March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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March 2022

Post by tireman4 » Tue Feb 15, 2022 6:42 am

What shall it bring? Cold? Warmth? Mixed bag of interesting weather?

mcheer23
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Re: March 2022

Post by mcheer23 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:07 am

Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
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walsean1
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Re: March 2022

Post by walsean1 » Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:15 pm

I not going to say no way that pans out but that is not likely the model run comes true this far out but I have seen some long range forecast driving cold air to our region.

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Re: March 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:58 am

mcheer23 wrote:
Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:07 am
Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
Yeah, that ain’t gonna happen!! It’s gonna be sunny and in the 70’s. Just goes to show how inaccurate models can be in the long range!!

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Re: March 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:00 am

This was posted in the February thread but it probably belongs here…

Spring has arrived folks. Time to get your planting on. This was posted by pro-met Jeff Royed AKA the Woodlands Weather Dude.
2/28/2022 Are We Done With Freezing Temperatures?
Lately, I have been getting questions on whether we are done with freezing temperatures in Montgomery County. In this post, I will explore that possibility from a numerical weather model probabilistic perspective and then also from a statistical perspective—based on the area’s weather history or climatology.

The easy answer to this question is an emphatic “no” as a good portion of the area may see temperatures fall near or slightly below freezing by sunrise tomorrow. Well that would make this a very short post if I didn’t pursue this further. The good news is that once we get past Tuesday morning, we will see temperatures here slowly climb and by Friday morning, we should see temperatures get close to normal early March levels. Queue the pine pollen!

By Friday, we should see the southeast winds hook up with the Gulf of Mexico and that means we will see rising humidity and warmer nighttime temperatures. In other words, time to plant your warm season garden—tomatoes, beans, cucumbers etc. But are we done with freezing weather for the season? Taking a look at over 100 different model simulations from the American, European and Canadian model suites over the next 15 days, they all seem to be sniffing out another cold front by the end of next week or around the 11th or 12th of March—give or take a day. Currently, I am only seeing less than 5% of the model simulations showing temperatures near or below freezing. In fact most of the simulations show low temperatures in the upper 40s. I like those odds!

Again, these ensemble model runs only go out to March 14th and to be honest with you, the forecast skill really starts falling off rapidly after around 11-12 days into the future. So there is some uncertainty and even the current forecast for late next week can trend colder here. So what about the second half of the month of March? Or even April? Unfortunately, the science is just not yet good enough to know for sure. However, we can look back at 25 years of history at Conroe’s Montgomery County Airport (image below). Based on our past history or climate, there is around a 30% chance of seeing a freeze in Montgomery County from March 15th or later. By the time we get to April, these odds fall to 12%. Our last freeze in April was just three years ago on April 2. Worth noting, historically, all of our freezes here after around March 11th have been very marginal or “light” freezes, which means we should probably be able to get by with some freeze protection.

So in summary, based on the present forecast, along with statistical probabilities, once we get past the next couple of days, odds would suggest that the area will be done with encountering freezes. However, climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get. And as we found out over the past few days, we don’t always like what we get. -WWD

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Re: March 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:04 am

I dont believe wintwr is over just yet, I think our NW counties including my area still have 1-3 more freezes left, not looking forward to the digusting warm weather ahead🤮

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Re: March 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:31 am

Jeff’s post was specific to Montgomery County.
I highly doubt the Houston metro area sees another freeze until fall.
Yes, spring is here (no more freezes) but remember spring is not summer; it is a season of transition so of course we will get some more cold fronts and cold snaps.

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Re: March 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:35 am

Ill take more cold fronts over another unbearable summer thats on the horizon

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Re: March 2022

Post by jasons2k » Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:38 pm

Just made a quick run to the store. Everybody must have had cabin fever and now Spring fever because I saw more people out jogging, walking, riding bikes, & walking dogs than I’ve seen in a good while. It’s a wonderful, glorious thing - glorious indeed!! 🌞🌼🌴🍀🌿🌱

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Re: March 2022

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Feb 28, 2022 7:28 pm

mcheer23 wrote:
Wed Feb 16, 2022 10:07 am
Posting for entertainment purposes only. :D :lol:
That forecast model is not likely to pan out. :lol:

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