April 2022

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tireman4
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April 2022

Post by tireman4 » Wed Mar 16, 2022 1:23 pm

What shall it bring? Showers? Severe weather?

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Re: April 2022

Post by 869MB » Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm

Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image

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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm

869MB wrote:
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm
Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.

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Re: April 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:34 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm
869MB wrote:
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm
Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
We’ll see if it still shows it. 12z Euro is running now but yesterday’s 12z and the previous 0z runs looked quite potent.

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Re: April 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:36 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm
869MB wrote:
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm
Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol

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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:36 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm
869MB wrote:
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm
Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.

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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:41 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:36 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm


Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.

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Re: April 2022

Post by 869MB » Tue Mar 22, 2022 1:19 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 12:04 pm
869MB wrote:
Sun Mar 20, 2022 7:37 pm
Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:

Image


As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:

Image



Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Image
Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.
For all intents and purposes, both of these climate models have been fairly accurate for the month of March so far showing drier than normal anomalies for many portions of Texas including most of SE Texas. For example, most of the Harris County rainfall average is just below one inch of rain since March 1st:

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

I've personally only received around 0.60 inches of rain in my neighborhood since March 1st. If I don't receive any significant rains from this current 3/22 storm system, I will definitely finish the month well below average for the month. And yes one storm system can skew the validation of these outlooks with respect to a city and/or a region. As far as the month of April is concerned, we shall see.

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Re: April 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:21 am

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:41 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:35 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 4:36 pm


It went poof on the 12z lol
Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.
Too much zonal flow. No big dips in the jet. Those runs a couple days ago it had a cutoff low slowly traversing over Texas. Now the past two runs it went back to a boring zonal flow.

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Re: April 2022

Post by captainbarbossa19 » Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:10 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Tue Mar 22, 2022 7:21 am
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:41 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 10:35 pm


Yeah. I am not ready to discount the system yet, but it does not look good at the moment. It was strange that it still showed dry and moist air clashing but nothing coming from it. I guess the dynamics were not good but maybe it will pick up again on the 0z.
I was looking back at the run, and I figured out why it's so dry. The 850 and 700 level moisture is really low for us. The last run was a lot more moist. I think it doesn't know what's going on yet.
Too much zonal flow. No big dips in the jet. Those runs a couple days ago it had a cutoff low slowly traversing over Texas. Now the past two runs it went back to a boring zonal flow.
And now it's back again. Lol. Gotta love models at that range. Given that we just had a decent system move through earlier, I am more inclined to believe that something will happen next week. However, we know our weather can be unpredictable.

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