Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:10 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 9:15 am

Go stand outside in it for three hours nonstop in the dark and then tell me what you think. If you still like that you need to get your head checked

30-40 degree weather can be miserable if you just sit there and don’t do anything but if you’re working I’d much rather prefer it than 90+ degrees with killer dp’s.

95 is about the cutoff for me now. Fortunately we won't have to deal with that for a few months!

As an aside - does anyone else have an issue on this site where the page keeps scrolling down?? That and that darn clock setting is about to drive me nuts.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:10 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.

I’m tired of looking at the models and seeing all the rain go north and east of us..time after time after time. Tennessee and Kentucky are constantly in the bullseye. We’re gonna need some dang rain around here.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:33 pm I posted a first draft of this earlier but here is the full version I just posted on S2K:

So, I have to tell y'all...
I think last night was the coldest my body has ever been. We were at my youngest's baseball game, out in it for 3 hours. I layered-up as best as I could and it was still miserable in that cold wind. I had 5 layers on top and two layers on the bottom. I'm not kidding - I went prepared. But the cold, wet wind still cut right through like a knife. The fields are open and windy. I simply could not get warm or even comfortable. By the time we got back to my wife's vehicle with heated seats, my feet and hands were completely numb. And that was a strange feeling - they felt like bricks on the extremities.

I have lived in Lubbock on the high plains, frequented the New Mexico mountains in winter…and have never felt that cold before. I remember in Lubbock one time it was so cold my tires lost pressure and deflated and I had to change tires in the snow/cold, and I had pour anti-freeze radiator fluid in my car to get it started. This topped it all (although to be fair was out in the elements for a shorter time back then). Every single one of us out there last night was so glad when it was over. We are all ready for baseball weather. Thank goodness we have a warmup in the forecast and March is the beginning of the meteorological spring!!!

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.

The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 4:24 pm I had on thermals as my first layer. Still just couldn’t get warm.
I should have worn my snow boots instead of running shows though.

And yes if it were 10 degrees colder we’d be having one heck of an ice storm.

DoctorMU I’m glad you made it home safely and hopefully you’ll get that walk.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:00 pm And here it is...sorry for the Mets but the facts are the facts...

Wed: 31 degree bust
Wed night: 19 degree bust
Thu: 24 degree bust

And the cherry on top is we had significantly less precip than forecast too.

The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.

Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:08 pm

The shallow cold air definitely overperformed (as expected). Today's cold rain would be been an icy mess just 2-3 weeks ago.

Waco was slippery and icy, but manageable.

Hoping for an abatement of the rain this afternoon, so I can walk the dog.

Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.

Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm

Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.

Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:03 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.

I believe we’re about to go into a pretty bad drought. Severe weather will probably be from Arkansas to Illinois and points east and south of that line.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:03 am

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.

I believe we’re about to go into a pretty bad drought. Severe weather will probably be from Arkansas to Illinois and points east and south of that line.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 11:59 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 8:53 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 3:49 pm

Today would’ve been an epic event if only it were 10 degrees colder.

Yeah, the set-ups have been Oh so close this winter. We've had a couple of tastes in CLL, but just missed out on some epic La Nina Mischief.

Onto Severe Season I guess up here in the NW.

It'll be interesting to see if we have a severe weather season in the spring, or if we jump straight to capping and everything to the north. It seems like in recent years, our severe weather season has been in the winter months, rather than the spring. Probably a side effect of global warming and climate change.

2/28/2022 Are We Done With Freezing Temperatures?
Lately, I have been getting questions on whether we are done with freezing temperatures in Montgomery County. In this post, I will explore that possibility from a numerical weather model probabilistic perspective and then also from a statistical perspective—based on the area’s weather history or climatology.

The easy answer to this question is an emphatic “no” as a good portion of the area may see temperatures fall near or slightly below freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Well that would make this a very short post if I didn’t pursue this further. The good news is that once we get past Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures here slowly climb and by Friday morning, we should see temperatures get close to normal early March levels. Queue the pine pollen!

By Friday, we should see the southeast winds hook up with the Gulf of Mexico and that means we will see rising humidity and warmer nighttime temperatures. In other words, time to plant your warm season garden—tomatoes, beans, cucumbers etc. But are we done with freezing weather for the season? Taking a look at over 100 different model simulations from the American, European and Canadian model suites over the next 15 days, they all seem to be sniffing out another cold front by the end of next week or around the 11th or 12th of March—give or take a day. Currently, I am only seeing less than 5% of the model simulations showing temperatures near or below freezing. In fact most of the simulations show low temperatures in the upper 40s. I like those odds!

Again, these ensemble model runs only go out to March 14th and to be honest with you, the forecast skill really starts falling off rapidly after around 11-12 days into the future. So there is some uncertainty and even the current forecast for late next week can trend colder here. So what about the second half of the month of March? Or even April? Unfortunately, the science is just not yet good enough to know for sure. However, we can look back at 25 years of history at Conroe’s Montgomery County Airport (image below). Based on our past history or climate, there is around a 30% chance of seeing a freeze in Montgomery County from March 15th or later. By the time we get to April, these odds fall to 12%. Our last freeze in April was just three years ago on April 2. Worth noting, historically, all of our freezes here after around March 11th have been very marginal or “light” freezes, which means we should probably be able to get by with some freeze protection.

So in summary, based on the present forecast, along with statistical probabilities, once we get past the next couple of days, odds would suggest that the area will be done with encountering freezes. However, climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. And as we found out over the past few days, we don’t always like what we get. -WWD