March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cromagnum
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Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:46 am Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.
Am thinking about getting the full monty of crawfish boil hardware. No one does them right in this area of Texas. Not enough cayenne, salt, lemon, onion, crab oil in the solution/water. Too much allspice. Not enough soak after the boil. Most boiled crawfish here are flavorless or have the wrong flavor profile. If you can't see flakes of cayenne pepper between corn kernels and a bite into the baby potatoes don't make your eyes water and your fingers don't burn after peeling back crawfish tails you're not doing it right! lol :lol:
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 1:36 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Sun Mar 27, 2022 11:46 am Beautiful day for a backyard crawfish boil. Hopefully get to bank some needed rain mid-week.
Am thinking about getting the full monty of crawfish boil hardware. No one does them right in this area of Texas. Not enough cayenne, salt, lemon, onion, crab oil in the solution/water. Too much allspice. Not enough soak after the boil. Most boiled crawfish here are flavorless or have the wrong flavor profile. If you can't see flakes of cayenne pepper between corn kernels and a bite into the baby potatoes don't make your eyes water and your fingers don't burn after peeling back crawfish tails you're not doing it right! lol :lol:
Amen to that!!
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 281130
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will prevail until late this evening when low level
cloud cover increases to form MVFR ceilings. These MVFR ceilings
will reach the coast around 05Z and spread further north
overnight and reach KCLL and KUTS by 08Z. Breezy southerly winds
today with winds still staying gentle to moderate overnight due to
a strengthening low over Southwest US.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 350 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Today Through Tuesday]...

Southerly winds have stayed strong enough overnight to keep patchy
fog away. However, should these winds decrease early this morning,
patchy fog and low cloud ceilings are possible until 8 AM.
Meanwhile, a surface high pressure over the Gulf and Southeast US
along with ridging aloft will bring a warm and partly cloudy day
for Southeast Texas. Low level moisture advection from onshore
flow will help raise dewpoints and help to increase low level
cloud cover throughout the day. These clouds will help keep
temperatures in the low to mid 80s for daytime highs and warm our
overnight lows into the low to mid 60s. Onshore flow will stay
gentle to moderate overnight as a strengthening low over the
Southwest US increases our local pressure gradient.

By tomorrow, this pressure gradient continues to increase and
portions of our CWA south of I-10 and west of I-45 could
potentially see a wind advisory tomorrow afternoon as sustained wind
speeds reach 25-30 mph with higher gusts. This will really amplify
low level moisture advection and increase our temperatures, but
increasing cloud cover should cap our daytime highs in the mid 80s
tomorrow. Some isolated coastal showers could push inland tomorrow
due to increasing low level moisture advection and lowering
heights aloft from an approaching cold front.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Monday]...

The main forecast question of Tuesday night - and more or less the
entire forecast period - will be the location, pace, and intensity
of thunderstorms moving into and across the region through the
night and Wednesday morning. To a fair extent, this is going to be
determined by mesoscale features that are still difficult to parse
at this range. So my PoPs jump somewhat abruptly from dry in the
evening to at least a slight chance stretching to the coast after
midnight, though in a true deterministic forecast, I`d roll a
sharp gradient across the area through the night. But since there
is not enough skill to do that right now, I have a pretty
significant fuzz of PoPs through the night.

While my confidence in timing is lower, I do have strong
confidence in the broad idea of the forecast - a line of showers
and thunderstorms will initiate on a dry line/cold front tomorrow
evening, make their way into the area from the northwest late
tonight, and spend Wednesday morning crossing Southeast Texas. By
the time the storms reach our area, they should have grown upscale
into a linear feature, which likely makes straight line winds in
small bowing segments of the line a prime threat. However, given
that we are in one of those `oh so lovely` low CAPE-high shear
environments, fueled by a strong discrepancy between strong
surface inflow and a 60 knot (or higher!) low level jet, we`ll
also have to be on the lookout for brief tornadoes developing in
locations of cells that become exposed more to that shear vector.
I don`t expect to see an event that matches our last severe event,
but there is enough threat to stay cognizant of it. It`ll be a
good idea to make sure you go to bed Tuesday night with multiple
ways of receiving weather warnings able to rouse you.

