March 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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869MB
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The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

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The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

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Cpv17
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869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

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The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

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I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011056
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
456 AM CST Tue Mar 1 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Wednesday Night]...

Surface high pressure over the area will slowly migrate eastward
Wednesday. Weak mid level disturbances riding over weak ridging
aloft will bring variable amounts of cloud cover thru the period
but moisture availability much too low for rain. May see some
really patchy, shallow ground fog try to develop tonight west of
Highway 288 & south of Interstate 69. Maybe a bit more coverage
west of the metro area up to about Interstate 10 Wednesday night
with the return of light se winds & slightly higher dewpoints. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday]...

The dry/quiet pattern of late is expected to undergo changes as
the deep ridge in place over SE TX begins to shift east and the
return of onshore winds helps to increase temperatures and low-
level moisture across the area. We`ll likely end this work week
with a decent warming trend with highs Thurs/Fri in the mid and
upper 70s and then into the lower 80s by Sat/Sun. Additionally,
favorable conditions for patchy fog are expected to start along
our SW counties/Matagorda Bay early Thurs morning...then slowly
spreading up the coast to include Galveston Bay for Fri morning.

A series of strong/well-defined shortwaves moving downstream a-
long the main upper trough over the western U.S. are progged to
help weaken the upper ridge in place here over the weekend. The
tightening gradient (and subsequent increased onshore flow) may
be enough to produce some isolated WAA-type showers at/near the
coast as early as late Fri night/early Sat morning. This should
then evolve into a more summer-like pattern of mainly scattered
daytime/afternoon activity (along the seabreeze or perhaps weak
embedded disturbances in the SW flow aloft) through the weekend.
An increasingly positive tilt of this main longwave trough axis
(per global models) by the end of the weekend does hint that we
could see better chances for the passage of a cold front by Mon
or so. However, there are also some indications that this front
will stall over the area and help keep chance PoPs in the fore-
cast for the end of this period. 41

&&

.MARINE...

Light and generally variable winds will prevail across the Upper
TX coast today/tonight as high pressure remains over the region.
As this high begins to shift east, winds will be shifting to the
east by Weds/Weds night. Onshore winds are set to return by Thur
and are expected to strengthen starting Fri on through the week-
end in response to the next storm system deepening/moving across
the Southern Plains. Caution and/or Advisory flags may be needed
as early as Fri night and remaining in place through the weekend.
41

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR with light winds & variable high cloudiness. May see some patchy
shallow ground fog try to develop around LBX late tonight. If so,
it`ll burn off fairly quickly after sunrise Wed. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 43 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 44 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 64 51 66 55 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$
Stratton20
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Winter may not be over just yet, models are indicating we may see one final shot or arctic air around late next week
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DoctorMu
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Except for on and off the last couple of weeks, it's been a pretty good La Nina winter with some freezes, more sunshine than normal, etc.

Not surprisingly, models differ markedly on the outlook after this week. CMC has a cold front around the 7th, then cooler for a week. GFS runs warm.

Euro is in agreement with CMC blasting a front through on Mar 7-8 and another front on the 11th. Maybe a frost or two. "Aggie tradition" has cool weather during the first half of spring break.

Fall 2000, Winter 2021, Spring and Summer 2021 were probably the coolest 12 month span since we moved to CLL. More in store, or return to that very warm Fall 2021??
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:13 am
869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.

It's a "severe drought" every summer in CLL! :lol:

Horticulture is not for the faint of heart in the Brazos Valley.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 11:13 am
869MB wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 5:04 am The CFS Monthly has trended drier and drier for the month of March for SE Texas with each run...

Image


The latest March run of the CanSIPS supports the CFS Monthly with drier anomalies for SE Texas for the month of March...

Image
I’m expecting a severe drought by the summer. Not looking good at all.

It's a "severe drought" every summer in CLL! :lol:

Horticulture is not for the faint of heart in the Brazos Valley.
I heard the latest CFSv2 forecast has a La Niña continuing through the summer and into next winter.
Stratton20
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Looks like we may have one more shot of arctic air coming next week as it has been showing up in the models for a while now with support from the GEFS, its going to be modified since its march but it looks like this arctic blast could be originating from the arctic/ siberia area
mcheer23
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Stratton20 wrote: Tue Mar 01, 2022 8:59 pm Looks like we may have one more shot of arctic air coming next week as it has been showing up in the models for a while now with support from the GEFS, its going to be modified since its march but it looks like this arctic blast could be originating from the arctic/ siberia area
As I said last Thursday in the February thread...."around March 10th..just maybe" ;) ;)
kyzsl51
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Lol even if its modified ill savor the cooler weather while I can! We lost a month in December.
Iceresistance
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The Climate Prediction Center has a Slight Risk of Way below Normal Temperatures Next week for my area
Stratton20
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Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks sure do look nice😁😁😁
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Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Mar 02, 2022 3:02 pm Noaa’s 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks sure do look nice😁😁😁
Not too shabby! The sweating can hold off a wee bit longer hopefully.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yup looks like winter is making one final stand!😁 Gladly will take it as we know a few months of misery is just around the corner😆😆😂
Cpv17
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18z GFS looks beautiful beginning late next week.
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captainbarbossa19
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Hey everyone. It has been a while. Wow, this winter sure had some nice cold weather. I counted about 15 freezes between January to March at my location, which is a lot more than average. Concerning rainfall, it has been rather dry so far. While I know a lot of people are calling for a drought this spring, I am not ready to buy. March is typically a dry month in itself. Often, rainfall can be one inch or less. Also, Houston recorded its 5th wettest January this year. ENSO does typically play a part in our spring weather, but I would not be shocked to see a similar pattern to last year: dry at the start of spring, then wet later.
Cpv17
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Beautiful!!

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jabcwb2
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:o :o :shock: I just spent the last 3 days planting my garden. Sounds like time and $$$ wasted.
Cpv17
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jabcwb2 wrote: Thu Mar 03, 2022 3:14 pm :o :o :shock: I just spent the last 3 days planting my garden. Sounds like time and $$$ wasted.
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Stratton20
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Cpv17 thats a bit of a surprise, I was anticipating maybe a slight risk for hazardous temps but they have us at a moderate/high chance
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