March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
Posts: 1913
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:46 am

Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 4191
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun Mar 27, 2022 12:36 pm

Cromagnum wrote:
Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:46 am
Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.
Am thinking about getting the full monty of crawfish boil hardware. No one does them right in this area of Texas. Not enough cayenne, salt, lemon, onion, crab oil in the solution/water. Too much allspice. Not enough soak after the boil. Most boiled crawfish here are flavorless or have the wrong flavor profile. If you can't see flakes of cayenne pepper between corn kernels and a bite into the baby potatoes don't make your eyes water and your fingers don't burn after peeling back crawfish tails you're not doing it right! lol :lol:

Cpv17
Posts: 3603
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 12:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Mar 27, 2022 1:33 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Sun Mar 27, 2022 12:36 pm
Cromagnum wrote:
Sun Mar 27, 2022 10:46 am
Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.
Am thinking about getting the full monty of crawfish boil hardware. No one does them right in this area of Texas. Not enough cayenne, salt, lemon, onion, crab oil in the solution/water. Too much allspice. Not enough soak after the boil. Most boiled crawfish here are flavorless or have the wrong flavor profile. If you can't see flakes of cayenne pepper between corn kernels and a bite into the baby potatoes don't make your eyes water and your fingers don't burn after peeling back crawfish tails you're not doing it right! lol :lol:
Amen to that!!

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3692
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:47 am

000
FXUS64 KHGX 281130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail until late this evening when low level
cloud cover increases to form MVFR ceilings. These MVFR ceilings
will reach the coast around 05Z and spread further north
overnight and reach KCLL and KUTS by 08Z. Breezy southerly winds
today with winds still staying gentle to moderate overnight due to
a strengthening low over Southwest US.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...

Southerly winds have stayed strong enough overnight to keep patchy
fog away. However, should these winds decrease early this morning,
patchy fog and low cloud ceilings are possible until 8 AM.
Meanwhile, a surface high pressure over the Gulf and Southeast US
along with ridging aloft will bring a warm and partly cloudy day
for Southeast Texas. Low level moisture advection from onshore
flow will help raise dewpoints and help to increase low level
cloud cover throughout the day. These clouds will help keep
temperatures in the low to mid 80s for daytime highs and warm our
overnight lows into the low to mid 60s. Onshore flow will stay
gentle to moderate overnight as a strengthening low over the
Southwest US increases our local pressure gradient.

By tomorrow, this pressure gradient continues to increase and
portions of our CWA south of I-10 and west of I-45 could
potentially see a wind advisory tomorrow afternoon as sustained wind
speeds reach 25-30 mph with higher gusts. This will really amplify
low level moisture advection and increase our temperatures, but
increasing cloud cover should cap our daytime highs in the mid 80s
tomorrow. Some isolated coastal showers could push inland tomorrow
due to increasing low level moisture advection and lowering
heights aloft from an approaching cold front.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

The main forecast question of Tuesday night - and more or less the
entire forecast period - will be the location, pace, and intensity
of thunderstorms moving into and across the region through the
night and Wednesday morning. To a fair extent, this is going to be
determined by mesoscale features that are still difficult to parse
at this range. So my PoPs jump somewhat abruptly from dry in the
evening to at least a slight chance stretching to the coast after
midnight, though in a true deterministic forecast, I`d roll a
sharp gradient across the area through the night. But since there
is not enough skill to do that right now, I have a pretty
significant fuzz of PoPs through the night.

While my confidence in timing is lower, I do have strong
confidence in the broad idea of the forecast - a line of showers
and thunderstorms will initiate on a dry line/cold front tomorrow
evening, make their way into the area from the northwest late
tonight, and spend Wednesday morning crossing Southeast Texas. By
the time the storms reach our area, they should have grown upscale
into a linear feature, which likely makes straight line winds in
small bowing segments of the line a prime threat. However, given
that we are in one of those `oh so lovely` low CAPE-high shear
environments, fueled by a strong discrepancy between strong
surface inflow and a 60 knot (or higher!) low level jet, we`ll
also have to be on the lookout for brief tornadoes developing in
locations of cells that become exposed more to that shear vector.
I don`t expect to see an event that matches our last severe event,
but there is enough threat to stay cognizant of it. It`ll be a
good idea to make sure you go to bed Tuesday night with multiple
ways of receiving weather warnings able to rouse you.

