April 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: April 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:14 am

I never trust weather apps lol

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:40 am

Stratton20 wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:14 am
I never trust weather apps lol
Of course not, it's just a model dump. But they help to give an indication of trends when I'm too busy to check models....which is a lot these days. :D

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Fri Apr 29, 2022 10:56 am

I get the feeling that if the pattern flips wet, it is going to happen suddenly and with little warning. Models often really struggle handling pattern changes from dry to wet when they occur.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Apr 29, 2022 1:50 pm

…and the chance of rain for tomorrow is back, at 30%

Maybe we’ll get lucky…

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:04 pm

20% still progged on NOAA for Sat.

However, 30-40% next Wed night and Thursday assuming the backdoor front edges nearer.

note: the Ensembles continue to be more optimistic about rain beginning next Thursday than the models...for the northern counties of the area.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:12 pm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Warm weather is still on the tap for the next few days as a broad
surface high over the Eastern Seaboard continues to bring onshore
flow and WAA to SE Texas. Breezy conditions should continue tonight
as the pressure gradient tightens from a surface low over the
Central Plains. A weak cold front associated with this surface low
should sag into eastern Texas tonight, though the front itself will
slow near the Red River Valley as its aforementioned low fills
northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cloudy skies will
develop overnight ahead of this front, limiting diurnal cooling and
keeping lows in the mid to lower 70s overnight. Muggy conditions
will begin to set in across SE Texas later tonight as dewpoints
climb into the 70s.

On Saturday, the weak cold front will slowly continue southeast
during the day, eventually stalling over the I-35 corridor late in
the afternoon. Much of the rain from this front should stay north of
SE Texas, though if the front ends up further south, showers and
thunderstorms be possible, particularly across our northernmost
counties. A few light showers may also develop along the coast as
well. Cloudy skies should continue during the day, though persistent
WAA will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday night will
once again be muggy, with lows in the mid to lower 70s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

May Day, May Day, May Day! Now that`s not a distress signal...unless
you want to sound the alarm for high temperatures in the 90s for next
week. May Day (Sunday, May 1st) is the beginning of the long term
period and is usually treated as a celebration of Spring. Our gift
from Mother Nature is nearly summer-like conditions through most
of the week. Although most of this period looks rather hot, there
will be some chances to cool things off whether that be through
rainfall or a late week cold front. There is one thing that`s 100%
certain though...it`s gonna be May! On Sunday morning, a cold
front will be in the process of retreating northward, but the
lingering moisture keeps rain chances in the grids for most of the
day with the highest chances generally north of I-10.

A shortwave trough moving through North TX on Monday afternoon
should generate a MCS, but the question will be how long it can hold
together as it moves towards Southeast TX. In general, northeastern
locations (e.g. Piney Woods area) have the best chance of seeing
showers/thunderstorms from this scenario. What does this mean for
those of us who miss out on the much needed rain? Whelp...it`s gonna
be hot and humid, but at least there`ll be a breeze! With onshore
flow continuing to supply Gulf moisture and WAA to Southeast TX and
subtropical ridging building in on Tuesday, expect temperatures to
remain on the warm side especially overnight. Low temperatures
through midweek will be well above normal as we only drop into the
low to mid 70s. Subtropical ridging begins Tuesday and brings the
585 dm height line overhead with the 588 dm height line flirting
with areas south of I-10 possibly through Friday, so expect warm
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s.

PW values generally remain in the 1.3"-1.5" range throughout the
week, so various bouts of PVA (especially late Wednesday/Thursday)
could kick off showers/thunderstorms. The end of the week looks
rather interesting with all of the global models now onboard with
a late week/weekend FROPA as an upper-level trough moves across
the Central Plains. The timing is still all over the place with
some models being more progressive than others (late Friday versus
Sunday) with the trough and subsequent front. The spread in the
upper and lower quartiles for temperatures increases after
Thursday, so that gives you an idea of how uncertain things are at
the moment.
Since this is still a week out, the trend of bumping
high temperatures above deterministic guidance comes to a halt
after Thursday and we begin trending back towards NBM
deterministic guidance. So, there may be a light at the end of the
tunnel for this free trial of a summer-ish period ...just keep in
mind that this potential FROPA would be towards the end of the
first week of May.
Make of that what you will.

Batiste

&&

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:08 pm

91 here today.

Cpv17
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Re: April 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:16 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:08 pm
91 here today.
Well you can use your pool now lol

Stratton20
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Re: April 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:35 pm

what a tease at hours 300-324 on the 18z GFS

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:14 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:16 pm
jasons2k wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:08 pm
91 here today.
Well you can use your pool now lol
It’s already been heated the last few weekends :)

TWC app is a joke. Couple of hours ago showed 40% tomorrow. Now nothing. Will probably show 60% at bedtime and 0% when I wake up.

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