March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:51 pm HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Hopefully, we escape night time long tacking cells this week!

Image


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight from the
lower Missouri Valley region to central Texas. Damaging gusts,
severe hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

...20Z Update...
Convection should initiate across parts of south-central KS near the
triple point around 22-00Z. Increasing but still relatively modest
low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong
deep-layer shear should support organized thunderstorms across this
region. Severe hail and damaging winds will be a threat with any
supercells that can develop and spread into eastern KS/western MO
and vicinity this evening. There will also be a window during the
mid to late evening for a few tornadoes as low-level shear increases
with a strengthening low-level jet, but before the boundary layer
stabilizes. Have expanded the 5% tornado area a little to account
for this potential. Also nudged severe probabilities westward
slightly in western OK to where recent high-resolution guidance
suggests storms may initiate along the dryline by 01-02Z.

Across northeast NE/northwest IA and vicinity, have compressed
severe hail probabilities to where destabilization appears most
likely to occur by later this evening. The northward extent of the
severe threat should quickly wane as convection moves northeastward
into a less unstable airmass.

Thunderstorms are still expected to develop mainly after 00Z this
evening across parts of west/central TX as the cap along the dryline
slowly erodes and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough
overspreads this region. Damaging winds should be the main threat as
convection quickly grows upscale, but some large hail may occur
within the first few hours of convective initiation given the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk
shear.

..Gleason.. 03/29/2022
User avatar
don
Posts: 2615
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Texaspirate11 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 9:51 pm HERE is the overview of our tornado outbreak last week
done by our HGX NWS

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/20220321-to ... 4IAcY6BKZM
Very informative, they even show camera footage of the tornado in Brazoria County.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.
Cpv17
Posts: 5293
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:54 pm Latest HRRR looks like weak sauce.
I’ve never expected much from this event. Maybe one or two tenths. I’ll take it.
Cromagnum
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Dixie Alley looks primed to get beat up on all over again.
User avatar
djmike
Posts: 1703
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 12:19 pm
Location: BEAUMONT, TX
Contact:

So far looks like a thin line of light showers to move through, hopefully nothing dangerous for SETX. Of course things can change and will bare watching.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Doesn't look like much at all happening. So much for the rain.
Iceresistance
Posts: 577
Joined: Fri Apr 30, 2021 11:48 pm
Location: Tecumseh, OK
Contact:

I had a really close call last night with a Tornado-Warned Storm that had the Mesocyclone that missed my house by less than a mile, I was woken up by my Grandmother at 11:38 PM to it, she said that it was "Just another storm with a LOT of Lightning & Thunder". But then, "The wind started to pick up & it was strange".
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Raining here in the Gulfgate area of Houston...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301120
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.AVIATION...
SHRA and possible TSRA will move to the E across SE TX early this morning
with mainly MVFR ceilings. Lower ceilings and visibilities can be expected
in/around the stronger SHRA/TSRA activity. Gusty S winds will shift
to the W behind the rains as skies clear out, and winds will weaken
later in the afternoon. Lighter winds can be expected this evening and
on into the overnight hours. Quiet tomorrow morning with N to NE winds
at 5 to 10 knots.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022/

SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Night]...

Showers and thunderstorms that have developed ahead of a cold front
are working their way eastward and will be entering our area from the
west before sunrise. Instability is quite limited, but there remains some
potential for possible strong or severe development. The higher risk areas
are across our very far northern counties and locations off to our north
and east. Strong/gusty south to southeast winds remain in place across much
of Southeast Texas early this morning with the highest gusts over the last
several hours reaching 40 to almost 50 mph! This flow has helped to keep
overnight lows so far in the 70s across the entire area, and no cooling is
anticipated before sunrise. These warm lows would normally tie or break
record high minimum temperatures for today, but cooler readings will move
into the area this evening in the wake of the passage of a cold front.
Before the front`s arrival, expect the showers and possible thunderstorms
to sweep eastward across the area this morning. Rapid clearing/drying and
warmer temperatures can be expected this afternoon as winds shift to the west
(winds will remain on the gusty side but values are expected to be below wind
advisory criteria), and much lower humidities in combination with the gusty
west winds will support rapid fire growth potential (see the Fire Weather
Section below for details). Look for high temperatures this afternoon in the
80s for much of the area, and the City of Galveston might flirt with near
record values (today`s record high is 85 degrees set way back in 1879).