The forecast on this weather has stayed pretty stable over the
last few days, so expectations aren`t really any different from
what has been discussed in previous days, and my thinking is
pretty close to what is laid out in the Day 2/3 severe weather
outlook from SPC as well. The most dangerous threat will likely be
to our north and east, with a lower threat in the northern and
eastern portions of our forecast area, decreasing towards and down
the Gulf coast. If I had to pick a most likely area for severe
weather in this area of responsibility, I`d focus up in the
northeastern corner of the area beyond Lake Livingston in Houston,
Trinity, and Polk counties on Wednesday morning as the nocturnal
surface layer recouples with the deeper atmospheric column.

After that, things should come to an end pretty rapidly as the
redeveloping line of storms marches quickly into the lower
Mississippi Valley leaving behind a sunny sky in its wake. Since
I`m expecting the storms to outpace the front itself, this will
likely give us a period Wednesday afternoon in which the sky is
sunny, winds have become westerly, but the front and its
attendant cooler airmass aren`t quite here yet. This would
definitely not be the first time I`ve seen Galveston set a record
high because of this setup. Because of that, I continue to shoot
above the NBM forecast for highs on Wednesday. I blended with the
75th percentile so the end result is somewhere in between, as the
75th percentile values explicitly are quite warm, and too high
considering we should have clouds and at least some rainfall
preceding it. Still, this means I have highs in the mid 80s in the
coastal plain and even nudging 90 degrees down in the southwest
where we have the least chance of seeing widespread wetting
rainfall.

The front should move through shortly after to cut down those
temps though, so after that last gasp of heat in the afternoon, I
drive temps down into the 40s and 50s by Thursday morning. This
should give us a cooler couple of days, but with onshore flow
expected to return by Friday, low level moisture should quickly
boost humidity and raise the overnight temperature floor, putting
an end to a very brief cooldown.

Another upper trough looks to swing through this weekend, which
will push a weaker, reinforcing front across the region complete
with another round of showers and perhaps some embedded
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. While not as vigorous as
the midweek front, it will give us another modest cooldown for the
rest of the week. How modest? Forecast temps are pretty close to
seasonal averages at the end of the forecast period.


.MARINE...

Onshore winds are expected to continue increasing along with
building seas through the first half of the week ahead of a
frontal passage on Wednesday. Winds early this morning are high
enough to require caution flags on the Gulf tonight, as we often
see wind speeds bump up modestly at night. And though they may
briefly lull enough to bring down the caution this afternoon, by
tonight or Tuesday, a small craft advisory will be needed for at
least a portion of the coastal waters. A fast moving line of
storms is set to enter Southeast Texas very late Tuesday night,
and cross the marine areas Wednesday morning ahead of and along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 83 65 83 64 84 / 0 10 10 80 50
Houston (IAH) 82 66 83 66 85 / 0 10 0 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 75 68 81 / 0 10 10 10 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs

Stratton20
Posts: 2747
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:18 am

Im really not concerned with the severe threat on wednesday, just expecting some general thunderstorms, maybe an isolated atrong storm

User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Posts: 323
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 1:50 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:35 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 10:18 am
Im really not concerned with the severe threat on wednesday, just expecting some general thunderstorms, maybe an isolated atrong storm
Yeah. At this point, I am hoping for 0.5-1 inch of rain out of this. I need some rain to water in some fertilizer now that everything is finally budding. I have daffodils that are just now blooming! Normally, they bloom around Valentine's Day.

User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1273
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by Texaspirate11 » Mon Mar 28, 2022 8:51 pm

HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3692
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:41 am

