February 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 251050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 AM CST Fri Feb 25 2022

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tomorrow/Saturday Night]...

Not a lot of changes to the forecast for the next day or so as cold
temperatures, overcast skies and patchy areas of light rain/drizzle
persist across SE TX. Continued light to moderate CAA combined with
the overrunning clouds (via the southern stream jet) will help keep
high and low temperature spreads generally low through at least Sat
night. Highs today will be in the 40s with lows in the upper 30s to
mid 40s tonight. These numbers will be similar for both Sat but per-
haps a smidge "warmer" as the CAA weakens.

Disturbances embedded within this active southern stream jet should
keep isolated/widely scattered precipitation in place over the CWFA
today and tonight. Cannot rule out the possibility of brief periods
of freezing light rain/drizzle across our northern counties through
the rest of this morning as temperatures have fallen below freezing.
However, the slightly better rain chances are going to be along and
south of I-10. POPs are progged to increase once again tomorrow/Sat
as a weak coastal trough developing near the TX Coastal Bend pushes
towards the Upper TX coast. As such, look for widespread showers to
form and move in from the W/SW starting tomorrow morning then event-
ually spreading east through the afternoon. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday will be clearing out as surface high pressure settles into the
state and a west to northwest flow aloft begins to set up. This pattern
change looks to bring our area a quiet weather pattern for the upcoming
week. Sunday will have some rain chances mainly in the morning while
highs stay in the 50s. Breezy winds near the coast early will decrease
in the afternoon as the surface high builds on in. Clearing skies and
decreasing winds Sunday night will result in a cool/cold night with
lows near or a couple degrees below freezing up north, low to mid 30s
central and south and low to mid 40s at the coast. For much of the week,
the surface high remains the main player for the area and brings cool
nights and gradually warming days (highs in the 60s Monday, 60s/70s
Tuesday, 70s Wednesday thru Friday and lows in the 30s/40s Tuesday,
mainly 40s Wednesday, and 40s/50s Thursday and Friday). For now, will
keep this entire period dry as a majority of available models do not
bring any significant systems into the area. By Friday, high pressure
moves far enough off to the east that southeast winds return to the
area resulting in increasing moisture levels and humidities. 42

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to occasionally strong north to northeast winds and
elevated seas can be expected for the end of the week and on through
the weekend as low pressure develops off the lower Texas coast and
eventually moves off to the east. Decreasing northeast to east winds
and lower seas are anticipated for the first half of the upcoming
week as high pressure settles into the area.

42

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

We`ll start this next package with a mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS for much
of our terminals. Some improvement to VFR is possible for northern
sites by late this morning with the rest of the CWA likely holding
off until this afternoon. Will be keeping the mention of at least
VCSH in for most locations through early/mid afternoon. Cannot tot-
ally rule out patchy -FZRA/DZ for CLL these next couple hours, but
not confident enough to add at this time. Otherwise, elevated north
winds this morning will gradually relax as the day progresses. 41

&&

.CLIMATE...

Yesterday`s high temperature for College Station was only 36 degrees
and was only one degree off of equaling the record low maximum temperature
for February 24th of 35 degrees set in 2022 and in 1914. The 36 degrees
was 31 degrees below the normal high temperature for the date of 67
degrees. With only several days left in the month, College Station`s
average temperature of 50.6 degrees is 4.3 degrees below normal.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 42 39 45 38 57 / 20 40 70 60 20
Houston (IAH) 41 41 49 43 56 / 40 30 40 60 20
Galveston (GLS) 47 47 53 48 58 / 40 20 20 50 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Stratton20
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32 here with some more light freezing drizzle in my area, loving this weather! Really sucks that it warms up next week because I could do with thus kind of weather everyday!😆
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jasons2k
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I can’t wait for the warmup. I think last night was the coldest my body has ever been. I layered-up as best as I could and it was still miserable in that cold wind. By the time we got back to the car my feet and hands were numb. I lived in Lubbock on the high plains, frequented the New Mexico mountains in winter…and never felt that cold before. Every single one of us out there last night was so glad when it was over. We are all ready for baseball weather.
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:05 am 32 here with some more light freezing drizzle in my area, loving this weather! Really sucks that it warms up next week because I could do with thus kind of weather everyday!😆
Go stand outside in it for three hours nonstop in the dark and then tell me what you think. If you still like that you need to get your head checked 😆😆😆
Stratton20
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jasons2k im used to it thats why i love the cold haha, I lived in norway for a few years so ive just learned to get used to the cold , of course im not gonna be outside for hours in the cold, but ill take 32 over 95 degrees and sweating anyday😆😅
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jasons2k
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:19 am jasons2k im used to it thats why i love the cold haha, I lived in norway for a few years so ive just learned to get used to the cold , of course im not gonna be outside for hours in the cold, but ill take 32 over 95 degrees and sweating anyday😆😅
When you live somewhere like Norway, it’s just a part of daily life. Your body becomes acclimated to it. The infrastructure is built to deal with it. Wearing cold weather gear is a routine thing. Overall, it just becomes a non-issue when you live it day after day. Down here in Texas, not so much. Especially for this Florida transplant…
Stratton20
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Jasons2k well being from florida I definitely can see why you arent a huge fan of the cold haha
redneckweather
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Like I say every year. After hunting and the holidays, you can have the cold weather. I'm still liking the looks of the GFS as we get into March!
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:15 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:05 am 32 here with some more light freezing drizzle in my area, loving this weather! Really sucks that it warms up next week because I could do with thus kind of weather everyday!😆
Go stand outside in it for three hours nonstop in the dark and then tell me what you think. If you still like that you need to get your head checked 😆😆😆
30-40 degree weather can be miserable if you just sit there and don’t do anything but if you’re working I’d much rather prefer it than 90+ degrees with killer dp’s.
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:10 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:15 am
Stratton20 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:05 am 32 here with some more light freezing drizzle in my area, loving this weather! Really sucks that it warms up next week because I could do with thus kind of weather everyday!😆
Go stand outside in it for three hours nonstop in the dark and then tell me what you think. If you still like that you need to get your head checked 😆😆😆
30-40 degree weather can be miserable if you just sit there and don’t do anything but if you’re working I’d much rather prefer it than 90+ degrees with killer dp’s.
95 is about the cutoff for me now. Fortunately we won't have to deal with that for a few months!

