March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: March 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:49 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 8:51 pm
HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Hopefully, we escape night time long tacking cells this week!

Image


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight from the
lower Missouri Valley region to central Texas. Damaging gusts,
severe hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20Z Update...
Convection should initiate across parts of south-central KS near the
triple point around 22-00Z. Increasing but still relatively modest
low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong
deep-layer shear should support organized thunderstorms across this
region. Severe hail and damaging winds will be a threat with any
supercells that can develop and spread into eastern KS/western MO
and vicinity this evening. There will also be a window during the
mid to late evening for a few tornadoes as low-level shear increases
with a strengthening low-level jet, but before the boundary layer
stabilizes. Have expanded the 5% tornado area a little to account
for this potential. Also nudged severe probabilities westward
slightly in western OK to where recent high-resolution guidance
suggests storms may initiate along the dryline by 01-02Z.

Across northeast NE/northwest IA and vicinity, have compressed
severe hail probabilities to where destabilization appears most
likely to occur by later this evening. The northward extent of the
severe threat should quickly wane as convection moves northeastward
into a less unstable airmass.

Thunderstorms are still expected to develop mainly after 00Z this
evening across parts of west/central TX as the cap along the dryline
slowly erodes and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough
overspreads this region. Damaging winds should be the main threat as
convection quickly grows upscale, but some large hail may occur
within the first few hours of convective initiation given the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk
shear.

..Gleason.. 03/29/2022

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don
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Re: March 2022

Post by don » Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:01 pm

Texaspirate11 wrote:
Mon Mar 28, 2022 8:51 pm
HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Very informative, they even show camera footage of the tornado in Brazoria County.

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jasons2k
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Re: March 2022

Post by jasons2k » Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:54 pm

Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.

Cpv17
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Re: March 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:38 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 8:54 pm
Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.
I’ve never expected much from this event. Maybe one or two tenths. I’ll take it.

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Re: March 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Tue Mar 29, 2022 10:53 pm

Dixie Alley looks primed to get beat up on all over again.

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djmike
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Re: March 2022

Post by djmike » Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:37 am

So far looks like a thin line of light showers to move through, hopefully nothing dangerous for SETX. Of course things can change and will bare watching.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)

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Re: March 2022

Post by Cromagnum » Wed Mar 30, 2022 5:54 am

Doesn't look like much at all happening. So much for the rain.

Iceresistance
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Re: March 2022

Post by Iceresistance » Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:49 am

I had a really close call last night with a Tornado-Warned Storm that had the Mesocyclone that missed my house by less than a mile, I was woken up by my Grandmother at 11:38 PM to it, she said that it was "Just another storm with a LOT of Lightning & Thunder". But then, "The wind started to pick up & it was strange".

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tireman4
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Re: March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:08 am

Raining here in the Gulfgate area of Houston...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.AVIATION...
SHRA and possible TSRA will move to the E across SE TX early this morning
with mainly MVFR ceilings. Lower ceilings and visibilities can be expected
in/around the stronger SHRA/TSRA activity. Gusty S winds will shift
to the W behind the rains as skies clear out, and winds will weaken
later in the afternoon. Lighter winds can be expected this evening and
on into the overnight hours. Quiet tomorrow morning with N to NE winds
at 5 to 10 knots.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms that have developed ahead of a cold front
are working their way eastward and will be entering our area from the
west before sunrise. Instability is quite limited, but there remains some
potential for possible strong or severe development. The higher risk areas
are across our very far northern counties and locations off to our north
and east. Strong/gusty south to southeast winds remain in place across much
of Southeast Texas early this morning with the highest gusts over the last
several hours reaching 40 to almost 50 mph! This flow has helped to keep
overnight lows so far in the 70s across the entire area, and no cooling is
anticipated before sunrise. These warm lows would normally tie or break
record high minimum temperatures for today, but cooler readings will move
into the area this evening in the wake of the passage of a cold front.
Before the front`s arrival, expect the showers and possible thunderstorms
to sweep eastward across the area this morning. Rapid clearing/drying and
warmer temperatures can be expected this afternoon as winds shift to the west
(winds will remain on the gusty side but values are expected to be below wind
advisory criteria), and much lower humidities in combination with the gusty
west winds will support rapid fire growth potential (see the Fire Weather
Section below for details). Look for high temperatures this afternoon in the
80s for much of the area, and the City of Galveston might flirt with near
record values (today`s record high is 85 degrees set way back in 1879).

The passage of the cold front will bring our temperatures back down to the
cool side tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s inland to the
mid to upper 50s at the coast. The end of the month (Thursday) and Thursday
night will remain on the quiet side with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in
the 40s/50s.

42

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure begins to slide east on Friday, ushering in easterly
flow. Temps climb into the low 80s and overnight lows dip into the
mid 50s except south of I-10 where some low level cloud cover will
only let temps reach the low 60s overnight. By Saturday, a warm
front draped across the Gulf will push north and inland on Saturday.
Despite plenty of cloud cover across our CWA, temps and dewpoints
will climb due to deep gulf moisture advection. Therefore, temps
will reach the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and overnight lows will
only cool down to near 60. Late Sunday through Monday, global models
hint at a small upper level shortwave pushing through the Southern
Plains and bringing some spotty showers across our area. However, it
looks like the next best chance for rain will be Monday evening
through Tuesday afternoon as a deeper trough pushes through Texas.
This pushes out by Wednesday and high pressure quickly fills in
behind it. Regarding temperatures, Southeast Texas will hover in the
mid to upper 80s from Sunday onwards while overnight lows stay in
the 60s.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Strong southerly winds will continue throughout most of the morning
and afternoon ahead of a cold front passing through. Therefore, all
of our coastal waters are under a Small Craft Advisory through 1PM
until winds subside in our bays. A mix of Advisory level winds/seas
remain for our offshore waters through the late evening. With strong
onshore flow today, our rip current risk will be high and therefore
a rip current statement is in effect through 7PM tonight. Regarding
rain chances, some showers and storms are possible around sunrise
this morning through early afternoon as the cold front moves out of
our area by 1PM. Afterwards, we can expect northerly flow through
the overnight hours tonight and then northeasterly to easterly flow
through Friday evening.

Lenninger

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon through
early this evening due to an increasing fire weather risk
(lowering relative humidities of 15 to 25% along with breezy
west winds as high as 15 to 20 mph and gusty). This warning
replaces the Fire Weather Watch and includes several counties
to the north (including Madison County where a burn ban is
currently in effect). If today`s rainfall amounts (from the
overnight hours through this morning) end up on the low side
where these humidity and wind conditions set up, critical fire
weather conditions can be expected. The Warning will be in
effect for areas near and to the west of a line from the
Madisonville area to the Houston area to the Galveston area,
especially for locations closer to the Jackson-Matagorda-Wharton
county area. If humidities and winds materialize as expected,
any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.

42

CLIMATE...

The low temperature for the City of Houston yesterday (March 29th)
of 71 degrees tied the old record high minimum temperatures of 71
degrees last set in 2007.

On average, the City of Houston normally does not have their first
morning low of 71 degrees until May 27th.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 47 75 49 81 / 90 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 51 78 52 80 / 80 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 61 73 63 73 / 60 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

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tireman4
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Re: March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Mar 30, 2022 8:09 am

It will be a bumpy ride for our neighbors to the East.

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