March 2022

[869MB]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
815 PM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022

...NWS Damage Survey for 03/21/22 - 03/22/22 Tornado Event
.Beasley...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.8185 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 30.0 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 4
Start Date: 03/22/2022
Start Time: 05:35 AM CDT
Start Location: 3 SSE East Bernard / Fort Bend County /
TX
Start Lat/Lon: 29.4886 / -96.0397
End Date: 03/22/2022
End Time: 05:37 AM CDT
End Location: 3 SE East Bernard N Trinity
End Lat/Lon: 29.4936 / -96.0273

Survey Summary:
Brief small tornado produced a path of damage that included the
flipping of an RV home, the uprooting of a few large trees and
severe damage to another home. There were 4 injuries to the
occupants of the RV home. Damage was mainly EF0 but rated a
minimal EF1 based on damage to the second property.
&&
EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:
EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

...Unofficial March 21-22 storm survey information...
- EF-1 tornado in Madisonville (Madison County).
- EF-2 tornado (approximately 125 mph winds) in Houston County.
Occasional EF-2 damage stretched from the Mapleton area (near the
intersection of Highway 21 and FM 3275) to near the intersection of
Highway 21 and County Road 3052 to the west and northwest sides of
Crockett. There were three serious injuries and additional minor
injuries with this tornado.
- EF-0 tornado in the Snook area (Burleson County).
- EF-0 tornado between College Station and Snook (Burleson County)
near FM 60 and Reveille Road intersection.
- EF-1 tornado in the Saxon Road area (eastern Brazos County).
This is roughly 5 miles southeast of Kurten or 6 miles west
southwest of Iola.
- EF-0 tornado in Danbury.

[Katdaddy]

Prayers as a large wedge tornado moves across E New Orleans now.

[Stratton20]

Absolutely heart breaking situation in new orleans tonight, seeing footage of a violent and large tornado that destroyed many homes, I would not be surprised at all to see this given an ef-3 or maybe ef-4 rating tommorow, absolutely devastating

[DoctorMu]

That was a massive tornado that moved over the West Bank, across the Mississippi through NOLA proper, though the Ninth Ward and toward Slidell.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/tor ... deep-south

https://twitter.com/LuluWalcott1/status ... 7rTtWuZIpw

https://twitter.com/NewshubNZ/status/15 ... 7rTtWuZIpw


https://twitter.com/WUTangKids/status/1 ... 7rTtWuZIpw

[Cromagnum]

Wind is ripping outside right now.

[DoctorMu]

Incredible damage in NOLA metro area from yesterday's tornado.

https://twitter.com/bclemms/status/1506 ... 7rTtWuZIpw

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 231105
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
605 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Flight conditions much improved over this time 24 hours ago. VFR
throughout, with winds generally between west and north,
increasing later this morning and becoming modestly gusty this
afternoon, then decreasing again tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022/...

.DISCUSSION...

Fair weather dominates the forecast as high pressure prevails for
much of the period. Look for a cooler and dry couple of days in
the wake of yesterday`s cold front, and though a weak front looks
to move through tomorrow, it should have little impact on our
sensible weather.

From there, we can expect a warming trend through the weekend and
into early next week, until our next chances for rain start to
sneak back into the forecast Tuesday night.


.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Gusty northwest winds, the last vestige of yesterday`s frontal
passage, took until deep into the evening to subside. However, now
in the early morning hours, we are finally seeing lighter wind
speeds more typical of the overnight period. We can expect today
to look nothing like yesterday morning, but much like yesterday
afternoon once the sky cleared out. The main difference will be in
the strength of the winds, which will be considerably lower than
yesterday afternoon, particularly farther west and inland. Over
the Gulf waters, some more elevated winds are on the table, as the
pressure gradient is likely to be tighter closer to the exiting
front.