As an aside - does anyone else have an issue on this site where the page keeps scrolling down?? That and that darn clock setting is about to drive me nuts.
Stratton20
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Jasons2k try logging out of the site and logging in again, thats odd
TexasBreeze
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:25 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:10 am
jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:15 am

Go stand outside in it for three hours nonstop in the dark and then tell me what you think. If you still like that you need to get your head checked 😆😆😆
30-40 degree weather can be miserable if you just sit there and don’t do anything but if you’re working I’d much rather prefer it than 90+ degrees with killer dp’s.
95 is about the cutoff for me now. Fortunately we won't have to deal with that for a few months!

As an aside - does anyone else have an issue on this site where the page keeps scrolling down?? That and that darn clock setting is about to drive me nuts.
Yes I have those same issues too. Been going on a long while now.
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jasons2k
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And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
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Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
I’m tired of looking at the models and seeing all the rain go north and east of us..time after time after time. Tennessee and Kentucky are constantly in the bullseye. We’re gonna need some dang rain around here.
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jasons2k
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I posted a first draft of this earlier but here is the full version I just posted on S2K:

So, I have to tell y'all...
I think last night was the coldest my body has ever been. We were at my youngest's baseball game, out in it for 3 hours. I layered-up as best as I could and it was still miserable in that cold wind. I had 5 layers on top and two layers on the bottom. I'm not kidding - I went prepared. But the cold, wet wind still cut right through like a knife. The fields are open and windy. I simply could not get warm or even comfortable. By the time we got back to my wife's vehicle with heated seats, my feet and hands were completely numb. And that was a strange feeling - they felt like bricks on the extremities.

I have lived in Lubbock on the high plains, frequented the New Mexico mountains in winter…and have never felt that cold before. I remember in Lubbock one time it was so cold my tires lost pressure and deflated and I had to change tires in the snow/cold, and I had pour anti-freeze radiator fluid in my car to get it started. This topped it all (although to be fair was out in the elements for a shorter time back then). Every single one of us out there last night was so glad when it was over. We are all ready for baseball weather. Thank goodness we have a warmup in the forecast and March is the beginning of the meteorological spring!!!
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:10 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
I’m tired of looking at the models and seeing all the rain go north and east of us..time after time after time. Tennessee and Kentucky are constantly in the bullseye. We’re gonna need some dang rain around here.
Yeah, I hope the cap is weak for you in March and April (but not so weak that twisters form). Today is a wet mess up in CLL. However, I'd rather save this rain for July and August when we are parched.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:33 pm I posted a first draft of this earlier but here is the full version I just posted on S2K:

So, I have to tell y'all...
I think last night was the coldest my body has ever been. We were at my youngest's baseball game, out in it for 3 hours. I layered-up as best as I could and it was still miserable in that cold wind. I had 5 layers on top and two layers on the bottom. I'm not kidding - I went prepared. But the cold, wet wind still cut right through like a knife. The fields are open and windy. I simply could not get warm or even comfortable. By the time we got back to my wife's vehicle with heated seats, my feet and hands were completely numb. And that was a strange feeling - they felt like bricks on the extremities.

I have lived in Lubbock on the high plains, frequented the New Mexico mountains in winter…and have never felt that cold before. I remember in Lubbock one time it was so cold my tires lost pressure and deflated and I had to change tires in the snow/cold, and I had pour anti-freeze radiator fluid in my car to get it started. This topped it all (although to be fair was out in the elements for a shorter time back then). Every single one of us out there last night was so glad when it was over. We are all ready for baseball weather. Thank goodness we have a warmup in the forecast and March is the beginning of the meteorological spring!!!
Thermals!!

That reminds me. I've lived in Illinois, VA, NC, etc. before SE Texas, but the coldest I've every been was without thermals at a night football game at LSU, believe it or not.

Fog

31°F

Wind about 20-25 mph steady. It was almost like swimming in frigid water. lol

We had thermals and layers and gloves outside Chicago. Not a problem.
Cpv17
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This weather the past few days has been awesome and exciting for me. I’m definitely gonna miss it and already can’t wait for next winter. Hoping we get a lot of rain and storms to track between now and then and hopefully at least a couple more fronts in March or April.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.
The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.
Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.
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