April 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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What shall it bring? Showers? Severe weather?
869MB
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Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
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captainbarbossa19
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869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
We’ll see if it still shows it. 12z Euro is running now but yesterday’s 12z and the previous 0z runs looked quite potent.
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol
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captainbarbossa19
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:36 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:36 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm

Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.
869MB
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
For all intents and purposes, both of these climate models have been fairly accurate for the month of March so far showing drier than normal anomalies for many portions of Texas including most of SE Texas. For example, most of the Harris County rainfall average is just below one inch of rain since March 1st:

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

I've personally only received around 0.60 inches of rain in my neighborhood since March 1st. If I don't receive any significant rains from this current 3/22 storm system, I will definitely finish the month well below average for the month. And yes one storm system can skew the validation of these outlooks with respect to a city and/or a region. As far as the month of April is concerned, we shall see.
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captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:41 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 5:36 pm

It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.
Too much zonal flow. No big dips in the jet. Those runs a couple days ago it had a cutoff low slowly traversing over Texas. Now the past two runs it went back to a boring zonal flow.
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Cpv17 wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 8:21 am
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:41 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 11:35 pm

Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.
Too much zonal flow. No big dips in the jet. Those runs a couple days ago it had a cutoff low slowly traversing over Texas. Now the past two runs it went back to a boring zonal flow.
And now it's back again. Lol. Gotta love models at that range. Given that we just had a decent system move through earlier, I am more inclined to believe that something will happen next week. However, we know our weather can be unpredictable.
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869MB wrote: Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:19 am
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:04 pm
869MB wrote: Sun Mar 20, 2022 8:37 pm Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
For all intents and purposes, both of these climate models have been fairly accurate for the month of March so far showing drier than normal anomalies for many portions of Texas including most of SE Texas. For example, most of the Harris County rainfall average is just below one inch of rain since March 1st:

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

I've personally only received around 0.60 inches of rain in my neighborhood since March 1st. If I don't receive any significant rains from this current 3/22 storm system, I will definitely finish the month well below average for the month. And yes one storm system can skew the validation of these outlooks with respect to a city and/or a region. As far as the month of April is concerned, we shall see.
Right. March has been drier than normal overall, but a model that forecasts drier weather for this month is more than likely going to be right most of the time. Let's not forget that despite being deep into a La Niña, Houston experienced its 5th wettest January on record. That could have been an anomaly in the pattern, but it happened nonetheless. Temperature-wise, climate models have not been performing well at all. January and February were both projected to be warmer than normal, but instead were colder. Until climate models start consistently performing better on a month-to-month basis, I do not give much weight to them. Shorter-range models are much more accurate and consistent.
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There isn’t really much to talk about but the Euro has been showing this the past couple runs:

Image

But it’s 10 days out.
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Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:35 pm Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run
Yeah it’s a good looking bowling ball.
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:40 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:35 pm Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run
Yeah it’s a good looking bowling ball.
Well the 0z Euro continues to insist a cutoff low developing out west of us towards the end of the run. It is not moving much, but I am starting to think that it senses the potential for a pattern change. I would not be surprised to see at some point in April a significant storm system bring heavy rain. Cutoff lows certainly begin to become more common in our area starting in April climatology wise.
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Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

Image

Image
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CPV17 yeah thays definitely surprising
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 6:00 pm CPV17 yeah thays definitely surprising
I do not think we saw a single above-precipitation forecast for spring 2011. This is certainly heading in the right direction now! Looks we might just see April showers.
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captainbarbossa19
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Looks like a good chance of rain may be coming up next week again. April starts in less than 2 days!
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 4:44 pm Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

Image

Image
It's Hotlinked, It now says that it's Below Normal Rainfall
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