The forecast on this weather has stayed pretty stable over the
last few days, so expectations aren`t really any different from
what has been discussed in previous days, and my thinking is
pretty close to what is laid out in the Day 2/3 severe weather
outlook from SPC as well. The most dangerous threat will likely be
to our north and east, with a lower threat in the northern and
eastern portions of our forecast area, decreasing towards and down
the Gulf coast. If I had to pick a most likely area for severe
weather in this area of responsibility, I`d focus up in the
northeastern corner of the area beyond Lake Livingston in Houston,
Trinity, and Polk counties on Wednesday morning as the nocturnal
surface layer recouples with the deeper atmospheric column.

After that, things should come to an end pretty rapidly as the
redeveloping line of storms marches quickly into the lower
Mississippi Valley leaving behind a sunny sky in its wake. Since
I`m expecting the storms to outpace the front itself, this will
likely give us a period Wednesday afternoon in which the sky is
sunny, winds have become westerly, but the front and its
attendant cooler airmass aren`t quite here yet. This would
definitely not be the first time I`ve seen Galveston set a record
high because of this setup. Because of that, I continue to shoot
above the NBM forecast for highs on Wednesday. I blended with the
75th percentile so the end result is somewhere in between, as the
75th percentile values explicitly are quite warm, and too high
considering we should have clouds and at least some rainfall
preceding it. Still, this means I have highs in the mid 80s in the
coastal plain and even nudging 90 degrees down in the southwest
where we have the least chance of seeing widespread wetting
rainfall.

The front should move through shortly after to cut down those
temps though, so after that last gasp of heat in the afternoon, I
drive temps down into the 40s and 50s by Thursday morning. This
should give us a cooler couple of days, but with onshore flow
expected to return by Friday, low level moisture should quickly
boost humidity and raise the overnight temperature floor, putting
an end to a very brief cooldown.

Another upper trough looks to swing through this weekend, which
will push a weaker, reinforcing front across the region complete
with another round of showers and perhaps some embedded
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. While not as vigorous as
the midweek front, it will give us another modest cooldown for the
rest of the week. How modest? Forecast temps are pretty close to
seasonal averages at the end of the forecast period.


.MARINE...

Onshore winds are expected to continue increasing along with
building seas through the first half of the week ahead of a
frontal passage on Wednesday. Winds early this morning are high
enough to require caution flags on the Gulf tonight, as we often
see wind speeds bump up modestly at night. And though they may
briefly lull enough to bring down the caution this afternoon, by
tonight or Tuesday, a small craft advisory will be needed for at
least a portion of the coastal waters. A fast moving line of
storms is set to enter Southeast Texas very late Tuesday night,
and cross the marine areas Wednesday morning ahead of and along
the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 83 65 83 64 84 / 0 10 10 80 50
Houston (IAH) 82 66 83 66 85 / 0 10 0 40 80
Galveston (GLS) 75 66 75 68 81 / 0 10 10 10 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lenninger
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Lenninger
MARINE...Luchs
Stratton20
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Im really not concerned with the severe threat on wednesday, just expecting some general thunderstorms, maybe an isolated atrong storm
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 11:18 am Im really not concerned with the severe threat on wednesday, just expecting some general thunderstorms, maybe an isolated atrong storm
Yeah. At this point, I am hoping for 0.5-1 inch of rain out of this. I need some rain to water in some fertilizer now that everything is finally budding. I have daffodils that are just now blooming! Normally, they bloom around Valentine's Day.
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Texaspirate11
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HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 291120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings early this morning are expected to lift
during the day with a SCT/BKN VFR deck this afternoon. Increasing
and gusty S winds can be expected today and on into tonight with
MVFR ceilings returning after 00Z. Have VCSH entering the area
(CLL/UTS) first tonight then area wide toward 12Z. Will evaluate
new models this morning for possible inclusion of VCTS/TSRA. Rapid
clearing anticipated from W to E during the morning hours tomorrow.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface high pressure across the eastern Gulf waters and surface low
pressure deepening to the lee of the Rockies today will bring a tightening
pressure gradient and increasing south winds to our area. A Wind Advisory
will be in effect for mainly western and coastal locations beginning
at 10 AM this morning and continuing into and through the nighttime
hours tonight when a strong low level jet will be setting up. Look for
inland high temperatures to be mainly in the low to mid 80s under partly
to mostly cloudy skies. Increasing clouds tonight along with increasing
rain chances are still expected as the dryline/prefrontal trof moves
into the area from the west later tonight and on through tomorrow morning.
Low temperatures should remain in a mid 60s to low 70s range. Mainly
showers and some isolated thunderstorms are anticipated, and limited
instability is expected to keep the most significant a majority of strong/severe
thunderstorms just outside our area. Rapid clearing from west to east
can be expected to develop behind this activity with sunny skies anticipated
for a majority of the area in the afternoon. A dry west wind in combination
with falling relative humidities will bring an increasing fire risk
to portions of the area (see the Fire Weather section below). This flow
could boost temperatures into a mid to upper 80 range (maybe even a
90 here and there?) for a large part of the area, especially for locations
that receive minimal rainfall amounts. Galveston`s high temperature
record on Wednesday (3/30) of 85 degrees set in 1879 might be in jeopardy
of being tied or broken. The system`s cold front will swing into and
eventually through the area late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening, and look for a much cooler night Wednesday night with lows
ranging from the mid to upper 40s inland to mid to upper 50s coast.

