March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What shall it bring? Cold? Warmth? Mixed bag of interesting weather?
mcheer23
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Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
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walsean1
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I not going to say no way that pans out but that is not likely the model run comes true this far out but I have seen some long range forecast driving cold air to our region.
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jasons2k
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mcheer23 wrote: Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:07 am Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
Yeah, that ain’t gonna happen!! It’s gonna be sunny and in the 70’s. Just goes to show how inaccurate models can be in the long range!!
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jasons2k
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This was posted in the February thread but it probably belongs here…

Spring has arrived folks. Time to get your planting on. This was posted by pro-met Jeff Royed AKA the Woodlands Weather Dude.
2/28/2022 Are We Done With Freezing Temperatures?
Lately, I have been getting questions on whether we are done with freezing temperatures in Montgomery County. In this post, I will explore that possibility from a numerical weather model probabilistic perspective and then also from a statistical perspective—based on the area’s weather history or climatology.

The easy answer to this question is an emphatic “no” as a good portion of the area may see temperatures fall near or slightly below freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Well that would make this a very short post if I didn’t pursue this further. The good news is that once we get past Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures here slowly climb and by Friday morning, we should see temperatures get close to normal early March levels. Queue the pine pollen!

By Friday, we should see the southeast winds hook up with the Gulf of Mexico and that means we will see rising humidity and warmer nighttime temperatures. In other words, time to plant your warm season garden—tomatoes, beans, cucumbers etc. But are we done with freezing weather for the season? Taking a look at over 100 different model simulations from the American, European and Canadian model suites over the next 15 days, they all seem to be sniffing out another cold front by the end of next week or around the 11th or 12th of March—give or take a day. Currently, I am only seeing less than 5% of the model simulations showing temperatures near or below freezing. In fact most of the simulations show low temperatures in the upper 40s. I like those odds!

Again, these ensemble model runs only go out to March 14th and to be honest with you, the forecast skill really starts falling off rapidly after around 11-12 days into the future. So there is some uncertainty and even the current forecast for late next week can trend colder here. So what about the second half of the month of March? Or even April? Unfortunately, the science is just not yet good enough to know for sure. However, we can look back at 25 years of history at Conroe’s Montgomery County Airport (image below). Based on our past history or climate, there is around a 30% chance of seeing a freeze in Montgomery County from March 15th or later. By the time we get to April, these odds fall to 12%. Our last freeze in April was just three years ago on April 2. Worth noting, historically, all of our freezes here after around March 11th have been very marginal or “light” freezes, which means we should probably be able to get by with some freeze protection.

So in summary, based on the present forecast, along with statistical probabilities, once we get past the next couple of days, odds would suggest that the area will be done with encountering freezes. However, climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. And as we found out over the past few days, we don’t always like what we get. -WWD
Stratton20
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I dont believe wintwr is over just yet, I think our NW counties including my area still have 1-3 more freezes left, not looking forward to the digusting warm weather ahead🤮
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jasons2k
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Jeff’s post was specific to Montgomery County.
I highly doubt the Houston metro area sees another freeze until fall.
Yes, spring is here (no more freezes) but remember spring is not summer; it is a season of transition so of course we will get some more cold fronts and cold snaps.
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Ill take more cold fronts over another unbearable summer thats on the horizon
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jasons2k
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Just made a quick run to the store. Everybody must have had cabin fever and now Spring fever because I saw more people out jogging, walking, riding bikes, & walking dogs than I’ve seen in a good while. It’s a wonderful, glorious thing - glorious indeed!! 🌞🌼🌴🍀🌿🌱
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Ptarmigan
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mcheer23 wrote: Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:07 am Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
That forecast model is not likely to pan out. :lol:
869MB
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The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
Cpv17
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869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface high pressure over the area will slowly migrate eastward
Wednesday. Weak mid level disturbances riding over weak ridging
aloft will bring variable amounts of cloud cover thru the period
but moisture availability much too low for rain. May see some
really patchy, shallow ground fog try to develop tonight west of
Highway 288 & south of Interstate 69. Maybe a bit more coverage
west of the metro area up to about Interstate 10 Wednesday night
with the return of light se winds & slightly higher dewpoints. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

