April 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun May 01, 2022 2:05 pm

don wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 12:18 pm
Looks like "popcorn" shower season is here. :D
The first true seabreeze afternoon. The showers won't make it here to CLL, but clouds are reducing the heat.

Thursday looks like the best chance of rain at 60%. No real change in the forecast since yesterday.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Sun May 01, 2022 2:13 pm

Thursday's front is a maybe to probably. One concern is the continuance of above normal temps, about a month ahead. Periodic rain will help for sure. Most of the energy remains north, but a rogue shower on Monday or Tuesday (probably from outflow boundaries) and FROPA on Thursday present a chance this week. Sprinklers are off for now, but not the A/C. Dewpoints will hover around 70°F maybe above, reducing our comfortable periods to be outside.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A few showers and storms are slowly pushing north across the I-10
corridor. As temperatures continue to increase, a few more showers
and storms could initiate this afternoon. Therefore, most sites
have VCTS wording until 00-02Z this evening. VFR ceilings should
prevail this afternoon, but will transition back to MVFR late
tonight. A strengthening front across the DFW area will increase
winds locally overnight, so fog should stay away. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings will slowly lift tomorrow morning and winds will become
gusty by 18Z.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022/...

DISCUSSION...

For most of this week, the atmosphere says it`s gonna be...well,
probably still May, but closer to temperatures we`d expect from
Memorial Day than the beginning of the month. We`ll also see
potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms more days
than not, with the best chances for that development routinely
occurring to the north of the Houston metro.

Looking farther out, there`s still some chance for a late spring
front to move through, but there remains considerable uncertainty
on the details. And - let`s be honest - the relief we`ll see from
any late spring fronts is going to be limited at best.

SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

Strong thunderstorms that develop along the stalled cold front late
last night into early this morning and affected Grimes, Walker, and
Brazos Counties have dissipated and only a few passing showers
remained across Burleson and Brazos Counties as of 3 AM. For the
rest of today, conditions remain unstable and as diurnal heating
ramps up, expect a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms
developing along areas north of the I-10 corridor as the frontal
boundary slowly moves north as a warm front. Stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail, strong gusty winds, and periods of heavy
downpours. Today`s max temperatures will be in the upper 80s for
most of the region. Southeasterly flow will prevail allowing min
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s tonight into early
Monday morning.

On Monday, expect conditions to continue to warm up with max
temperatures two to three degrees higher Monday afternoon. A weak
upper level trough will be moving across the Great Plains and may
help trigger a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northern counties during the day.
However, forecast soundings show a
pretty good cap for much of the day, so we may not see much activity
happening. If any storms do break through the cap however, it will
not take much for these storms to become strong with the potential
to produce hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. South to
southeasterly flow will be strengthening as a low pressure over the
TX panhandle tightens the pressure gradient across the local area.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Specific timing probably gets a little bit tricky given the
broader scenario, but the situation aloft on Tuesday morning
likely sees the northern stream in a spot with one upper trough
over the Upper Midwest making its way out, while the briefest of
ridges builds over the Plains, but with the next trough already
making its way across the Intermountain West to provide the next
car in the train. Meanwhile, to the south, midlevel ridging sits
in place in the general vicinity of Mexico City. This really is a
pretty good description of the upper level pattern through the
long term: the subtropical ridge tries to grow its influence
northward, while a progressive pattern to our north gives us
multiple upper troughs with only very brief spurts of ridging
between them.

What does that mean for sensible weather? Well, basically the same
thing that`s been said for several days now. Those upper troughs
will be accompanied by surface lows, generally crossing from the
Central Plains and ejecting northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
They`ll trail cold fronts down into Texas, but most/all of them
will fizzle out before reaching our forecast area.
This will give
us a couple different ways of seeing precip - isolated
showers/storms from any updrafts that manage to defeat the cap
with daytime heating (this is probably not so likely, but
theoretically possible), but also from the remnants of MCSs
forming farther upstream in Texas either surviving into our area,
or sparking new isolated to scattered storms as their outflow
collides with the airmass in place.
Given that this stuff will be
moving in from the northwest, the highest rain chances most days
will be in the northern part of our forecast area - spots like
B/CS, Madisonville, Huntsville, etc.


Now, despite this being to main scenario, the guidance always
seems to like one front to push all the way into/through Southeast
Texas in this period. And happily, there always seems to be model
consensus on which front it is! Unhappily, that consensus seems to
bounce around from day to day. The winner tonight is Thursday`s
front, which means the highest widespread PoPs cluster on Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Given that the upper support of the
trough will be well to our north, that will be the focus for any
organized severe weather.
But even with the lack of that, we
should have enough instability for the strongest of the days
storms to flirt with some larger hail. Of course, given the
models` struggle to maintain run to run consistency, this may flip
back to the weekend by tomorrow? Or maybe, if we`re lucky, we`ll
finally get some more confidence in the timing on this.

