March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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From the Jackson MS. AFD..( Not here!!)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
708 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...


DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Quite an active day in store for the region. Just walk outside and
you can tell something in the weather will occur today. It has been
very warm overnight with temperatures in the lower 70s through the
night. A very potent southerly wind has prevailed with the 850mb low
level jet really kicking in tonight. Sustained winds overnight have
been 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts, even a brief near 40kt
gust at JAN.

Much of the forecast thinking remains the same. The upper trough
across the west will continue to track east and become negatively
tilted with time. As this occurs, the 990mb surface low will track
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region and deepen. The line of
storms currently ongoing over the DFW metroplex will continue to
track east through the morning hours. This line is expected to reach
the western part of our forecast are by around noon-1pm. Some of
this line may be a little broken at first before intensifying and
congealing more into a solid squall line/QLCS. This line is expected
to quickly become severe as it encounters an airmass that will reach
the low to mid 80s before it moves through. Widespread 1400-1600
J/kg of MUCAPE, 45-55kts of deep layer shear, 300-600 m2/s2 helicity
all look to be in place to organize storms and produce a potent QLCS
to move through the region today. Given the abundance of wind in
place today, widespread damaging winds up to 80mph is expected and
there remains potential for tornadoes as well, including a strong
tornado. CAM guidance still indicates less potential for discrete
storms to develop ahead of the line(which if one of these were to
occur would be more supportive to produce a strong tornado in this
environment). With sufficient mixing today, 20 degree
Temperature/dewpoint spreads would support higher LCL heights, which
could mitigate tornadogenesis but especially reduce the strong
tornado risk today. However this risk remains non-zero given the
sufficient shear and helicity in place and if a supercell were to
develop along the line then the risk for a stronger tornado would
exist. A moderate risk still is in place for the entire region.
However, it is prudent to note that with this event we are not
expecting the QLCS to produce quite the numbers of tornadoes as we
saw last week, though certainly an embedded one is possible. We are
most concerned about the damaging wind aspect of this line and this
will certainly be widespread and likely to affect a larger portion
of our population. Winds up to 80mph, in addition to the gradient
wind ahead of the line, will pose risks of downed trees and
powerlines and result in power outages.

Of additional concern is the gradient wind ahead of/outside of
thunderstorms today. As mentioned, winds are already stout this
morning and with additional mixing up to around 850mb which would
suggest tapping into gusts around 45-50kts, and increasing low level
jet, winds will only continue to get stronger ahead of the squall
line through the afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph will be
possible, but we could see some higher gusts of 55-60mph. Generally
speaking, I feel really good about the gusts nearing 55mph, but am
quite concerned about a few locations(likely more isolated than
widespread) of reaching 60mph. That being said, the gradient winds
will be as much of a concern ahead of the line and have gone ahead
and issued a High Wind Warning to account for this. Once the line
passes, winds will remain gusty but should return to gusts closer to
20-25mph through the evening into tonight. Gusts will diminish after
midnight to around 15mph.

As the line moves through the region, there could be some locally
heavy rainfall. However, given the quick movement to it and lack of
indications of any training storms, the flooding risk is of lower
concern and will continue to not mention this in the HWO or
graphics.

Hold on to your hats, folks....it will be a windy, active weather
day today! /28/
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don
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Tornado Warning
TXC201-339-301430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0022.220330T1404Z-220330T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
904 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 904 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Pinehurst, moving east at 20 to 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
The Woodlands around 920 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


&&

LAT...LON 3021 9573 3025 9570 3021 9545 3008 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 290DEG 26KT 3022 9568

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$
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tireman4
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Radar 03 30 22 9 18 am
Attachments
Radar 03 30 22 9 18 am.png
Cromagnum
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Ok, so we got more backfilling than expected which is great. Maybe some of us can squeeze a quick quarter inch out.
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don
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC201-301530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0029.220330T1453Z-220330T1530Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 952 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hidden
Valley, or over Greater Greenspoint, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Midtown Houston, Cloverleaf, Downtown
Houston, Northside / Northline, Second Ward, Greater Greenspoint,
Greater Heights, Greater Eastwood, Near Northside Houston, Greater
Fifth Ward, Aldine, Greater Third Ward, Fourth Ward, Channelview,
Macgregor, Neartown / Montrose, eastern Memorial Park and Golfcrest
/ Bellfort / Reveille.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
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tireman4
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning...
Attachments
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 03 30 22 .png
Cpv17
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Well that was more than I expected.
mcheer23
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Next system moves through next Tuesday.... Latest GFS is more aggressive with this system around Houston.
High temps next Wednesday could be near 90...
TexasBreeze
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Maybe if we can keep up this pattern of rain once a week we will be ok, but things do change. Could be the usual Easter week cool air setup before fronts begin stalling and retreating north. Coming soon!
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jasons2k
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.49”

After what I saw last night I’ll gladly take it!
Cromagnum
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Watch out Cajun cousins. Yikes.
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captainbarbossa19
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So glad this system over-performed what was forecasted on rainfall. If we keep up these weekly storm systems, we should be in good shape once we get closer to summer. The driest summers almost always follow very dry springs.

On another note, I hope the weather does not get too bad towards our east! Praying it does not get too rough.
javakah
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Wow, hadn't looked at the convective outlook until just now. Not every day that you see an entire state in a 15% hatched area for tornadoes.
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DoctorMu
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That line still looks nasty approach Baton Rouge.

0.46 inches here and now beautiful SoCal weather for a few days. Warm. Dry. Sunny. A breeze.

We had gusts of 50 mph last night. Some of the back patio furniture got tossed into the yard.
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DoctorMu
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javakah wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:53 pm Wow, hadn't looked at the convective outlook until just now. Not every day that you see an entire state in a 15% hatched area for tornadoes.

The entire state of MS. Whoa.

Image
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:06 pm That line still looks nasty approach Baton Rouge.

0.46 inches here and now beautiful SoCal weather for a few days. Warm. Dry. Sunny. A breeze.

We had gusts of 50 mph last night. Some of the back patio furniture got tossed into the yard.
Yeah, similar here too. We have a lot of plants still in plastic pots laid out all across our back flower beds, and along the back fence. Several of them were blown over overnight. I don’t know how well they got watered if they were laying down sideways. Not much.
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DoctorMu
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Testing to see how far off the posting timestamp is. It was a little confusing during severe storms and when cells were headed our way.
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DoctorMu
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OK. 23 minutes fast. That's even more ahead than my wife's old watch (so she wouldn't be late) :lol:
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 311733
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the duration of the current
TAF period as winds remain generally light and variable throughout
the day. Winds shift gradually to the east overnight and later the
southeast tomorrow afternoon, with wind speeds increasing to
around 10-15 knots.

Cady
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