Temperatures today look to take a bit of a split. Farther inland,
afternoon highs should be similar to, and likely a little bit
warmer than yesterday as the front cut temperatures down well
before it could get too warm. Near the coast, today should be
a good 5-10 degrees cooler, as temps were able to peak in the low
to mid 70s yesterday before the front chopped them down. Today,
we`re just full out in the cooler airmass. This airmass is also
pretty dry. This is pleasant for most, but does introduce some
need to think about fire weather, which there are more details
about below.

Lows tonight should be pretty close to or a little cooler than
what we`ll fall to in the next few hours, as we`ll get relatively
light winds and a clear sky, pretty ideal for radiational cooling.
But, these same features should allow us to warm up pretty
effectively again tomorrow, even in spite of a weak, secondary
front reinforcing northwest winds. As a result, we should be
starting a warming trend tomorrow that will continue into the long
term part of the forecast.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

Benign weather is on tap for this weekend, with ridging setting
in over the region on Friday. A surface high off the coast of
Mexico will usher in light west/southwesterly winds during the
day, becoming southerly as the surface high tracks to the
northeast. The return of onshore flow will funnel warm, moist Gulf
air into SE Texas, initiating a warming trend through the
weekend. Sunny skies on Friday will provide decent heating,
allowing highs to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Increasing moisture from onshore flow will seek to limit cooling
overnight, with lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

On Saturday, winds will become southeasterly as the surface high
continues northeast into the southeastern CONUS. Clear skies will
continue to usher sunny weather, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s. Onshore flow will continue to funnel more moisture into
SE Texas, further limiting cooling during the night. Lows will be
in the lower 50s to upper 60s.

Pleasant weather should continue through the weekend and into next
week. Onshore flow will strengthen on Sunday as the pressure
gradient tightens ahead of a surface low over the Central Rockies.
Isentropic uplift and ample moisture will allow for cloudy skies to
build across the region by Monday afternoon, slowing the warming
trend through Wednesday. The aforementioned surface low will slide
eastward through the Central Plains on Thursday, bringing another
cold front into our area.


.MARINE...

Caution and Advisory flags remain in effect until this afternoon,
with winds, and subsequently seas, slowly diminishing as high
pressure builds over the region. Moderate southwesterly flow will
develop overnight as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a weak
cold front. This weak cold front will push through the waters
Thursday night, though minimal impacts are expected from its
passage. Light NW winds will set in late Thursday night, becoming
southerly Friday evening with the arrival of high pressure. Onshore
flow will continue into the weekend, slowly strengthening into next
week ahead of another cold front next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry post-frontal airmass is working its way into the region.
Despite cooler temperatures, look for RH to drop to around or
below 30 percent across most of the area. Out in the far west, min
RH values in the mid-20s look likely. Now, with all that said,
the dry air will be mitigated by light to moderate winds at most,
and fuel conditions from yesterday`s rainfall.

Of course, with several days of no rain expected and several dry
days ahead, we`ll have to monitor how conditions change the fire
environment. Winds should be a little stronger on Thursday with a
weak front (so weak, Thursday afternoon should be warmer in spite
of the `cold` front), and at least the lighter fuels will start to
see the drying impact of the stretch of days with low RH.
Fortunately, overnight recovery still looks alright to help out
here, though not reaching the typical near-saturation levels we
often see. ERC values for the vast majority of the area look to
remain near or below median values, which should continue to
mitigate fire potential.

Fuels will continue to slowly dry as we head into the end of the
week with further days of dry air and warming temperatures. We`ll
have to keep our eyes on the potential heading into Friday and
perhaps even Saturday as TFS forecast graphics show heavier fuels
beginning to noticeably respond to the drier conditions.
Onshore flow should return this weekend though, which will start a
trend of increasing humidity for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 67 40 70 40 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 45 70 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 57 70 56 73 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03
FIRE WEATHER...Luchs

[Iceresistance]

Mike Ventrice has a concerning forecast next week
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

[captainbarbossa19]

Mike Ventrice has a concerning forecast next week
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

Yep. Severe weather season is really picking up now. Models are hinting at the strong possibility of thunderstorms again mid next week for our area. I am all for it as long as no severe weather.