42

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

High pressure will fill in behind Wednesday`s frontal passage along
with northerly winds. Therefore, highs will reach the mid to upper
70s with the exception of our southwestern counties which will still
warm to the upper 80s. It will also be noticeably drier with
relative humidity getting as low as 25-35% on Thursday afternoon. A
weak upper level shortwave sweeping through could bring some upper
level clouds across Southeast Texas, but for the most part it`ll be
a warm and sunny day.

High pressure begins to push to the east on Friday and winds will
slowly veer to east and eventually the southeast by Saturday. Cloud
cover also begins to gradually increase from the south on Friday and
push further inland as a weak warm front offshore begins to push
towards the Gulf Coast. By Saturday, this weak frontal boundary gets
invigorated by an upper level shortwave and its surface cold front,
which should bring upwards of a quarter of an inch of rain for our
area. Afterwards, high pressure builds in on Sunday, but global
models start to diverge early next week regarding the timing for our
next chance of rain as a few upper level shortwaves embedded in
primarily zonal flow aloft help kick up a few afternoon showers.

Regarding temperatures, daytime highs still range in the upper 70s
to low 80s from Friday through early next week with Saturday being
the warmest and most humid day thanks to the warm front. Overnight
lows gradually climb from the upper 40s to mid 50s on Thursday night
to the 60s by Monday.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Fresh to strong onshore winds are expected today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect starting at 7AM this morning until at least 1 PM Wednesday
afternoon. Seas will build quickly and reach at least 8 feet by
midnight tonight for our offshore waters. Gusts could are expected
to occasionally reach near 35 knots this afternoon as well. With
ample onshore flow, there is an increased risk for rip currents
today, so beachgoers should practice proper beach safety tips such
as swimming near manned lifeguard stations and avoiding swimming
near jetties. The cold front should pass through our coastal waters
by Wednesday afternoon and offshore winds will fill in behind the
frontal passage shortly before midnight tomorrow. Winds become
northwesterly and westerly through Saturday until a warm front
draped across the Gulf pushes north and onshore through our coastal
waters.

Lenninger

FIRE WEATHER...

