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February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:35 pm
by tireman4
Will we see a repeat of last year? Will it be frosty, warm or normal?

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:06 pm
by mcheer23
Hmm

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:17 pm
by Cpv17
mcheer23 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:06 pmHmm
That’s definitely interesting!

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 2:19 pm
by don
I like the 500mb trough orientation the models are showing next week.Could allow the arctic air to come straight down the plains.With energy digging to the west of us.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:02 pm
by Cpv17
This is a pretty good setup for next week. Not quite where it needs to be yet but there’s still a lot of time to work on that:

Image

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:19 pm
by Stratton20
Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:26 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:19 pm Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting
It needs to dig a little further south into Mexico and I’d like for there to be more ridging over Alaska.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 4:28 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 ah gotcha! But this definitely is a very good start

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:37 pm
by Iceresistance
The 18z GFS is just, YIKES! :shock:

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:45 pm
by Stratton20
Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:48 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:45 pm Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9
You can put the region to (South-Central USA) so you can get a better visual of Oklahoma & Texas!

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:52 pm
by Stratton20
After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 6:07 pm
by Iceresistance
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:52 pm After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members
Yeah, Member #12 has a foot of snow in Oklahoma & Texas from a single storm.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:05 pm
by Cpv17
Growing confidence for a pretty strong front to move through here towards the end of next week. Still don’t really like what I see from the models yet. Probably need a better snowpack up north. Too much modification.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:24 pm
by Kingwood36
Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:50 pm
by Cpv17
Kingwood36 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 7:24 pm Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here
Yeah especially when there’s not much of a snowpack over the central plain states.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:04 pm
by Stratton20
I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:50 pm
by Cpv17
Stratton20 wrote: Tue Jan 25, 2022 8:04 pm I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?
Yes but it makes it a lot harder.

Re: February 2022

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:27 pm
by Stratton20
00z CMC shows a potential winter storm setup about 8 days from now fwiw

Re: February 2022

Posted: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:02 am
by Cpv17
Well well well, the models have just gotten really interesting.