April 2022

[captainbarbossa19]

Unfortunately, the latest monthly CFS run from March 20th continues the drier anomalies over SE Texas during the month of April:




As far as the CanSIPS, the March run for the month of April won't initiate until March 30th. The Feb 28th run showed neutral to slightly below anomalies for most of SE Texas for April:





Just FYI, looking ahead, the latest CFS 3-month outlook continues with dry anomalies over SE Texas through the months of May & June:

Well, the Euro for two runs now is showing another significant system moving through towards the end of the month. April could be dry, but typically once you start getting systems every 7-10 days in spring, that is a good sign for rain. Also, these climate models often don't perform well.

For all intents and purposes, both of these climate models have been fairly accurate for the month of March so far showing drier than normal anomalies for many portions of Texas including most of SE Texas. For example, most of the Harris County rainfall average is just below one inch of rain since March 1st:

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/

I've personally only received around 0.60 inches of rain in my neighborhood since March 1st. If I don't receive any significant rains from this current 3/22 storm system, I will definitely finish the month well below average for the month. And yes one storm system can skew the validation of these outlooks with respect to a city and/or a region. As far as the month of April is concerned, we shall see.

Right. March has been drier than normal overall, but a model that forecasts drier weather for this month is more than likely going to be right most of the time. Let's not forget that despite being deep into a La Niña, Houston experienced its 5th wettest January on record. That could have been an anomaly in the pattern, but it happened nonetheless. Temperature-wise, climate models have not been performing well at all. January and February were both projected to be warmer than normal, but instead were colder. Until climate models start consistently performing better on a month-to-month basis, I do not give much weight to them. Shorter-range models are much more accurate and consistent.

[Cpv17]

There isn’t really much to talk about but the Euro has been showing this the past couple runs:



But it’s 10 days out.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run

Yeah it’s a good looking bowling ball.

[captainbarbossa19]

Cpv17 looks like it’s showing a cut off upper low on that run

Yeah it’s a good looking bowling ball.

Well the 0z Euro continues to insist a cutoff low developing out west of us towards the end of the run. It is not moving much, but I am starting to think that it senses the potential for a pattern change. I would not be surprised to see at some point in April a significant storm system bring heavy rain. Cutoff lows certainly begin to become more common in our area starting in April climatology wise.

[Cpv17]

Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah thays definitely surprising

[captainbarbossa19]

CPV17 yeah thays definitely surprising

I do not think we saw a single above-precipitation forecast for spring 2011. This is certainly heading in the right direction now! Looks we might just see April showers.

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like a good chance of rain may be coming up next week again. April starts in less than 2 days!

[Iceresistance]

Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

It's Hotlinked, It now says that it's Below Normal Rainfall

[mcheer23]

Rainfall totals the next 7 days...I do think these will increase some

[Cpv17]

Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

It's Hotlinked, It now says that it's Below Normal Rainfall

Oh yeah, I know. It always does that when I post those maps lol

[Iceresistance]

Well ummm, ok. I wasn’t expecting to see this:

It's Hotlinked, It now says that it's Below Normal Rainfall

Oh yeah, I know. It always does that when I post those maps lol

You can save them, upload them to a GIF uploader (Gifyu or Imgur) & there, the image is no longer hotlinked.

[don]

From the SPC this morning regarding next weeks system.

A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move across the
Southwest, southern Plains and into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley in
D5/Monday. Some severe potential appears likely across TX on
D5/Monday, but differences with the guidance regarding low-level
moisture and location of the surface features results in too much
uncertainty to delineate an area.

[Stratton20]

As I expected, I dont see a wet pattern taking shape, maybe a storm system every 7-10 days but thats about it

[Cpv17]

As I expected, I dont see a wet pattern taking shape, maybe a storm system every 7-10 days but thats about it

I’m beginning to think you don’t like rain much lol

Anyway, the 12z GFS looks decent. 1-2” over the next couple weeks.

[DoctorMu]

As I expected, I dont see a wet pattern taking shape, maybe a storm system every 7-10 days but thats about it

I’m beginning to think you don’t like rain much lol

Anyway, the 12z GFS looks decent. 1-2” over the next couple weeks.

That would be good enough.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 na I like rain, but I like it when we get a single day of rain followed by a good stretch of dry weather, multiple days of rain in a row is what i dont really like though

[captainbarbossa19]

As I expected, I dont see a wet pattern taking shape, maybe a storm system every 7-10 days but thats about it

I’m beginning to think you don’t like rain much lol

Anyway, the 12z GFS looks decent. 1-2” over the next couple weeks.

That would be good enough.

Agreed. Keep in mind that this amount is averaged too. Some areas will likely receive more! March and April are often dry, so this is a welcomed trend.

[mcheer23]

Day 4 Slight Risk