[Stratton20]

Agreed, rain is fine, but hoping for no severe weather if that system comes to fruition, ofc its far out but worth watching, but man see images from the damage in eastern parts of new orleans is just absolutely heartbreaking

[Cpv17]

Agreed, rain is fine, but hoping for no severe weather if that system comes to fruition, ofc its far out but worth watching, but man see images from the damage in eastern parts of new orleans is just absolutely heartbreaking

I’m fine with severe weather as long as there’s no fatalities or anything other than very minor damage.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I mean its cool but i only like it if its in a non populated are, though watching the lightning display from those supercells was amazing

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I mean its cool but i only like it if its in a non populated are, though watching the lightning display from those supercells was amazing

I like experiencing it. Gives me a big adrenaline rush.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I definitely get that, it is pretty cool watching severe thunderstorms in action, just not when they are over populated areas

[Iceresistance]

Cpv17 I definitely get that, it is pretty cool watching severe thunderstorms in action, just not when they are over populated areas

Yes, the storms drive me crazy, especially the Lightning

[Iceresistance]

This is just wild

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 251652
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022


.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

No issues for this package even with high pressure moving out to
the east. Light W to NW winds are expected become light/variable
overnight and then shift to the S and SE tomorrow. Will maintain
VFR for almost all sites with only a brief mention of patchy fog
at LBX early tomorrow morning. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 402 AM CDT Fri Mar 25 2022/...

SHORT TERM [Today Through Saturday Night]...

Reinforcing cold air, light winds, and clear skies during the
overnight hours will cool temperatures down into the low 40s by
sunrise and mid 30s for our northernmost counties. High pressure
will remain overhead, so we can expect mostly clear skies and
daytime highs to reach the low 80s inland and upper 70s along the
coast. Dry air will still be in place as RH dips into the teens
and low 20s today, so elevated fire weather conditions still
remain, but wind and wind gusts should be substantially lower than
we saw yesterday. Tonight will be fairly similar to what we`ve
seen the past few days. Clear skies will lead to efficient cooling
as temps drop into the upper 40s north of I-10 and the Houston
Metro area and the low 50s elsewhere. Some guidance is hinting at
patchy fog for our southwestern counties as temps approach the
dewpoint, but should fog develop, it`ll dissipate after sunrise.

By tomorrow, high pressure will begin to slowly push east and
gentle to moderate onshore flow gradually resumes by mid
afternoon. Daytime high creeps up a few degrees and into the low
to mid 80s while overnight lows reach the mid 50s. Confidence is
higher for fog development tomorrow night as dewpoints climb due
to the return of onshore flow.

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Sunday opens with a surface high continuing to take shape over the
Gulf of Mexico, which means the onshore winds that started to emerge
earlier in the weekend should become better established.
Ridging will be in place in the lower atmosphere, while the mid-
level pattern is still in a transition as the slow-moving upper
trough finally moves east and gives way to a ridge.

As stacked ridging becomes more the dominant feature over the
Northwest Gulf, high temperatures in the 80s should become more
widespread, with the warm spots reaching into the middle 80s each
day in the first half of next week. The NBM distribution suggests
even a 1-in-5 to 1-in-4 chance of seeing some 90 degree highs well
inland. I`m not ready to go that far with a deterministic forecast
yet - much of the guidance suggests some very subtle shortwave
troughs rippling through this mid-level ridge. And while it`s not
going to bring rain chances, it could increase cloudiness just
enough to keep temps from really cranking up. Buuuutttt...if that
doesn`t materialize and the ridge is more dominant than
modeled...yeah, we could definitely push 90 in the hot spots.