As far as temperatures go, we can expect roughly more of the same
for the bulk of the week as our preview of summer continues.
Things might...might...get a little more interesting (read:
cooler, a little bit) at the end of the week, but there are some
reasons for concern at this not really materializing. The main
issue is that the upper trough lags pretty far behind the surface
front, so even if we do get a front all the way to the Gulf,
switching winds around to northwesterly, the air aloft is still
coming out of the Mexican interior, keeping any impact shallow and
limited. And even any immediate surface cooling looks limited, as
winds only get about 24 hours of being offshore before flipping
back. Indeed, looking at some ensemble products, both NAEFS and
EPS show 90th percentile temps in some portion of the column
returning for the weekend, and the EFI begins to show hints of
abnormal warmth at the Gulf Coast this weekend, and the Euro might
just be the most aggressive with the front in the first place!


So, while we might get a drier - and by extension - coolish night
or two in the wake of any frontal passage, it looks like we`ll be
right back into the thick of it pretty quick. This is also what
the NBM deterministic numbers are showing, with output that for
highs is near or right at the distribution`s 75th percentile,
and lows for a night or two after the front falling closer to the
25th percentile - likely a consequence of drier air cooling
overnight more efficiently. Given that these trends track pretty
well with my conceptual model of how things play out, I mostly
just took the NBM at face value tonight. My main adjustment was to
nudge coastal lows up before any late week FROPA.

MARINE...

Generally moderate to strong onshore winds will continue with the
new week. A series of disturbances moving across the Plains could
help to occasionally tighten the pressure gradient enough to
strengthen winds and require Caution flags at times during this
period. The first such period looks to begin as early as this
evening. In addition, the persistent onshore flow looks to boost
water levels at high tide - perhaps as high as three feet above
MLLW at the highest. The persistent onshore flow will also
increase the potential for strong rip currents at Gulf-facing
beaches.

HYDROLOGY...

An advisory for minor flooding is in place from overnight rains in
Grimes and Brazos counties. Look for elevated streamflows as well
in this area and other locations that saw storms over the past 24
hours. On a broader scale, the impacts should be relatively
limited for riverine flooding, as storms were too isolated to
produce significant widespread rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 72 88 73 89 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 73 87 74 89 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 76 83 76 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1237 PM CDT Sun May 1 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A few showers and storms are slowly pushing north across the I-10
corridor. As temperatures continue to increase, a few more showers
and storms could initiate this afternoon. Therefore, most sites
have VCTS wording until 00-02Z this evening. VFR ceilings should
prevail this afternoon, but will transition back to MVFR late
tonight. A strengthening front across the DFW area will increase
winds locally overnight, so fog should stay away. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings will slowly lift tomorrow morning and winds will become
gusty by 18Z.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 345 AM CDT Sun May 1 2022/...

DISCUSSION...

For most of this week, the atmosphere says it`s gonna be...well,
probably still May, but closer to temperatures we`d expect from
Memorial Day than the beginning of the month. We`ll also see
potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms more days
than not, with the best chances for that development routinely
occurring to the north of the Houston metro.

Looking farther out, there`s still some chance for a late spring
front to move through, but there remains considerable uncertainty
on the details. And - let`s be honest - the relief we`ll see from
any late spring fronts is going to be limited at best.

SHORT TERM [Through Monday Night]...

Strong thunderstorms that develop along the stalled cold front late
last night into early this morning and affected Grimes, Walker, and
Brazos Counties have dissipated and only a few passing showers
remained across Burleson and Brazos Counties as of 3 AM. For the
rest of today, conditions remain unstable and as diurnal heating
ramps up, expect a few more rounds of showers and thunderstorms
developing along areas north of the I-10 corridor as the frontal
boundary slowly moves north as a warm front. Stronger storms will be
capable of producing hail, strong gusty winds, and periods of heavy
downpours. Today`s max temperatures will be in the upper 80s for
most of the region. Southeasterly flow will prevail allowing min
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 70s tonight into early
Monday morning.

On Monday, expect conditions to continue to warm up with max
temperatures two to three degrees higher Monday afternoon. A weak
upper level trough will be moving across the Great Plains and may
help trigger a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
northern counties during the day. However, forecast soundings show a
pretty good cap for much of the day, so we may not see much activity
happening. If any storms do break through the cap however, it will
not take much for these storms to become strong with the potential
to produce hail, gusty winds and locally heavy rain. South to
southeasterly flow will be strengthening as a low pressure over the
TX panhandle tightens the pressure gradient across the local area.

LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]...

