February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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Re: February 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:24 pm

I had on thermals as my first layer. Still just couldn’t get warm.
I should have worn my snow boots instead of running shows though.

And yes if it were 10 degrees colder we’d be having one heck of an ice storm.

DoctorMU I’m glad you made it home safely and hopefully you’ll get that walk.

redneckweather
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Re: February 2022

Post by redneckweather » Sat Feb 26, 2022 5:48 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:24 pm
I had on thermals as my first layer. Still just couldn’t get warm.
I should have worn my snow boots instead of running shows though.

And yes if it were 10 degrees colder we’d be having one heck of an ice storm.

DoctorMU I’m glad you made it home safely and hopefully you’ll get that walk.
Yep, the cold and wind will cut right through running shoes. As soon as my feet get cold, the rest of me is done and doesn't matter what I have on.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm
And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.
Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.
Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm


The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.
Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.
Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.
It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.

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Re: February 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:03 am

jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm


Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.
Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.
It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.
I believe we’re about to go into a pretty bad drought. Severe weather will probably be from Arkansas to Illinois and points east and south of that line.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:44 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:03 am
jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm


Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.
It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.
I believe we’re about to go into a pretty bad drought. Severe weather will probably be from Arkansas to Illinois and points east and south of that line.
Agreed on that. That's what I was alluding to a week or two ago. I'm afraid we are going to quickly jump to a late Spring pattern of above normal temps with lack of rainfall and capping.

That said, based on what I see in the pattern evolution, I would not be surprised to see another last gasp of winter in a few weeks but it will quick.

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don
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Re: February 2022

Post by don » Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:50 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:03 am
jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm


Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.
It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.
I believe we’re about to go into a pretty bad drought. Severe weather will probably be from Arkansas to Illinois and points east and south of that line.
Over the last decade it seems like these frontal storm systems just don't cut it anymore down here.Ive noticed that the only way to break the cap consistently here and get widespread rain in the Spring is with a cutoff low.

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DoctorMu
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Re: February 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:53 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm


Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.
Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.
It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.
Good question. I agree. Late Fall and Winter over the past few years have had that uptick in severe weather up here as well.

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jasons2k
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Re: February 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:25 am

Had a low of 34. The sun is back!! Welcome to Spring!!

From pro-met Jeff Royed, AKA the Woodlands Weather Dude:
2/28/2022 Are We Done With Freezing Temperatures?
Lately, I have been getting questions on whether we are done with freezing temperatures in Montgomery County. In this post, I will explore that possibility from a numerical weather model probabilistic perspective and then also from a statistical perspective—based on the area’s weather history or climatology.

The easy answer to this question is an emphatic “no” as a good portion of the area may see temperatures fall near or slightly below freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Well that would make this a very short post if I didn’t pursue this further. The good news is that once we get past Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures here slowly climb and by Friday morning, we should see temperatures get close to normal early March levels. Queue the pine pollen!

By Friday, we should see the southeast winds hook up with the Gulf of Mexico and that means we will see rising humidity and warmer nighttime temperatures. In other words, time to plant your warm season garden—tomatoes, beans, cucumbers etc. But are we done with freezing weather for the season? Taking a look at over 100 different model simulations from the American, European and Canadian model suites over the next 15 days, they all seem to be sniffing out another cold front by the end of next week or around the 11th or 12th of March—give or take a day. Currently, I am only seeing less than 5% of the model simulations showing temperatures near or below freezing. In fact most of the simulations show low temperatures in the upper 40s. I like those odds!

Again, these ensemble model runs only go out to March 14th and to be honest with you, the forecast skill really starts falling off rapidly after around 11-12 days into the future. So there is some uncertainty and even the current forecast for late next week can trend colder here. So what about the second half of the month of March? Or even April? Unfortunately, the science is just not yet good enough to know for sure. However, we can look back at 25 years of history at Conroe’s Montgomery County Airport (image below). Based on our past history or climate, there is around a 30% chance of seeing a freeze in Montgomery County from March 15th or later. By the time we get to April, these odds fall to 12%. Our last freeze in April was just three years ago on April 2. Worth noting, historically, all of our freezes here after around March 11th have been very marginal or “light” freezes, which means we should probably be able to get by with some freeze protection.

So in summary, based on the present forecast, along with statistical probabilities, once we get past the next couple of days, odds would suggest that the area will be done with encountering freezes. However, climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. And as we found out over the past few days, we don’t always like what we get. -WWD

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djmike
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Re: February 2022

Post by djmike » Mon Feb 28, 2022 4:20 pm

Time to MARCH on to the new thread. Lets see what the new month has in store.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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