Meanwhile, for overnight lows, as the pressure gradient tightens
between the Gulf high and a developing surface low Monday night when
the next upper trough begins to drop off the Rockies, we`ll see
onshore winds strengthen through the early week. This will boost
humidity, raising the temperature floor and eventually we`ll likely
see nocturnal stratus develop as the humid, less dense Gulf air
rides up over the sable nocturnal boundary layer. Lows Sunday
morning will already show this upward trend with most of the area in
the 50s (perhaps a few 40s in Houston County, and around 60 degrees
right on the Gulf). But we`ll see that upward trend continue, with
widespread lows higher than 60 in place by Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

Finally, as we head into the midweek, we`ll see the impact of the
aforementioned upper trough and its accompanying surface low. Very
strong consensus in the guidance that we`ll see a midweek cold
front, and another shot at showers and storms ahead of and along the
boundary. Will we see another round of severe weather? Well, it`s
certainly on the table, but right now signs are mixed on the level
of the threat. We`ll have a strong wind profile both at low levels
(60 knot winds at 850 mb!) and aloft, along with ample boundary
layer moisture from the stout onshore low level flow.

Once question will be timing - some guidance brings a pre-frontal
trough through early on Wednesday morning, giving us our best
surface convergence before instability has a chance to build, and
spoiling potential when the front itself rolls through. In fact, our
peak SBCAPE values in the NBM right now don`t even really exceed 500
J/Kg. But if this happens several hours later - not an unreasonable
timing slip by any means at this range - and suddenly we`re looking
at storms popping off at the diurnal peak. There may be some hint of
this in the Euro ensembles, as the EFI for the CAPE-Shear parameter
space exceeds 0.5 from Galveston Bay northeast into northwest
Louisiana. That`s not necessarily a ringing endorsement of severe
weather potential, but I`ve got to conclude that it`s at least still
on the table.

Additionally, we`ll want to keep an eye on the orientation of the
upper trough. Last night, there was a strong split between a neutral
(or even slightly negatively-tilted) trough which could be more
supportive of stronger storms, and a positively-tilted trough, which
would likely build a strong cap over all but the northeasternmost
portion of the forecast area. Tonight, it seems like things have
trended a little more towards a more cappy environment, but again,
it`s no slam dunk. This is less an evolution towards shutting the
door, and more that the guidance is in better agreement in giving
the trough more of a neutral tilt just to our east, a little too
late for severe storms here. But, just like the timing in the
surface features mentioned above, it would take very little change
in this timing to thrust us into a much more supportive environment
for stronger storms.

Given all this, it`s probably no surprise that the new SPC Day 4-8
outlook puts the main threat area well north/northwest of us on
Tuesday, scraping just northeast of us and onto the east on
Wednesday, leaving us just barely out of their 15 percent contour.
This is pretty reasonable, and also a little close for my tastes.
If the forecast is perfect, we should largely watch the strongest
storms from a distance as that outlook plays out. If the swiss
cheese lines up a little differently...anyway, no need to kick into
high gear over the severe threat at this point, but make sure to
check in with us for the latest every so often, just to see if
anything has changed.

MARINE...

Winds have become light across the waters tonight, accompanied by
falling seas as the pressure gradient across the area becomes loose.
Expect winds to be light and variable for much of the day, generally
becoming more onshore overnight into the weekend thanks to
strengthening high pressure to the east. Though light, and fairly
variable at first, the onshore flow will strengthen into early next
week. As the winds increase, seas will also build.

The pressure gradient looks to get quite tight early next week while
the surface high to the east attempts to hold tight and a new
surface low spins up in the lee of the Rockies. By Tuesday, winds
are likely to rise into SCEC territory, and perhaps above the
advisory threshold as a cold front approaches the region

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 48 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 82 49 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 75 61 74 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99
Aviation/Marine...99

[Stratton20]

Hope the next storm system stays well to the north of us, this beautiful stretch of nice weather can continue!

[DoctorMu]

Yesterday was perfect. Today is a little too warm for my taste. But at least it's dry and not humid.

Because it won't be soon enough...

[Cpv17]

Yesterday was perfect. Today is a little too warm for my taste. But at least it's dry and not humid.

Because it won't be soon enough...

I agree, although yesterday was slightly too windy for my taste but temp wise yesterday was perfect. Now today it’s the opposite lol the winds are good for me now but the temps a bit too warm. Not going to complain though!