March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3
Stratton20
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Captainbarbossa19 plus we all saw how poorly the global models handled the arctic air from last week, with the CPC issuing a moderate risk for hazardous temps for us, definitely will be interesting to see how this forecast evolves
Cpv17
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3
Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.
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jasons2k
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No need to hyperventilate just yet over losing your garden. Keep in mind by the time we reach March 15th, the normal low at IAH is 54 and the normal high is 74.

A low of 40 would be considered "much below normal" by then.
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:22 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3
Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.
Or in March 1989.
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:42 pm Captainbarbossa19 plus we all saw how poorly the global models handled the arctic air from last week, with the CPC issuing a moderate risk for hazardous temps for us, definitely will be interesting to see how this forecast evolves
Right, I do not trust the models at all. That is why I am also not buying the climate models for spring forecasts.
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captainbarbossa19
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Ptarmigan wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:28 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 5:22 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 4:31 pm It is worth noting that March has produced 20s for lows numerous times, even low 20s. For example, 1923 featured a record low of 21 at Lake Charles Regional Airport. 1922 featured a record low of 20 at Jack Brooks Regional Airport in Beaumont for the month of March. The all-time record low for Houston (IAH) is 21 for March on the 3rd in 1923 like Lake Charles. Mid-20s for lows have also been recorded for Houston (IAH) as late as March 20th in the past.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_mar

https://www.weather.gov/lch/bptnormmar3

https://www.weather.gov/lch/lchnormmar3
Check out how cold it got in early March of 2002.
Or in March 1989.
Right. Many forget the while meteorological spring starts traditionally on March 1st, winter often goes on until around the official first day of spring. I have noticed that many trees are budding later than normal this year. Also the pecan trees, which are said to tell when it's finally spring, are still very dormant where I am.
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jasons2k
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 7:33 pm Right. Many forget the while meteorological spring starts traditionally on March 1st, winter often goes on until around the official first day of spring.
I’m not sure who these “many” are you are referring to. Pro-mets and informed amateurs, like the members of this board - the folks who actually know what the meteorological spring is in the first place - are well aware we can have freezes deep into March. And the general public marks the beginning of Spring according to the lunar calendar, which will occur on March 20th, the day that every printed wall calendar has “First day of Spring” on it.

We do have to watch the system late next week/next weekend. I don’t know that we’ll hit freezing (at 2 meters) in Houston, but we could be looking at a widespread frost event, so freeze/frost protection might be needed for anyone with tender vegetation or new plantings.
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8-)
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don
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We could get a statewide winter storm with this setup if the trough digs south enough.Or if we can get a Anafront setup from isentropic lift and forcing. Air will be cold enough and deep enough to support one if the models are right.Another thing to note is the front looks to be a strong reinforcing shot of arctic air.As models show a moderate front moving in earlier in the week before the stronger front gets here.
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Last edited by don on Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
Stratton20
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Don whats the latest that we have ever had a winter storm ?
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don
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In the northern parts of southeast Texas and in central Texas there was a snowstorm in April 2007.For Houston the last time we had a winter storm in March was Today in 2014! LOL March 4th.I still remember that night there were widespread thunderstorms all night with temps hovering at freezing.
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jasons2k
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My 10-day from TWC app (model-driven) shows a low of 33 next Saturday morning. It’s gonna be a close call either way. I’m holding off on any major gardening projects until this passes. We should be in the clear after that.
Stratton20
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The latest GEFS ensembles are starting to sniff out a winter storm setup, but it appears this would be mostly a north texas event at this time, still too far out, and its unlikely too, I think the most likely scenario will be a dry frontal passage
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don wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:08 am In the northern parts of southeast Texas and in central Texas there was a snowstorm in April 2007.For Houston the last time we had a winter storm in March was Today in 2014! LOL March 4th.I still remember that night there were widespread thunderstorms all night with temps hovering at freezing.
This 2014 storm left a mess. My wife and I had a wedding date for 4-26-14 for an outdoor wedding at my parents ranch in Cat Spring just southwest of Bellville. The Ice made a huge mess in downed trees and branches all over their property. It took all of the next month going up every weekend to get them cleaned up and burned so it looked worthy of a wedding. Id pass on an ice storm like that again.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 boy do those maps look nice😁😁
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:53 am My 10-day from TWC app (model-driven) shows a low of 33 next Saturday morning. It’s gonna be a close call either way. I’m holding off on any major gardening projects until this passes. We should be in the clear after that.
They lowered it more now.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 5:02 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Mar 04, 2022 10:53 am My 10-day from TWC app (model-driven) shows a low of 33 next Saturday morning. It’s gonna be a close call either way. I’m holding off on any major gardening projects until this passes. We should be in the clear after that.
They lowered it more now.
Plant buying on hold for now in CLL.
Stratton20
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As of right now this seems likely to be a dry frontal passage with little to no precipitation as seen by the GEFS members, but of course their is still a lot of time for things to change
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