April 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4472
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
Attachments
7C4B87E9-5630-4221-A167-1653C7CA8237.png
A2FBD1FF-AFB0-450B-ADC6-D80E530BF4B8.png
Cpv17
Posts: 5586
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:19 pm NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:55 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:19 pm NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.
The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS) are picking up a backdoor front next week that appears to linger. That would be nice.


Image
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Euro is now seeing the back door front late next week.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2805
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

12Z GFS looks pretty active in the long range FWIW as we enter the 2nd week of May.

Looks like the southern and central plains is about to get a big uptake in severe weather as we enter May.Now as far as any severe weather here locally is yet to be determined.One thing to keep in mind as we saw Monday,its common in the mid to long range this time of year for models to stall or wash out fronts too far to the north.Keeping the majority of rain north of us.But in reality a lot of times this time of year fronts will end up further south than what the models show in the mid range.So don't be surprised if the models trend wetter here in SE Texas over the next week.
Last edited by don on Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:44 pm I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!
After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...
Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:45 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:44 pm I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!
After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...
Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.
Those NW aloft modes are nice, because we get drier air and rain. I suspect we'll see the seabreeze before NW aloft dry lines or cutoff ULLs. We'll see.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2805
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:46 am Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.
That's because those forecast are based on model data(I'm sure you already know that though :) ).So when the model flip flops between runs the automated forecast does also.I never pay any attention to app forecast for that reason.
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:46 am Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.
Down to 20% here.
Stratton20
Posts: 4472
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

I never trust weather apps lol
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:14 am I never trust weather apps lol
Of course not, it's just a model dump. But they help to give an indication of trends when I'm too busy to check models....which is a lot these days. :D
User avatar
captainbarbossa19
Posts: 406
Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
Location: Starkville, MS
Contact:

I get the feeling that if the pattern flips wet, it is going to happen suddenly and with little warning. Models often really struggle handling pattern changes from dry to wet when they occur.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

…and the chance of rain for tomorrow is back, at 30%

Maybe we’ll get lucky…
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

20% still progged on NOAA for Sat.

However, 30-40% next Wed night and Thursday assuming the backdoor front edges nearer.

note: the Ensembles continue to be more optimistic about rain beginning next Thursday than the models...for the northern counties of the area.

Image
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5985
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
222 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Warm weather is still on the tap for the next few days as a broad
surface high over the Eastern Seaboard continues to bring onshore
flow and WAA to SE Texas. Breezy conditions should continue tonight
as the pressure gradient tightens from a surface low over the
Central Plains. A weak cold front associated with this surface low
should sag into eastern Texas tonight, though the front itself will
slow near the Red River Valley as its aforementioned low fills
northeast into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Cloudy skies will
develop overnight ahead of this front, limiting diurnal cooling and
keeping lows in the mid to lower 70s overnight. Muggy conditions
will begin to set in across SE Texas later tonight as dewpoints
climb into the 70s.

On Saturday, the weak cold front will slowly continue southeast
during the day, eventually stalling over the I-35 corridor late in
the afternoon. Much of the rain from this front should stay north of
SE Texas, though if the front ends up further south, showers and
thunderstorms be possible, particularly across our northernmost
counties. A few light showers may also develop along the coast as
well. Cloudy skies should continue during the day, though persistent
WAA will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday night will
once again be muggy, with lows in the mid to lower 70s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

May Day, May Day, May Day! Now that`s not a distress signal...unless
you want to sound the alarm for high temperatures in the 90s for next
week. May Day (Sunday, May 1st) is the beginning of the long term
period and is usually treated as a celebration of Spring. Our gift
from Mother Nature is nearly summer-like conditions through most
of the week. Although most of this period looks rather hot, there
will be some chances to cool things off whether that be through
rainfall or a late week cold front. There is one thing that`s 100%
certain though...it`s gonna be May! On Sunday morning, a cold
front will be in the process of retreating northward, but the
lingering moisture keeps rain chances in the grids for most of the
day with the highest chances generally north of I-10.

A shortwave trough moving through North TX on Monday afternoon
should generate a MCS, but the question will be how long it can hold
together as it moves towards Southeast TX. In general, northeastern
locations (e.g. Piney Woods area) have the best chance of seeing
showers/thunderstorms from this scenario. What does this mean for
those of us who miss out on the much needed rain? Whelp...it`s gonna
be hot and humid, but at least there`ll be a breeze! With onshore
flow continuing to supply Gulf moisture and WAA to Southeast TX and
subtropical ridging building in on Tuesday, expect temperatures to
remain on the warm side especially overnight. Low temperatures
through midweek will be well above normal as we only drop into the
low to mid 70s. Subtropical ridging begins Tuesday and brings the
585 dm height line overhead with the 588 dm height line flirting
with areas south of I-10 possibly through Friday, so expect warm
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s.

PW values generally remain in the 1.3"-1.5" range throughout the
week, so various bouts of PVA (especially late Wednesday/Thursday)
could kick off showers/thunderstorms. The end of the week looks
rather interesting with all of the global models now onboard with
a late week/weekend FROPA as an upper-level trough moves across
the Central Plains. The timing is still all over the place with
some models being more progressive than others (late Friday versus
Sunday) with the trough and subsequent front. The spread in the
upper and lower quartiles for temperatures increases after
Thursday, so that gives you an idea of how uncertain things are at
the moment.
Since this is still a week out, the trend of bumping
high temperatures above deterministic guidance comes to a halt
after Thursday and we begin trending back towards NBM
deterministic guidance. So, there may be a light at the end of the
tunnel for this free trial of a summer-ish period ...just keep in
mind that this potential FROPA would be towards the end of the
first week of May.
Make of that what you will.

Batiste

&&
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

91 here today.
Cpv17
Posts: 5586
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:08 pm 91 here today.
Well you can use your pool now lol
Stratton20
Posts: 4472
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

what a tease at hours 300-324 on the 18z GFS
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5490
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:16 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:08 pm 91 here today.
Well you can use your pool now lol
It’s already been heated the last few weekends :)

TWC app is a joke. Couple of hours ago showed 40% tomorrow. Now nothing. Will probably show 60% at bedtime and 0% when I wake up.
Post Reply
  • Information