April 2022

[Stratton20]

It does appear that by next sunday/monday we could be potentially entering a more unsettled weather pattern

[DoctorMu]

Potential for significant rain on April 13th. We'll see. High and dry until then.

[Iceresistance]

This is really concerning

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... gr%5Etweet

[Iceresistance]

This is very concerning, even though that this does need to be taken with a Grain of Salt

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1 ... gr%5Etweet

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance that is far out, not worried about it atm, but definitely something to watch, its been a crazy severe with season so far for some areas

[Cpv17]

Iceresistance that is far out, not worried about it atm, but definitely something to watch, its been a crazy severe with season so far for some areas

The SPC is already on it. Check out their day 6 through 8 discussion. As of now it looks to be well north of us again, though.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance that is far out, not worried about it atm, but definitely something to watch, its been a crazy severe with season so far for some areas

I know, but there has been unusual model consistency with this potential severe weather outbreak, even if it's 6-8 days out.

Even Big Joe B is worried about this.

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance that is far out, not worried about it atm, but definitely something to watch, its been a crazy severe with season so far for some areas

The SPC is already on it. Check out their day 6 through 8 discussion. As of now it looks to be well north of us again, though.

I may get absolutely clobbered with this, they did say for 4/13 that there is going to be severe storms, but the model spread is too high right now. They may put a Slight Risk out for 4/13 on later outlooks.

[Iceresistance]

GFS has good consistency for Storms in Southern & SE Texas on April 12th

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS has good consistency for Storms in Southern & SE Texas on April 12th

At some point, I suspect we will get a decent amount of storms. Capping, as usual, has been a problem for our area, but eventually the issue of capping goes away. What we really need is a nice cutoff low to develop out to our west and really focus storm development over the region. This would certainly get us out of the dry pattern.

[Cromagnum]

Glad pollen has no effect on me. There is a ton of it in the air.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum same for me no effect , though it is rather annoying having it get blown around by this wind and then it gets all over you

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Clear skies and gusty northerly winds have developed this
afternoon in the wake of a dry cold front. Winds should begin to relax
across all terminals this evening, though KGLS will likely see
gusty conditions through tonight into Thursday. Winds should start
to pick up Thursday morning as moderate to strong gusts mix down
to the surface.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1120 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...
Prefrontal trough moving through the coastal areas and cold front
lagging by an hour or so. Gusty NNW winds in the wake of the cold
front will bring gusts of 30 to 35 mph into a decent chunk of the
region. Have expanded the Wind Advisory to include Galveston/Harris
counties for this afternoon. Impressive undular bore clouds
passing off the coast at 11 am.

Temperatures will level off with the CAA and may see temperatures
rise a few more degrees mainly thanks to the clear skies post-
frontal. Temperatures will fall quickly this evening with the loss
of heating.

45


.LONG TERM...

Even with the northerly flow ending on Fri and onshore winds re-
suming on Sat, dry/quiet weather to prevail across SE TX through
the weekend. Highs in the mid and upper 70s on Fri will be slow-
ly warming Sat/Sun into the lower to mid 80s. Lows should follow
a similar trajectory: mid and upper 40s Fri night...upper 50s to
lower 60s Sat night and lower to mid 60s Sun night.

Changes to this pattern could start as early as Sun afternoon or
evening as models continue to advocate the return of much deeper
moisture from the Gulf as per the strong S/SE winds at the lower
levels. Not too confident that there will be enough moisture for
more than isolated activity Sun afternoon. However, as this mod-
erate/strong WAA and influx of moisture continues across the CWA
through the start of the week (Mon-Tues), we could fall into the
pattern of mainly overnight/early morning streamer showers along
and near the coast which would then segue into isolated activity
further inland during the afternoon. Development would be enhan-
ced by the approach/passage of various shortwaves in the SW flow
aloft. One such instance is currently progged for Tues. And when
combined with forecasted PWs from 1.6-1.9" for the start of next
week, we could be in for a rather wet/rainy couple of days if we
do get any disturbances. Looking further ahead, models are still
in poor consensus with the next cold front for the middle of the
week. ECMWF/Canadian currently running a bit faster than the GFS
with this boundary. Stay tuned. 41


.MARINE...

Patchy dense fog currently over the bays and coastal waters will
be lingering until late this morning...until the passage of this
next cold front early this afternoon. Behind the front, look for
strong gusty north/northwest winds to develop through the after-
noon and persist overnight. Small Craft Advisories have been is-
sued for all marine areas until tomorrow morning...then going to
a mix of SCA/SCEC flags for the afternoon. Winds and seas should
gradually subside late tomorrow afternoon/evening. This offshore
flow will persist until high pressure builds in Friday night and
onshore winds return early Saturday. S/SE flow will be strength-
ening Sun/Mon as the gradient tightens up once again. 41


.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated fire weather conditions will prevail today through Friday
as post frontal winds usher in low dewpoints and gusty conditions.

Today: RH`s are forecast to bottom out in the 25-35% range with NNW
winds 15g30mph.

Thurs: A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of the region as
conditions will be even drier. Afternoon RH`s will be in the teens
and 15-20mph winds are anticipated.

Fri: Similar conditions expected as Thurs, although wind speeds
should be just a touch lower.

