March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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cureduchenne wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:37 pm We are in Dallas currently and need to get to Edna, southwest of Houston. We have 3 ways we could get home - Austin, Cameron, Houston - which of the ways would you suggest in traveling. We will be leaving by 1 pm. I was thinking Austin route but then saw I-35 is a possible hot spot. I appreciate your thoughts on this.
Fly. Like now, before it gets really bumpy.

Srsly. Waco to 77. The key is when. The sooner the better. Expecting the supercells to develop late afternoon to evening.
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Cloud cover looks to be thinning to the south looking at satellite. Probably south of the warm front.
Andrew
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The intial broken line that is expected to develop this afternoon is going to be something to closely watch across Central Texas as the ceiings remain pretty high in regards to tornadic capabilities. SRH between 0-1km is in the neighborhood of 300-400 m2 / s2 range over that region and while CAPE isn't as impressive if storms do develop they should remain discrete long enough to support a tornado or strong straight line winds. The HRRR is bouncing back and forth on development so it's going to be close.
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djmike
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Question. Will the slight, moderate, enhanced, etc… areas traverse east as the system moves into SETX? Or is what they have highlighted now be mainly bully’s eye areas? I know the hatched areas and such are on a map for Louisiana but what about the area between west houston to beaumont? Will that area be highlighted as the storm moves over us? …..god I hope that made sense. Lol
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Stratton20
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As Han Solo once said” I got a bad feeling about this” i definitely got that feeling, being in the bullseye for the highest tornado, hail and wind threat definitely has me on edge somewhat
Cpv17
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cureduchenne wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:37 pm We are in Dallas currently and need to get to Edna, southwest of Houston. We have 3 ways we could get home - Austin, Cameron, Houston - which of the ways would you suggest in traveling. We will be leaving by 1 pm. I was thinking Austin route but then saw I-35 is a possible hot spot. I appreciate your thoughts on this.
The further west you go on your route back home from Dallas, the greater odds are you’ll run into a severe storm. Areas future east aren’t expected to get into the action till this evening. I’d honestly say go down 45 but find some alternate route to bypass the Houston rush hour traffic. Maybe there’s some state Highway or FM road you can take around Huntsville or something.
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Starting to clear out in Brazoria County. I see the yellow orb in the sky now.
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TexasBreeze wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:41 pm Cloud cover looks to be thinning to the south looking at satellite. Probably south of the warm front.
I can confirm this. Starting to see peeks of the sun here in Wharton. I took off work at lunch today. Just got home.
cureduchenne
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:40 pm
cureduchenne wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:37 pm We are in Dallas currently and need to get to Edna, southwest of Houston. We have 3 ways we could get home - Austin, Cameron, Houston - which of the ways would you suggest in traveling. We will be leaving by 1 pm. I was thinking Austin route but then saw I-35 is a possible hot spot. I appreciate your thoughts on this.
Fly. Like now, before it gets really bumpy.

Srsly. Waco to 77. The key is when. The sooner the better. Expecting the supercells to develop late afternoon to evening.
Thanks for your input!
cureduchenne
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:54 pm
cureduchenne wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:37 pm We are in Dallas currently and need to get to Edna, southwest of Houston. We have 3 ways we could get home - Austin, Cameron, Houston - which of the ways would you suggest in traveling. We will be leaving by 1 pm. I was thinking Austin route but then saw I-35 is a possible hot spot. I appreciate your thoughts on this.
The further west you go on your route back home from Dallas, the greater odds are you’ll run into a severe storm. Areas future east aren’t expected to get into the action till this evening. I’d honestly say go down 45 but find some alternate route to bypass the Houston rush hour traffic. Maybe there’s some state Highway or FM road you can take around Huntsville or something.
Thanks for your input!
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The sun is breaking through fast moving cloud deck in NW Galveston County.
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don
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Cromagnum wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:54 pm Starting to clear out in Brazoria County. I see the yellow orb in the sky now.
Yep the same here, the sun is trying to peak out now.
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djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:44 pm Question. Will the slight, moderate, enhanced, etc… areas traverse east as the system moves into SETX? Or is what they have highlighted now be mainly bully’s eye areas? I know the hatched areas and such are on a map for Louisiana but what about the area between west houston to beaumont? Will that area be highlighted as the storm moves over us? …..god I hope that made sense. Lol