The dry/quiet pattern of late is expected to undergo changes as
the deep ridge in place over SE TX begins to shift east and the
return of onshore winds helps to increase temperatures and low-
level moisture across the area. We`ll likely end this work week
with a decent warming trend with highs Thurs/Fri in the mid and
upper 70s and then into the lower 80s by Sat/Sun. Additionally,
favorable conditions for patchy fog are expected to start along
our SW counties/Matagorda Bay early Thurs morning...then slowly
spreading up the coast to include Galveston Bay for Fri morning.

A series of strong/well-defined shortwaves moving downstream a-
long the main upper trough over the western U.S. are progged to
help weaken the upper ridge in place here over the weekend. The
tightening gradient (and subsequent increased onshore flow) may
be enough to produce some isolated WAA-type showers at/near the
coast as early as late Fri night/early Sat morning. This should
then evolve into a more summer-like pattern of mainly scattered
daytime/afternoon activity (along the seabreeze or perhaps weak
embedded disturbances in the SW flow aloft) through the weekend.
An increasingly positive tilt of this main longwave trough axis
(per global models) by the end of the weekend does hint that we
could see better chances for the passage of a cold front by Mon
or so. However, there are also some indications that this front
will stall over the area and help keep chance PoPs in the fore-
cast for the end of this period. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Light and generally variable winds will prevail across the Upper
TX coast today/tonight as high pressure remains over the region.
As this high begins to shift east, winds will be shifting to the
east by Weds/Weds night. Onshore winds are set to return by Thur
and are expected to strengthen starting Fri on through the week-
end in response to the next storm system deepening/moving across
the Southern Plains. Caution and/or Advisory flags may be needed
as early as Fri night and remaining in place through the weekend.
41

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR with light winds & variable high cloudiness. May see some patchy
shallow ground fog try to develop around LBX late tonight. If so,
it`ll burn off fairly quickly after sunrise Wed. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 43 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 44 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 51 66 55 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Stratton20
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Winter may not be over just yet, models are indicating we may see one final shot or arctic air around late next week
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DoctorMu
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Except for on and off the last couple of weeks, it's been a pretty good La Nina winter with some freezes, more sunshine than normal, etc.

Not surprisingly, models differ markedly on the outlook after this week. CMC has a cold front around the 7th, then cooler for a week. GFS runs warm.

Euro is in agreement with CMC blasting a front through on Mar 7-8 and another front on the 11th. Maybe a frost or two. "Aggie tradition" has cool weather during the first half of spring break.

Fall 2000, Winter 2021, Spring and Summer 2021 were probably the coolest 12 month span since we moved to CLL. More in store, or return to that very warm Fall 2021??
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:13 am
869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.

It's a "severe drought" every summer in CLL! :lol:

Horticulture is not for the faint of heart in the Brazos Valley.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:13 am
869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.

It's a "severe drought" every summer in CLL! :lol:

Horticulture is not for the faint of heart in the Brazos Valley.
I heard the latest CFSv2 forecast has a La Niña continuing through the summer and into next winter.
Stratton20
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Looks like we may have one more shot of arctic air coming next week as it has been showing up in the models for a while now with support from the GEFS, its going to be modified since its march but it looks like this arctic blast could be originating from the arctic/ siberia area
mcheer23
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:59 pm Looks like we may have one more shot of arctic air coming next week as it has been showing up in the models for a while now with support from the GEFS, its going to be modified since its march but it looks like this arctic blast could be originating from the arctic/ siberia area
As I said last Thursday in the February thread...."around March 10th..just maybe" ;) ;)
kyzsl51
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Lol even if its modified ill savor the cooler weather while I can! We lost a month in December.
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