Sat-Sun: winds should finally turn around to the south on Sat but
that will come with warmer air and not much in the way of moisture
recovery until Sunday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 45 74 43 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 52 75 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 60 75 57 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
evening for the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Grimes...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT
Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to
Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Brokamp

[mcheer23]

GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain, EURO about a tenth of an inch

[Cromagnum]

GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain, EURO about a tenth of an inch

The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too.

[Texaspirate11]

CSU came out with their early cane predictions
From Phil Klotzbach
19/9/4
I was just down in COZUMEL and the water was already above 80 degrees and temps in the upper 80s'....in April.

We anticipate that the 2022 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal
activity. Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO
by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface
temperatures averaged across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently near
average, while Caribbean and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are warmer
than normal. We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making
landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case
with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane
making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for
every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

[Stratton20]

Yep it looks like Hurricane season is gonna be another active one, definitely not liking the fact that the caribbean and southern gulf are running well above warmer than normal, could be another season of headaches awaiting

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain, EURO about a tenth of an inch

The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too.

I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 071750
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Gusty northerly winds will continue through the afternoon as
stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface. Gusty conditions
should cease across all inland terminals this evening as winds
decouple, though winds will remain elevated at KGLS throughout
the night. Friday morning, mixing should resume after sunrise,
once again bringing windy northerly winds throughout our area.
03

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Friday Night]...

Red Flag Warning for fire weather hazards remains in effect.

Temperatures were rising quickly and winds picked up a little
stronger and earlier than expected. RH values at 11 am already
down to 25-30 percent near the coast around Galveston Bay and then
drier from Madison to Bay City with 20-25 percent. All the things
you don`t want to do to the forecast in this situation...nudged
up temperatures a degree or two, lowered the RH and tweaked up
winds slightly which will aggravate these already hazardous
conditions. RH values of 10-15 percent should be where it bottoms
out this afternoon but will need to stress here that nearly as
importantly was the dry start this morning and that we won`t be
having good recovery in the moisture overnight followed by a
repeat on Friday.

If you are outdoors today make every effort to minimize your
possibility of starting a fire, grilling, parking on the side of
the road on the grass, dragging chains, tossing a lit cigarette,
fireworks and such. Please be careful out there.

45


.LONG TERM [Saturday through Thursday]...

Dry/quiet weather will prevail Sat/Sun even as temperatures slowly
warm in response to the return of onshore winds and some low-level
moisture. Highs for the weekend should be in the lower and mid 80s
with lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Rain chances will
still be very low/nil on Sun even as models continue to indicate a
healthy surge of moisture from the Gulf (from 1 to 1.4"). Forecast
soundings are still showing quite a bit of dry air aloft.

However, this persistent/strong WAA should help to moisten the air
column enough for perhaps isolated/widely scattered mostly diurnal
activity for Mon/Tues. Development could be further enhanced via a
passing shortwave (or two) as PWs climb (1.6-1.8" Mon and 1.8-2.1"
Tues). The timing of these aforementioned shortwaves (via the SWly
flow aloft) will be key. And given the time frame, going to keep a
cap on POPs at 20-30%. By Weds, long range guidance with this next
cold front remains quite divergent. Weaker, slower to a more back-
door type FROPA all appear to be on the table for both Weds/Thurs.
So, for now, going likely just keep extended POPs at/around 20%.
41


.MARINE...

Based on observations from along the coast so far this morning,
have decided to lower the SCA for the bays to Caution flags for
today. However, the Small Craft Advisories will remain in place
over the near/offshore waters through the afternoon and evening.
Winds should decrease a bit more tomorrow, but SCEC flags could
be in place for our Gulf waters. Surface high pressure building
into the region tomorrow night will further decrease winds/seas
across the region. Light onshore winds to return Sat...and then
will be strengthening Sun/Mon as the pressure gradient tightens
once again with the development of the next storm system across
the Central Plains. SCEC/SCA flags may be needed at that time.
41


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of southeast Texas today.
Combination of low dewpoints, daytime heating, humidities falling
into the teens and wind gusts 17-27mph will make for critical fire
wx conditions throughout the day.

Poor recovery expected tonight/Friday morning as RH may only rise to
around 50 percent. The profile on Friday indicates a very shallow
nocturnal inversion that should dissipate very quickly with a sharp
rise in temperatures in a very dry profile. RH should plummet in the
morning and RH values of 15-20 percent should be commonplace with
moderate northwest winds, albeit a touch lower than what is expected
today. Have posted a Fire Weather Watch for Fri and will let the
next few shifts evaluate the latest model data in regards to
forecast wind speeds which will likely be the determining factor if
or where Red Flag Warnings may be needed Friday. 47/45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 43 75 45 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 46 76 49 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 76 60 75 69 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for the following zones: Austin...Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island...Grimes...Houston...Inland
Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland
Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...45
LONG TERM...Lenninger
AVIATION...Brokamp

[Cpv17]

GFS shows 2-4 inches of rain, EURO about a tenth of an inch

The way 2022 has gone, I'll be pulling the sprinklers out next week too.

I'm waiting for the 12z Euro, but I am actually more encouraged about model trends. The Euro had a rather significant southward shift in precipitation between yesterday's 12z run and the 0z Thursday run. The GFS is about the same between runs, but what matters is if the rainfall is decreasing overall or shifting away from the region. In these cases, the trends are encouraging.

The 12z Euro was still a no go for most of us. It’s really favoring the Golden Triangle and LA/MS. Need it to trend wsw a good 100 miles.