Wednesday afternoon could have increasing fire weather risks (lowering
relative humidities of 15 to 25% along with breezy west winds as high
as 15 to 20 mph and gusty). If the Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning rainfall amounts are limited where these humidity and wind
conditions set up, critical fire weather conditions can be expected.
A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect from Wednesday afternoon through
early Wednesday evening for areas near and to the south of a line from
the Brenham area to the Houston area to the Galveston area, especially
for locations closer to the Jackson-Matagorda-Wharton county area. The
Fire Weather Watch might need to be upgraded to a Fire Weather Warning.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 67 84 47 75 / 0 90 80 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 68 86 51 77 / 0 70 90 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 69 83 60 75 / 0 60 90 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington...
Wharton.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
the following zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...
Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...
Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...
Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...
Madison...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...
Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...
Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20
to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20
to 60 NM.

&&

$$
Cromagnum
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Okay, let's get some cool fronts back in the mix before the 6 month furnace sets in.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 291734
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1234 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings conditions are expected
this afternoon along with gusty southerly winds. Breezy to gusty
winds will continue through the night as pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the next FROPA. Some LLWS between 1400-2000 ft
around 35 to 45 knots will be possible around KUTS late tonight. The
front should move through the northwestern terminals (KCLL/KUTS)
by early Wed morning and the rest of the terminals through the
morning hours. MVFR ceilings are expected as the front moves
through, with VFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 66 84 47 75 48 / 70 90 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 86 51 77 51 / 40 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 82 60 73 62 / 20 60 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the following zones:
Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Wednesday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

AVIATION...05
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DoctorMu
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:51 pm HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Hopefully, we escape night time long tacking cells this week!

Image


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight from the
lower Missouri Valley region to central Texas. Damaging gusts,
severe hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20Z Update...
Convection should initiate across parts of south-central KS near the
triple point around 22-00Z. Increasing but still relatively modest
low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong
deep-layer shear should support organized thunderstorms across this
region. Severe hail and damaging winds will be a threat with any
supercells that can develop and spread into eastern KS/western MO
and vicinity this evening. There will also be a window during the
mid to late evening for a few tornadoes as low-level shear increases
with a strengthening low-level jet, but before the boundary layer
stabilizes. Have expanded the 5% tornado area a little to account
for this potential. Also nudged severe probabilities westward
slightly in western OK to where recent high-resolution guidance
suggests storms may initiate along the dryline by 01-02Z.

Across northeast NE/northwest IA and vicinity, have compressed
severe hail probabilities to where destabilization appears most
likely to occur by later this evening. The northward extent of the
severe threat should quickly wane as convection moves northeastward
into a less unstable airmass.

Thunderstorms are still expected to develop mainly after 00Z this
evening across parts of west/central TX as the cap along the dryline
slowly erodes and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough
overspreads this region. Damaging winds should be the main threat as
convection quickly grows upscale, but some large hail may occur
within the first few hours of convective initiation given the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk
shear.

..Gleason.. 03/29/2022
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don
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Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:51 pm HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Very informative, they even show camera footage of the tornado in Brazoria County.
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jasons2k
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Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:54 pm Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.
I’ve never expected much from this event. Maybe one or two tenths. I’ll take it.
Cromagnum
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Dixie Alley looks primed to get beat up on all over again.
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djmike
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So far looks like a thin line of light showers to move through, hopefully nothing dangerous for SETX. Of course things can change and will bare watching.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Doesn't look like much at all happening. So much for the rain.
Iceresistance
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I had a really close call last night with a Tornado-Warned Storm that had the Mesocyclone that missed my house by less than a mile, I was woken up by my Grandmother at 11:38 PM to it, she said that it was "Just another storm with a LOT of Lightning & Thunder". But then, "The wind started to pick up & it was strange".
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tireman4
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Raining here in the Gulfgate area of Houston...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.AVIATION...
SHRA and possible TSRA will move to the E across SE TX early this morning
with mainly MVFR ceilings. Lower ceilings and visibilities can be expected
in/around the stronger SHRA/TSRA activity. Gusty S winds will shift
to the W behind the rains as skies clear out, and winds will weaken
later in the afternoon. Lighter winds can be expected this evening and
on into the overnight hours. Quiet tomorrow morning with N to NE winds
at 5 to 10 knots.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms that have developed ahead of a cold front
are working their way eastward and will be entering our area from the
west before sunrise. Instability is quite limited, but there remains some
potential for possible strong or severe development. The higher risk areas
are across our very far northern counties and locations off to our north
and east. Strong/gusty south to southeast winds remain in place across much
of Southeast Texas early this morning with the highest gusts over the last
several hours reaching 40 to almost 50 mph! This flow has helped to keep
overnight lows so far in the 70s across the entire area, and no cooling is
anticipated before sunrise. These warm lows would normally tie or break
record high minimum temperatures for today, but cooler readings will move
into the area this evening in the wake of the passage of a cold front.
Before the front`s arrival, expect the showers and possible thunderstorms
to sweep eastward across the area this morning. Rapid clearing/drying and
warmer temperatures can be expected this afternoon as winds shift to the west
(winds will remain on the gusty side but values are expected to be below wind
advisory criteria), and much lower humidities in combination with the gusty
west winds will support rapid fire growth potential (see the Fire Weather
Section below for details). Look for high temperatures this afternoon in the
80s for much of the area, and the City of Galveston might flirt with near
record values (today`s record high is 85 degrees set way back in 1879).