The passage of the cold front will bring our temperatures back down to the
cool side tonight with lows ranging from the low to mid 40s inland to the
mid to upper 50s at the coast. The end of the month (Thursday) and Thursday
night will remain on the quiet side with highs in the 70s/80s and lows in
the 40s/50s.

42

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

High pressure begins to slide east on Friday, ushering in easterly
flow. Temps climb into the low 80s and overnight lows dip into the
mid 50s except south of I-10 where some low level cloud cover will
only let temps reach the low 60s overnight. By Saturday, a warm
front draped across the Gulf will push north and inland on Saturday.
Despite plenty of cloud cover across our CWA, temps and dewpoints
will climb due to deep gulf moisture advection. Therefore, temps
will reach the mid to upper 80s on Saturday and overnight lows will
only cool down to near 60. Late Sunday through Monday, global models
hint at a small upper level shortwave pushing through the Southern
Plains and bringing some spotty showers across our area. However, it
looks like the next best chance for rain will be Monday evening
through Tuesday afternoon as a deeper trough pushes through Texas.
This pushes out by Wednesday and high pressure quickly fills in
behind it. Regarding temperatures, Southeast Texas will hover in the
mid to upper 80s from Sunday onwards while overnight lows stay in
the 60s.

Lenninger

MARINE...

Strong southerly winds will continue throughout most of the morning
and afternoon ahead of a cold front passing through. Therefore, all
of our coastal waters are under a Small Craft Advisory through 1PM
until winds subside in our bays. A mix of Advisory level winds/seas
remain for our offshore waters through the late evening. With strong
onshore flow today, our rip current risk will be high and therefore
a rip current statement is in effect through 7PM tonight. Regarding
rain chances, some showers and storms are possible around sunrise
this morning through early afternoon as the cold front moves out of
our area by 1PM. Afterwards, we can expect northerly flow through
the overnight hours tonight and then northeasterly to easterly flow
through Friday evening.

Lenninger

FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for this afternoon through
early this evening due to an increasing fire weather risk
(lowering relative humidities of 15 to 25% along with breezy
west winds as high as 15 to 20 mph and gusty). This warning
replaces the Fire Weather Watch and includes several counties
to the north (including Madison County where a burn ban is
currently in effect). If today`s rainfall amounts (from the
overnight hours through this morning) end up on the low side
where these humidity and wind conditions set up, critical fire
weather conditions can be expected. The Warning will be in
effect for areas near and to the west of a line from the
Madisonville area to the Houston area to the Galveston area,
especially for locations closer to the Jackson-Matagorda-Wharton
county area. If humidities and winds materialize as expected,
any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.

42

CLIMATE...

The low temperature for the City of Houston yesterday (March 29th)
of 71 degrees tied the old record high minimum temperatures of 71
degrees last set in 2007.

On average, the City of Houston normally does not have their first
morning low of 71 degrees until May 27th.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 47 75 49 81 / 90 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 51 78 52 80 / 80 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 61 73 63 73 / 60 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston Island...
Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...
Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...
Washington...Wharton.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

It will be a bumpy ride for our neighbors to the East.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

From the Jackson MS. AFD..( Not here!!)

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
708 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...


DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight...

Quite an active day in store for the region. Just walk outside and
you can tell something in the weather will occur today. It has been
very warm overnight with temperatures in the lower 70s through the
night. A very potent southerly wind has prevailed with the 850mb low
level jet really kicking in tonight. Sustained winds overnight have
been 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts, even a brief near 40kt
gust at JAN.