Specific timing probably gets a little bit tricky given the
broader scenario, but the situation aloft on Tuesday morning
likely sees the northern stream in a spot with one upper trough
over the Upper Midwest making its way out, while the briefest of
ridges builds over the Plains, but with the next trough already
making its way across the Intermountain West to provide the next
car in the train. Meanwhile, to the south, midlevel ridging sits
in place in the general vicinity of Mexico City. This really is a
pretty good description of the upper level pattern through the
long term: the subtropical ridge tries to grow its influence
northward, while a progressive pattern to our north gives us
multiple upper troughs with only very brief spurts of ridging
between them.

What does that mean for sensible weather? Well, basically the same
thing that`s been said for several days now. Those upper troughs
will be accompanied by surface lows, generally crossing from the
Central Plains and ejecting northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
They`ll trail cold fronts down into Texas, but most/all of them
will fizzle out before reaching our forecast area. This will give
us a couple different ways of seeing precip - isolated
showers/storms from any updrafts that manage to defeat the cap
with daytime heating (this is probably not so likely, but
theoretically possible), but also from the remnants of MCSs
forming farther upstream in Texas either surviving into our area,
or sparking new isolated to scattered storms as their outflow
collides with the airmass in place. Given that this stuff will be
moving in from the northwest, the highest rain chances most days
will be in the northern part of our forecast area - spots like
B/CS, Madisonville, Huntsville, etc.

Now, despite this being to main scenario, the guidance always
seems to like one front to push all the way into/through Southeast
Texas in this period. And happily, there always seems to be model
consensus on which front it is! Unhappily, that consensus seems to
bounce around from day to day. The winner tonight is Thursday`s
front, which means the highest widespread PoPs cluster on Thursday
afternoon and Thursday night. Given that the upper support of the
trough will be well to our north, that will be the focus for any
organized severe weather. But even with the lack of that, we
should have enough instability for the strongest of the days
storms to flirt with some larger hail. Of course, given the
models` struggle to maintain run to run consistency, this may flip
back to the weekend by tomorrow? Or maybe, if we`re lucky, we`ll
finally get some more confidence in the timing on this.

As far as temperatures go, we can expect roughly more of the same
for the bulk of the week as our preview of summer continues.
Things might...might...get a little more interesting (read:
cooler, a little bit) at the end of the week, but there are some
reasons for concern at this not really materializing. The main
issue is that the upper trough lags pretty far behind the surface
front, so even if we do get a front all the way to the Gulf,
switching winds around to northwesterly, the air aloft is still
coming out of the Mexican interior, keeping any impact shallow and
limited. And even any immediate surface cooling looks limited, as
winds only get about 24 hours of being offshore before flipping
back. Indeed, looking at some ensemble products, both NAEFS and
EPS show 90th percentile temps in some portion of the column
returning for the weekend, and the EFI begins to show hints of
abnormal warmth at the Gulf Coast this weekend, and the Euro might
just be the most aggressive with the front in the first place!

So, while we might get a drier - and by extension - coolish night
or two in the wake of any frontal passage, it looks like we`ll be
right back into the thick of it pretty quick. This is also what
the NBM deterministic numbers are showing, with output that for
highs is near or right at the distribution`s 75th percentile,
and lows for a night or two after the front falling closer to the
25th percentile - likely a consequence of drier air cooling
overnight more efficiently. Given that these trends track pretty
well with my conceptual model of how things play out, I mostly
just took the NBM at face value tonight. My main adjustment was to
nudge coastal lows up before any late week FROPA.

MARINE...

Generally moderate to strong onshore winds will continue with the
new week. A series of disturbances moving across the Plains could
help to occasionally tighten the pressure gradient enough to
strengthen winds and require Caution flags at times during this
period. The first such period looks to begin as early as this
evening. In addition, the persistent onshore flow looks to boost
water levels at high tide - perhaps as high as three feet above
MLLW at the highest. The persistent onshore flow will also
increase the potential for strong rip currents at Gulf-facing
beaches.

HYDROLOGY...

An advisory for minor flooding is in place from overnight rains in
Grimes and Brazos counties. Look for elevated streamflows as well
in this area and other locations that saw storms over the past 24
hours. On a broader scale, the impacts should be relatively
limited for riverine flooding, as storms were too isolated to
produce significant widespread rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 72 88 73 89 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
Houston (IAH) 73 87 74 89 74 / 10 10 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 84 76 83 76 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 01, 2022 2:29 pm

Nice summertime thunderstorm here now!! Yes!! Keeping it green!

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captainbarbossa19
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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Sun May 01, 2022 2:31 pm

Feels like summer today with popup showers. Also, not sure if anyone noticed, but today is May 1. This is the April thread still.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 01, 2022 2:31 pm

Wow I just heard a pop so loud it hurt my eardrums!! It was in the neighbor’s yard.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Sun May 01, 2022 2:32 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Sun May 01, 2022 2:31 pm
Feels like summer today with popup showers. Also, not sure if anyone noticed, but today is May 1. This is the April thread still.
Oh yeah. The May thread needs to be pinned.

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