The passage of the cold front will bring our temperatures back down to the
cool side tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s inland to the
mid to upper 50s at the coast. The end of the month (Thursday) and Thursday
night will remain on the quiet side with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in
the 40s/50s.

42

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure begins to slide east on Friday, ushering in easterly
flow. Temps climb into the low 80s and overnight lows dip into the
mid 50s except south of I-10 where some low level cloud cover will
only let temps reach the low 60s overnight. By Saturday, a warm
front draped across the Gulf will push north and inland on Saturday.
Despite plenty of cloud cover across our CWA, temps and dewpoints
will climb due to deep gulf moisture advection. Therefore, temps
will reach the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and overnight lows will
only cool down to near 60. Late Sunday through Monday, global models
hint at a small upper level shortwave pushing through the Southern
Plains and bringing some spotty showers across our area. However, it
looks like the next best chance for rain will be Monday evening
through Tuesday afternoon as a deeper trough pushes through Texas.
This pushes out by Wednesday and high pressure quickly fills in
behind it. Regarding temperatures, Southeast Texas will hover in the
mid to upper 80s from Sunday onwards while overnight lows stay in
the 60s.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Strong southerly winds will continue throughout most of the morning
and afternoon ahead of a cold front passing through. Therefore, all
of our coastal waters are under a Small Craft Advisory through 1PM
until winds subside in our bays. A mix of Advisory level winds/seas
remain for our offshore waters through the late evening. With strong
onshore flow today, our rip current risk will be high and therefore
a rip current statement is in effect through 7PM tonight. Regarding
rain chances, some showers and storms are possible around sunrise
this morning through early afternoon as the cold front moves out of
our area by 1PM. Afterwards, we can expect northerly flow through
the overnight hours tonight and then northeasterly to easterly flow
through Friday evening.

Lenninger

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon through
early this evening due to an increasing fire weather risk
(lowering relative humidities of 15 to 25% along with breezy
west winds as high as 15 to 20 mph and gusty). This warning
replaces the Fire Weather Watch and includes several counties
to the north (including Madison County where a burn ban is
currently in effect). If today`s rainfall amounts (from the
overnight hours through this morning) end up on the low side
where these humidity and wind conditions set up, critical fire
weather conditions can be expected. The Warning will be in
effect for areas near and to the west of a line from the
Madisonville area to the Houston area to the Galveston area,
especially for locations closer to the Jackson-Matagorda-Wharton
county area. If humidities and winds materialize as expected,
any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.

42

CLIMATE...

The low temperature for the City of Houston yesterday (March 29th)
of 71 degrees tied the old record high minimum temperatures of 71
degrees last set in 2007.

On average, the City of Houston normally does not have their first
morning low of 71 degrees until May 27th.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 47 75 49 81 / 90 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 51 78 52 80 / 80 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 61 73 63 73 / 60 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
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tireman4
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It will be a bumpy ride for our neighbors to the East.
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