00
FXUS64 KHGX 291120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings early this morning are expected to lift
during the day with a SCT/BKN VFR deck this afternoon. Increasing
and gusty S winds can be expected today and on into tonight with
MVFR ceilings returning after 00Z. Have VCSH entering the area
(CLL/UTS) first tonight then area wide toward 12Z. Will evaluate
new models this morning for possible inclusion of VCTS/TSRA. Rapid
clearing anticipated from W to E during the morning hours tomorrow.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf waters and surface low
pressure deepening to the lee of the Rockies today will bring a tightening
pressure gradient and increasing south winds to our area. A Wind Advisory
will be in effect for mainly western and coastal locations beginning
at 10 AM this morning and continuing into and through the nighttime
hours tonight when a strong low level jet will be setting up. Look for
inland high temperatures to be mainly in the low to mid 80s under partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Increasing clouds tonight along with increasing
rain chances are still expected as the dryline/prefrontal trof moves
into the area from the west later tonight and on through tomorrow morning.
Low temperatures should remain in a mid 60s to low 70s range. Mainly
showers and some isolated thunderstorms are anticipated, and limited
instability is expected to keep the most significant a majority of strong/severe
thunderstorms just outside our area. Rapid clearing from west to east
can be expected to develop behind this activity with sunny skies anticipated
for a majority of the area in the afternoon. A dry west wind in combination
with falling relative humidities will bring an increasing fire risk
to portions of the area (see the Fire Weather section below). This flow
could boost temperatures into a mid to upper 80 range (maybe even a
90 here and there?) for a large part of the area, especially for locations
that receive minimal rainfall amounts. Galveston`s high temperature
record on Wednesday (3/30) of 85 degrees set in 1879 might be in jeopardy
of being tied or broken. The system`s cold front will swing into and
eventually through the area late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening, and look for a much cooler night Wednesday night with lows
ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast.

42

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

High pressure will fill in behind Wednesday`s frontal passage along
with northerly winds. Therefore, highs will reach the mid to upper
70s with the exception of our southwestern counties which will still
warm to the upper 80s. It will also be noticeably drier with
relative humidity getting as low as 25-35% on Thursday afternoon. A
weak upper level shortwave sweeping through could bring some upper
level clouds across Southeast Texas, but for the most part it`ll be
a warm and sunny day.

High pressure begins to push to the east on Friday and winds will
slowly veer to east and eventually the southeast by Saturday. Cloud
cover also begins to gradually increase from the south on Friday and
push further inland as a weak warm front offshore begins to push
towards the Gulf Coast. By Saturday, this weak frontal boundary gets
invigorated by an upper level shortwave and its surface cold front,
which should bring upwards of a quarter of an inch of rain for our
area. Afterwards, high pressure builds in on Sunday, but global
models start to diverge early next week regarding the timing for our
next chance of rain as a few upper level shortwaves embedded in
primarily zonal flow aloft help kick up a few afternoon showers.

Regarding temperatures, daytime highs still range in the upper 70s
to low 80s from Friday through early next week with Saturday being
the warmest and most humid day thanks to the warm front. Overnight
lows gradually climb from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday night
to the 60s by Monday.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Fresh to strong onshore winds are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect starting at 7AM this morning until at least 1 PM Wednesday
afternoon. Seas will build quickly and reach at least 8 feet by
midnight tonight for our offshore waters. Gusts could are expected
to occasionally reach near 35 knots this afternoon as well. With
ample onshore flow, there is an increased risk for rip currents
today, so beachgoers should practice proper beach safety tips such
as swimming near manned lifeguard stations and avoiding swimming
near jetties. The cold front should pass through our coastal waters
by Wednesday afternoon and offshore winds will fill in behind the
frontal passage shortly before midnight tomorrow. Winds become
northwesterly and westerly through Saturday until a warm front
draped across the Gulf pushes north and onshore through our coastal
waters.

Lenninger

FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday afternoon could have increasing fire weather risks (lowering
relative humidities of 15 to 25% along with breezy west winds as high
as 15 to 20 mph and gusty). If the Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning rainfall amounts are limited where these humidity and wind
conditions set up, critical fire weather conditions can be expected.
A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
early Wednesday evening for areas near and to the south of a line from
the Brenham area to the Houston area to the Galveston area, especially
for locations closer to the Jackson-Matagorda-Wharton county area. The
Fire Weather Watch might need to be upgraded to a Fire Weather Warning.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 67 84 47 75 / 0 90 80 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 68 86 51 77 / 0 70 90 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 69 83 60 75 / 0 60 90 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington...
Wharton.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
the following zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Cromagnum
Posts: 1913
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:14 am

Okay, let's get some cool fronts back in the mix before the 6 month furnace sets in.

User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 3692
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:31 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings conditions are expected
this afternoon along with gusty southerly winds. Breezy to gusty
winds will continue through the night as pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the next FROPA. Some LLWS between 1400-2000 ft
around 35 to 45 knots will be possible around KUTS late tonight. The
front should move through the northwestern terminals (KCLL/KUTS)
by early Wed morning and the rest of the terminals through the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected as the front moves
through, with VFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 66 84 47 75 48 / 70 90 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 86 51 77 51 / 40 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 82 60 73 62 / 20 60 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...05

Post Reply