The SPC has a valid time between 12Z and 12Z the next day. So the highlighted area is where severe weather is expected from 12z until 12z the next morning. You can look at day two and see where they expect severe weather after that 12z timeframe. So to answer your question, no the area shouldn't adjust with the system. They may make adjustments to the region based on where the line is during the early morning hours but they don't follow the system like you are saying.
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djmike
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Andrew wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:03 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:44 pm Question. Will the slight, moderate, enhanced, etc… areas traverse east as the system moves into SETX? Or is what they have highlighted now be mainly bully’s eye areas? I know the hatched areas and such are on a map for Louisiana but what about the area between west houston to beaumont? Will that area be highlighted as the storm moves over us? …..god I hope that made sense. Lol

The SPC has a valid time between 12Z and 12Z the next day. So the highlighted area is where severe weather is expected from 12z until 12z the next morning. You can look at day two and see where they expect severe weather after that 12z timeframe. So to answer your question, no the area shouldn't adjust with the system. They may make adjustments to the region based on where the line is during the early morning hours but they don't follow the system like you are saying.
Awesome. That’s exactly what I was trying to ask. Thanks for answering that. I feel a little better that Beaumont is not in the worst expected areas. But lots can change. Thanks for explaining. Stay safe everyone.
Mike
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Cpv17
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djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:10 pm
Andrew wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:03 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:44 pm Question. Will the slight, moderate, enhanced, etc… areas traverse east as the system moves into SETX? Or is what they have highlighted now be mainly bully’s eye areas? I know the hatched areas and such are on a map for Louisiana but what about the area between west houston to beaumont? Will that area be highlighted as the storm moves over us? …..god I hope that made sense. Lol

The SPC has a valid time between 12Z and 12Z the next day. So the highlighted area is where severe weather is expected from 12z until 12z the next morning. You can look at day two and see where they expect severe weather after that 12z timeframe. So to answer your question, no the area shouldn't adjust with the system. They may make adjustments to the region based on where the line is during the early morning hours but they don't follow the system like you are saying.
Awesome. That’s exactly what I was trying to ask. Thanks for answering that. I feel a little better that Beaumont is not in the worst expected areas. But lots can change. Thanks for explaining. Stay safe everyone.
Beaumont area will probably be more in the squall line but even then you’ll have a tornado risk. It’s those discrete supercells that you really want to avoid and you’ll be sandwiched in between them. Today they’ll be to your west, tomorrow to your east.
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djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:10 pm
Andrew wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:03 pm
djmike wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:44 pm Question. Will the slight, moderate, enhanced, etc… areas traverse east as the system moves into SETX? Or is what they have highlighted now be mainly bully’s eye areas? I know the hatched areas and such are on a map for Louisiana but what about the area between west houston to beaumont? Will that area be highlighted as the storm moves over us? …..god I hope that made sense. Lol

The SPC has a valid time between 12Z and 12Z the next day. So the highlighted area is where severe weather is expected from 12z until 12z the next morning. You can look at day two and see where they expect severe weather after that 12z timeframe. So to answer your question, no the area shouldn't adjust with the system. They may make adjustments to the region based on where the line is during the early morning hours but they don't follow the system like you are saying.
Awesome. That’s exactly what I was trying to ask. Thanks for answering that. I feel a little better that Beaumont is not in the worst expected areas. But lots can change. Thanks for explaining. Stay safe everyone.
No problem! I think areas east of the Houston area see a greater flooding risk vs severe weather risk. With that said, strong winds and isolated tornadoes will remain possible as LLJ will remain over the region. THe big difference between down here and across Central Texas is they are likely to see more isolated convection which has a better chance of turning tornadic.
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don
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SPC discussion
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes, including the potential for a few strong
tornadoes, along with very large hail and damaging winds are
expected this afternoon through tonight, especially across parts of
central/east Texas into western Louisiana.

