78 for GLS, & record high mins
are 68 for CLL, 70 for IAH, 68 for HOU and 66 for GLS). Anticipate
the front to move into the northern parts of our area tonight with
temperatures falling into the 40s. Further to the south, expecting
lows to be in the 60s. If the front moves slightly faster, some of
the areas we have in the 60s could drop into the 50s. If the front
is slower, spots with lows in the 50s could end up in the 60s. The
front is expected to continue to linger somewhere in the area with
colder temperatures behind the boundary and warmer temperatures in
front of it. The persistent southwest flow aloft will bring periods
of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm or two to the area as the
front lingers. We are also monitoring Wednesday night`s low temps
as there is some potential for far northern areas to maybe drop to
or get close to the freezing level and support some frozen precip-
itation. We`ll closely monitor area model/observation trends, but
for now will continue to only mention rain. Stay tuned! 42

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

By Thursday, a trough centered near the Four Corners Region will
sweep the lingering frontal boundary towards the coast by Thursday
evening. Although surface temperatures will reach the mid 30s
during the morning for our northeastern counties, they should stay
warm enough to keep frozen precip at bay when the front passes
through. Guidance is pushing the front through Southeast Texas a
little quicker, so daytime highs were lowered for Thursday and
should reach the upper 40s to low 50s north of the Houston-Metro
area and reach the low to mid 60s elsewhere. By Thursday night,
some weak forcing aloft will still kick up some scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms across the area as temperatures cool
down to the 40s south of I-10 and the 30s towards the north.
Thursday night we`ll need to closely monitor for the potential of
wintry mix as surface temperatures drop to near or just below
freezing for our northern counties. Forecast soundings still show
a large warm nose aloft, so the potential for winter precip
depends greatly on how deep and how cold the surface/near-surface
freezing layer is.

By Friday as the front continues to push offshore, some light
showers may still develop along the coast throughout the day. On
Saturday, an inverted trough combined with some quick moving
embedded mid-level shortwaves will help invigorate some scattered
showers on Saturday and Sunday until high pressure finally settles
in Sunday evening through early next week, suppressing convection.
Regarding temperatures, daytime highs will gradually climb from
the upper 40s to low 50s on Friday to near 60 by Monday.
Meanwhile, overnight lows are a little more finicky and depend on
cloud cover. Lows on Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s.
However, once high pressure moves in on Sunday and helps to clear
sky cover, cooling overnight is enhanced and lows will drop back
to the mid to upper 30s by Monday night.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Small craft advisories are in effect through the evening as southerly
winds still remain near 20 knots and offshore seas are above 7ft.
With this rich onshore flow, conditions still remain favorable for
patchy dense fog to form through Thursday morning until a cold
front pushes through. This strong onshore flow also increases the
risk for rip currents, so a rip current statement is in effect
through this evening. The previously mentioned cold front will
pass through our coastal waters by Thursday afternoon and bring
with it some scattered showers and storms. Strong northerly winds
will quickly fill in behind the front. Advisory flags will most
likely be needed behind the front with gusts increasing to near
Gale criteria.

Lenninger

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 49 49 35 47 / 20 10 60 40 50
Houston (IAH) 85 63 66 46 62 / 20 10 50 30 50
Galveston (GLS) 78 63 67 56 64 / 20 10 30 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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don
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No surprise, but looks like HGX is adjusting the forecast this afternoon... ;)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate MVFR cigs
beginning to scatter out over the past hour or so, a trend which
should continue into the afternoon at inland terminals. As a cold
frontal boundary approaches the area later today and into tonight,
metro and northern terminals will experience a northeast wind
shift before the front stalls closer to the coast. Despite this,
forecast soundings indicate ample low-level saturation and as a
result have maintained MVFR to IFR cigs during the overnight
period.
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tireman4
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don wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:41 pm No surprise, but looks like HGX is adjusting the forecast this afternoon... ;)
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1213 PM CST Tue Feb 22 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate MVFR cigs
beginning to scatter out over the past hour or so, a trend which
should continue into the afternoon at inland terminals. As a cold
frontal boundary approaches the area later today and into tonight,
metro and northern terminals will experience a northeast wind
shift before the front stalls closer to the coast. Despite this,
forecast soundings indicate ample low-level saturation and as a
result have maintained MVFR to IFR cigs during the overnight
period.
Yep.
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Good ole HGX...ALWAYS behind and always playing catch up
mcheer23
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18z HRRR keeps most of SE TX in the 30s and 40s tomorrow
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sambucol
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mcheer23 wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:09 pm 18z HRRR keeps most of SE TX in the 30s and 40s tomorrow
Will SETX have freezing temps?
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jasons2k
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This is gonna bust. This is fed on my Outlook banner brought to you by foreca.com.....
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Andrew
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Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
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jasons2k
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Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:07 pm Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
This is precisely why during tropical season we preach “don’t hug the models!!”

The same applies to winter storms as well.

Old-fashioned good forecasting and rules of thumb would prevent so much uncertainty in the “forecasts”….
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DoctorMu
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Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:07 pm Pretty amazing how far off the global models were with the stalling of this front. Instead of being in the upper 70s / low 80s tomorrow, most locations will be 30-40 degrees colder with temps in the 40-50s during the late morning and struggling to get any warmer than that during the afternoon. The globals still say return flow will occur briefly on Thursday before the reinforcing cold front pushes everything through, but some of the mesoscale models indicate that won't happen and we stay on the cold side of things through the rest of the week.
Folks. The front is already through CLL. Getting colder by the minute. Overperforming as expected...and I wouldn't not be surprised to see the front barrel to the coast well ahead of schedule.

The advection here has started.
Stratton20
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Doctormu Yep alreadt starting to feel the temps drop, will be interesting to see how far we drop tonight, then with the moisture moving in tommorow, could get interesting potentially
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DoctorMu
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The cold front is nearing Bellville - Hempstead - Magnolia now.
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Feb 22, 2022 5:29 pm Doctormu Yep alreadt starting to feel the temps drop, will be interesting to see how far we drop tonight, then with the moisture moving in tommorow, could get interesting potentially
High of 81°F

I'm calling a low of 38°F.

We could stay in the 30s all day tomorrow after sunrise.

The high for tomorrow will be at midnight - mid 40s.
Stratton20
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DoctorMu from 81 to being in the 30’s all day potentially, only in Texas!😆😆
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