April 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
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Re: April 2022

Post by Stratton20 » Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:19 pm

NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
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Cpv17
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Re: April 2022

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:55 pm

Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:19 pm
NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:17 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:55 pm
Stratton20 wrote:
Wed Apr 27, 2022 4:19 pm
NOAA has increased the probability of above normal precipitation in its 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks for SE Texas, dont know what they are seeing because the models are quite different
I think they mainly go by what the ensembles are showing instead of the operationals.
The ensembles (GEFS, GEPS) are picking up a backdoor front next week that appears to linger. That would be nice.


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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:50 am

Euro is now seeing the back door front late next week.

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don
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Re: April 2022

Post by don » Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:58 pm

12Z GFS looks pretty active in the long range FWIW as we enter the 2nd week of May.

Looks like the southern and central plains is about to get a big uptake in severe weather as we enter May.Now as far as any severe weather here locally is yet to be determined.One thing to keep in mind as we saw Monday,its common in the mid to long range this time of year for models to stall or wash out fronts too far to the north.Keeping the majority of rain north of us.But in reality a lot of times this time of year fronts will end up further south than what the models show in the mid range.So don't be surprised if the models trend wetter here in SE Texas over the next week.
Last edited by don on Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:45 pm

DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:49 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:44 pm
I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!
After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...
Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Thu Apr 28, 2022 4:33 pm

jasons2k wrote:
Thu Apr 28, 2022 3:45 pm
DoctorMu wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 8:49 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:44 pm
I am doubtful that this will be the only big rain event for the next 2 weeks. Typically, once a rainy pattern starts, it tends to cycle every 1-2 weeks. Fortunately, we are getting closer to the time when capping is not a big issue!
After next Monday, the sea breeze and tropical systems will be our main source of rain for the foreseeable future...
Don’t forget about NW flow aloft events. We often get a couple of those off the dryline in the May/Early June timeframe before it becomes truly summer.
Those NW aloft modes are nice, because we get drier air and rain. I suspect we'll see the seabreeze before NW aloft dry lines or cutoff ULLs. We'll see.

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jasons2k
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Re: April 2022

Post by jasons2k » Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:46 am

Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.

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don
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Re: April 2022

Post by don » Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:09 am

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:46 am
Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.
That's because those forecast are based on model data(I'm sure you already know that though :) ).So when the model flip flops between runs the automated forecast does also.I never pay any attention to app forecast for that reason.

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DoctorMu
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Re: April 2022

Post by DoctorMu » Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:57 am

jasons2k wrote:
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:46 am
Pretty much every time I refresh TWC app the 40% chance of rain on Saturday comes and goes. It’s like “now you see it…now you don’t…now you see it?”

It’s gone for now but NWS still shows 30%. I hope something can pop tomorrow.
Down to 20% here.

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