...Northwest to south-central/east TX into southern OK...
Have introduced a Moderate Risk (Category 4 of 5) for portions of
central/east-central Texas centered on late this afternoon and
evening, including parts of the Interstates 35/45 corridors.
Expectations are for an initially semi-discrete supercellular mode
with very large hail and some tornado potential, transitioning by
evening to potential for large hail/damaging winds and tornadoes as
storms spread east-northeastward with a more complex convective mode
gradually evolving.

At midday, a closed upper trough continues to pivot eastward,
centered over southern New Mexico and nearby far northern Mexico,
with the exit region of a strong mid/upper-level jet (90+ kt at 500
mb) beginning to overspread central/east Texas. Cloud cover remains
rather persistent at midday within the warm sector, but this
sheltering/inhibited mixing is a contributing factor to the quick
north/northwestward advection of a moist air mass (70F surface
dewpoints) that is already becoming increasing well-established
across south-central/southeast Texas.

As robust mid-level DCVA occurs with a shortwave impulse ejecting
out of the basal portion of an amplified trough, surface-based
thunderstorm development is initially anticipated early to
mid-afternoon near the triple-point cyclone and arcing south along
the dryline during the late afternoon across portions of central to
south-central Texas. Cooling 500-mb temperatures and steep mid-level
lapse rates should foster potential for a few semi-discrete
supercells along this upper portion of the Red River Valley. Severe
hail and brief tornadoes will probably be the main hazards as
convection likely spreads into a less favorable environment with
northern extent in Oklahoma.

Convection farther southeast and south from north-central to
south-central TX will have a progressively larger warm/moist sector
ahead of the dryline. With MLCAPE likely to reach 1500-2000 J/kg in
conjunction with an approaching 80-kt 500-mb speed max, several
supercells should develop with a primary initial threat of very
large hail. The bulk of guidance suggests the low-level jet will
shift east-northeast during the evening which suggests that
low-level hodograph curvature and attendant SRH, while adequate for
tornadoes, may not be particularly large for the supercells
initiating along the dryline. Nevertheless, potential remains
apparently for a couple long-tracked supercells emanating from near
the I-35 corridor in central/south-central Texas east-northeastward
into parts of east Texas.

...Ark-La-Tex to southeast Texas...
With time this evening, one or more linear clusters with embedded
supercells and bowing structures should evolve from a combination of
initial dryline storms and regenerative convection within the warm
conveyor. A rather messy mode of severe hazards is expected to
accompany this evolution with an elongated slow-moving QLCS
anticipated overnight, as the primary shortwave impulse shifts
towards the Lower Missouri Valley and a secondary lobe hangs back
near the Texas/Mexico border. Amid an expansive swath of 50-60 kt
low-level flow and rich western Gulf boundary-layer moisture, all
severe hazards will remain possible through the overnight, although
probably on a more isolated basis in terms of coverage.
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From S2K

CAPE is higher than expected, approaching 2,500 J/kg in Southern Texas compared to just over 2,000 J/kg.
Supercell Composite is ridiculous, the RAP model (The one they use for the Mesoanalysis on some of the thermodynamics, the HRRR is used for radar) expected a SCP of 16 in parts of Southern/SE Texas, it's at 20 just to the NW of Corpus Christi
Dls2010r
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So what does that mean? I am in Galveston County!
Cromagnum
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Dls2010r wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:30 pm So what does that mean? I am in Galveston County!
Means more energy and more spin = more organized storms.
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