Much of the forecast thinking remains the same. The upper trough
across the west will continue to track east and become negatively
tilted with time. As this occurs, the 990mb surface low will track
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region and deepen. The line of
storms currently ongoing over the DFW metroplex will continue to
track east through the morning hours. This line is expected to reach
the western part of our forecast are by around noon-1pm. Some of
this line may be a little broken at first before intensifying and
congealing more into a solid squall line/QLCS. This line is expected
to quickly become severe as it encounters an airmass that will reach
the low to mid 80s before it moves through. Widespread 1400-1600
J/kg of MUCAPE, 45-55kts of deep layer shear, 300-600 m2/s2 helicity
all look to be in place to organize storms and produce a potent QLCS
to move through the region today. Given the abundance of wind in
place today, widespread damaging winds up to 80mph is expected and
there remains potential for tornadoes as well, including a strong
tornado. CAM guidance still indicates less potential for discrete
storms to develop ahead of the line(which if one of these were to
occur would be more supportive to produce a strong tornado in this
environment). With sufficient mixing today, 20 degree
Temperature/dewpoint spreads would support higher LCL heights, which
could mitigate tornadogenesis but especially reduce the strong
tornado risk today. However this risk remains non-zero given the
sufficient shear and helicity in place and if a supercell were to
develop along the line then the risk for a stronger tornado would
exist. A moderate risk still is in place for the entire region.
However, it is prudent to note that with this event we are not
expecting the QLCS to produce quite the numbers of tornadoes as we
saw last week, though certainly an embedded one is possible. We are
most concerned about the damaging wind aspect of this line and this
will certainly be widespread and likely to affect a larger portion
of our population. Winds up to 80mph, in addition to the gradient
wind ahead of the line, will pose risks of downed trees and
powerlines and result in power outages.

Of additional concern is the gradient wind ahead of/outside of
thunderstorms today. As mentioned, winds are already stout this
morning and with additional mixing up to around 850mb which would
suggest tapping into gusts around 45-50kts, and increasing low level
jet, winds will only continue to get stronger ahead of the squall
line through the afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph will be
possible, but we could see some higher gusts of 55-60mph. Generally
speaking, I feel really good about the gusts nearing 55mph, but am
quite concerned about a few locations(likely more isolated than
widespread) of reaching 60mph. That being said, the gradient winds
will be as much of a concern ahead of the line and have gone ahead
and issued a High Wind Warning to account for this. Once the line
passes, winds will remain gusty but should return to gusts closer to
20-25mph through the evening into tonight. Gusts will diminish after
midnight to around 15mph.

As the line moves through the region, there could be some locally
heavy rainfall. However, given the quick movement to it and lack of
indications of any training storms, the flooding risk is of lower
concern and will continue to not mention this in the HWO or
graphics.

Hold on to your hats, folks....it will be a windy, active weather
day today! /28/
User avatar
don
Posts: 2615
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Tornado Warning
TXC201-339-301430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0022.220330T1404Z-220330T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
904 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northwestern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 930 AM CDT.

* At 904 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Pinehurst, moving east at 20 to 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
The Woodlands around 920 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


&&

LAT...LON 3021 9573 3025 9570 3021 9545 3008 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 290DEG 26KT 3022 9568

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Radar 03 30 22 9 18 am
Attachments
Radar 03 30 22 9 18 am.png
Cromagnum
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:42 pm
Contact:

Ok, so we got more backfilling than expected which is great. Maybe some of us can squeeze a quick quarter inch out.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2615
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC201-301530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0029.220330T1453Z-220330T1530Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
953 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 1030 AM CDT.

* At 952 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Hidden
Valley, or over Greater Greenspoint, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Galena Park, Jacinto City, Midtown Houston, Cloverleaf, Downtown
Houston, Northside / Northline, Second Ward, Greater Greenspoint,
Greater Heights, Greater Eastwood, Near Northside Houston, Greater
Fifth Ward, Aldine, Greater Third Ward, Fourth Ward, Channelview,
Macgregor, Neartown / Montrose, eastern Memorial Park and Golfcrest
/ Bellfort / Reveille.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4471
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning...
Attachments
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 03 30 22 .png
Cpv17
Posts: 5293
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Well that was more than I expected.
mcheer23
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 535
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:15 am
Location: Missouri City/ Sugar Land
Contact:

Next system moves through next Tuesday.... Latest GFS is more aggressive with this system around Houston.
High temps next Wednesday could be near 90...
TexasBreeze
Posts: 942
Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
Location: NW Houston, TX
Contact:

Maybe if we can keep up this pattern of rain once a week we will be ok, but things do change. Could be the usual Easter week cool air setup before fronts begin stalling and retreating north. Coming soon!
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5396
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

.49”

After what I saw last night I’ll gladly take it!
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 6 guests